--- title: "鲍威尔 “告别日”+ Mag7 财报夜，市场拿什么硬扛？" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284360871.md" description: "明天最危险的剧本，是鲍威尔措辞偏鹰叠上 Mag 7 某家指引不够强。 两个叙事同向走弱，当天行情会比任何一个事件单独出问题难看。" datetime: "2026-04-28T10:22:08.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284360871.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284360871.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284360871.md) --- # 鲍威尔 “告别日”+ Mag7 财报夜，市场拿什么硬扛？ April 29 will be the most crowded trading day of the year. Three major events are squeezed into the same day: at 10:00 a.m. local time, the Senate Banking Committee will vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Powell's successor; at 2:00 p.m., the FOMC will release its interest rate statement—this will be Powell's last as Federal Reserve Chair; after hours, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Amazon will release their first-quarter earnings. The market's expectations are clear: the CME FedWatch tool indicates a nearly 100% probability of rates remaining unchanged, the Nasdaq closed at a record high last week, and 82% of companies reporting earnings this quarter have beaten expectations. Three events, three optimistic expectations, lined up independently. The problem is that these optimistic expectations share the same foundation: if the Federal Reserve can continue to "look through" oil prices at $108 per barrel, keeping the interest rate path unchanged, then the tech sector's forward P/E ratio of 25x can be "sustained." Any hawkish signal from Powell, or any crack in the Mag 7 earnings reports, could trigger massive volatility. ## **Powell's Final Remarks** The core of Powell's historical legacy rests on one thing: maintaining the Federal Reserve's policy independence during the toughest years of inflation. If his final statement before stepping down appears to compromise for the sake of the market or politics, the cost will be higher than any policy error. Coincidentally, the Senate is advancing the nomination of his successor on the same day. Warsh just concluded his congressional hearing, stating he would "maintain independence" and not act as Trump's "mouthpiece." The positions of both men will be read side-by-side on the same day. Powell has no room to appear soft. This is the April meeting, with no new dot plot and no updated economic projections. **The only channel for signaling is the statement wording and the press conference answers**, with every sentence carrying more weight than usual. With Brent crude at $108, the Fed's March statement already embedded the phrase "uncertainty regarding the impact of Middle East developments remains"—this is an interface reserved for tougher wording, not a qualitative conclusion. The most critical aspect to watch at the press conference is not "whether to cut rates," but how he characterizes oil prices: if he calls it a "temporary supply shock," the market will breathe a sigh of relief; if he says "upside risks to inflation persist," the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note will provide the answer within five minutes. ## **AI's First True Reckoning** Over the past two years, the Mag 7 collectively did one thing: spent astronomical sums building AI infrastructure, then convinced investors to wait with the promise that "the future will be huge." This logic begins to face scrutiny tonight. The combined AI capital expenditure of Microsoft, Google, Meta Platforms, and Amazon has exceeded $300 billion. The market's time window has always been "wait for earnings, look at cloud revenue, look at monetization." Now the earnings are here—how much of the money spent has already turned into revenue? Current figures beating expectations are largely priced in. **What truly moves stock prices is forward guidance, and every statement during the conference call regarding future spending and the timeline for returns.** ## **Which Company's Conference Call Is the Most Dangerous?** With four companies releasing earnings on the same day, the risk distribution is uneven. Microsoft is the first company to be scrutinized tonight. The consensus for Azure growth is around 38%, but simply hitting this number is not enough—the market really wants to see quantifiable revenue contributions from Copilot in the enterprise segment, which would prove the ultimate realization of Microsoft's two-year AI narrative. Q2 guidance below 36% would be a negative signal; exceeding 40% would be a true pleasant surprise. Alphabet's situation is slightly more complex than Microsoft's. Google Cloud is expected to grow by 49.6%, with the market having the highest growth expectations, but Gemini's commercialization has yet to provide clear financial figures. For the first time, Alphabet must answer this question with specific revenue rather than product demos. If Cloud revenue beats expectations but signals for Gemini monetization remain vague, the reaction could be colder than imagined. Amazon AWS grew by 24% last quarter, with annualized AI service revenue exceeding $15 billion; it needs to hold this line tonight. A growth rate dropping below 20% would be one of the watershed moments for sentiment throughout this earnings season. **Meta Platforms has the most dangerous conference call tonight.** The flexibility for revenue and EPS is not large. **The real suspense lies in the $135 billion annual capital expenditure plan.** This figure requires Zuckerberg to re-explain every quarter: the spending is necessary, the return path is clear, and the timeline is credible. Any phrasing suggesting "continuously evaluating based on market feedback" will be interpreted as wavering. In past quarters, whenever there was slight hesitation in capex statements, Meta Platforms' after-hours reaction was ugly. The simultaneous earnings releases of the four companies bring another issue: **if one company misses expectations, will market sentiment be hedged by the other three, or will that one company's crack be amplified into a problem for the entire AI narrative? This divergence scenario is not fully priced in.** ## **Optimistic Expectations Built on the Same Foundation** Tomorrow's information will land in chronological order: at 2:00 p.m., the statement comes out first, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield serving as the fastest thermometer, providing the market's initial judgment within five minutes. At 2:30 p.m., Powell's press conference begins, representing the window with the highest information density of the day. The focus is on whether he identifies "upside risks to inflation" or a "temporary supply shock," two characterizations corresponding to two completely different interest rate path expectations. After hours, Microsoft's Azure Q2 guidance will land first, followed by Meta Platforms' capex statements as the finale—this is the moment with the most concentrated information of the entire earnings season tonight, and also the place most prone to surprises. The VIX is at 18, indicating extremely insufficient option protection. Once any negative trigger occurs, the drawdown speed will be much faster than normal. **The most dangerous scenario for tomorrow is Powell's hawkish tone overlapping with weak guidance from one of the Mag 7 companies.** If both narratives weaken simultaneously, the market performance will be worse than if either event had gone wrong individually—because both events are saying the same thing: this market's optimism is built on a narrowing foundation. ### Related Stocks - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [TSL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [NDAQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NDAQ.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [AMZN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZN.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [.NDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [META.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/META.US.md) - [AAPB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPB.US.md) - [GGLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GGLL.US.md) - [TSLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [TESL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [NVDU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDU.US.md) - [QQQM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [QQEW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQEW.US.md) - [TQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [AMZW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZW.US.md) - [METU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/METU.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [QLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QLD.US.md) - [QQWZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQWZ.US.md) - [MSFL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFL.US.md) - [MSFO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFO.US.md) - [AAPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPX.US.md) - [MSFU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFU.US.md) - [PSQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSQ.US.md) - [AMZU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZU.US.md) - [GOOW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOW.US.md) - [ONEQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ONEQ.US.md) - [TSLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Can you invest in SpaceX pre-IPO?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284334295.md) - [Natural Investments LLC Invests $11.55 Million in Alphabet Inc. $GOOGL](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284348125.md) - [Hidden and Emerging Risks Cloud Nasdaq OMX’s Outlook and Valuation](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284072003.md) - [META Will Report Q1 Earnings on April 29 — Can Zuckerberg's AI Bet Fuel Another Stock Rally?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284360394.md) - [Meta’s loss is Thinking Machines gain](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284053848.md)