---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The three major stock index futures show mixed performance as OpenAI's growth slows, putting pressure on related stocks"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284376692.md"
description: "1. On April 28 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures were mixed before the market opened. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 0.20%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.68%, and Nasdaq futures were down 1.32%. 
2. As of the time of writing, Germany's DAX index was down 0.54%, the UK's FTSE 100 index was up 0.04%, France's CAC40 index was down 0.32%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.40%. 
3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 4.70%, priced at $100.90 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 3.51%, priced at $105.26 per barrel. Market news indicates that the earnings season is approaching, and Morgan Stanley has highlighted key points for tech giants: whether AI investments yield returns, and revenue growth is the first signal. With major tech companies set to announce earnings this week, Morgan Stanley's senior internet analyst pointed out that investors should pay close attention to revenue growth, as it is the clearest indicator of the return on large-scale capital investments. The analyst stated, \"The primary signal for measuring the return on all this capital expenditure is revenue performance. Investors need to see signs of accelerating revenue growth from each company's key performance indicators.\" The analyst expressed confidence that relevant tech companies will complete their data center expansion plans this year, but he also noted that there is greater uncertainty regarding the outlook for 2027 and 2028. He also warned that inflation in components such as DRAM memory could bring cost pressures. Not just software is suffering! Goldman Sachs warns: concerns about AI disruption are spreading, and U.S. stock valuations may face reconstruction"
datetime: "2026-04-28T12:59:44.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284376692.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284376692.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284376692.md)
---

# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The three major stock index futures show mixed performance as OpenAI's growth slows, putting pressure on related stocks

1.  As of April 28 (Tuesday) pre-market, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed. As of the time of publication, Dow futures were up 0.20%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.68%, and Nasdaq futures were down 1.32%.

![21.png](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/6143e9e101193593e20d12cdce8c849c?x-oss-process=style/lg)

1.  As of the time of publication, the German DAX index was down 0.54%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.04%, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.32%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.40%.

![22.png](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/d7f079d911c6f0162fb8464c591c3f12?x-oss-process=style/lg)

1.  As of the time of publication, WTI crude oil was up 4.70%, priced at $100.90 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 3.51%, priced at $105.26 per barrel.

![23.png](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/5e45f5760cf6f89ae53db244f12ed032?x-oss-process=style/lg)

**Market News**

**The earnings season is approaching, and Morgan Stanley highlights key points for tech giants: Is there a return on AI investment? Revenue growth rate is the first signal.** As major tech companies are set to release earnings reports this week, Morgan Stanley's senior internet analyst pointed out that investors should pay close attention to revenue growth rates, which are the clearest indicators of the return on large-scale capital investments. The analyst stated, "The primary signal for measuring the return on all this capital expenditure is revenue performance. Investors need to see signs of accelerating revenue growth from each company's key performance indicators." The analyst expressed confidence that relevant tech companies would complete their data center expansion plans this year, but he also noted that there is greater uncertainty regarding the outlook for 2027 and 2028. He also warned that inflation in components such as DRAM memory could bring cost pressures.

**Not just software suffering! Goldman Sachs warns: Concerns over AI disruption are spreading, and U.S. stock valuations may face reconstruction.** Goldman Sachs analysts stated that the market is increasingly worried that artificial intelligence (AI) may erode the long-term profitability of U.S. companies. Against this backdrop, investors are once again focusing on the core question— to what extent do stock valuations depend on long-term profit expectations ten years out, especially in industries like software. The firm pointed out that profit expectations ten years out (often referred to as terminal value) currently account for about 75% of the market capitalization of S&P 500 constituents, close to the highest level in 25 years. Goldman Sachs stated, "The current proportion of terminal value in overall valuations is at a historical high, highly similar to phases like the dot-com bubble, when the market was also extremely optimistic about long-term growth expectations." Goldman Sachs expects that the debate surrounding the disruptive impact of AI, along with the resulting uncertainty regarding the terminal values of many companies, will continue for at least several quarters **US-Iran talks have changed again.** The uncertainty of the geopolitical situation seems to be increasing. According to previous reports, the United States has received a new negotiation proposal from Iran through Pakistan. However, the latest news indicates that earlier that day, Trump discussed the proposal put forward by Iran with his national security team, and a U.S. official stated, "He (Trump) does not like this proposal." The official indicated that Trump was dissatisfied with Iran's negotiation proposal because it did not address Iran's nuclear program. Sources from the mediator Pakistan said that efforts to bridge the U.S.-Iran divide have never ceased. However, hopes for restoring peace efforts are fading.

**"Anchor of global asset pricing" causing a new wave? Walsh is about to take the helm of the Federal Reserve, and the "steep trade" in U.S. Treasuries is on the horizon.** An increasing number of senior market strategists on Wall Street have stated that if Walsh, the next Federal Reserve chair nominee by Trump, officially takes the helm, the Federal Reserve under his leadership may free the approximately $31 trillion U.S. Treasury market from narrow trading fluctuations. Strategists are urging investors to position themselves for a "steep trade," where short-term U.S. Treasury yields ultimately decline, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields of 10 years and above rise. The core logic behind this is: if Walsh pushes for continuous interest rate cuts under Trump's pressure to lower short-end yields, while balance sheet reduction and populist-style aggressive fiscal stimulus lead to an expanded fiscal deficit, long-term inflation risks and term premiums will support a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.

**Bridgewater founder Dalio warns that the U.S. has fallen into stagflation, and Walsh's rate cuts may damage the Federal Reserve's credibility.** Billionaire investor and Bridgewater founder Dalio warns that the U.S. is clearly in a stagflation phase, and policymakers should remain cautious rather than rush to ease monetary policy. He pointed out that if Walsh cuts rates in the current environment, it could not only weaken market confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation but also damage the central bank's credibility at a critical moment. Market participants believe that Dalio's views highlight that the current policy discussion has shifted from "when to cut rates" to "whether to maintain high rates for a longer period." Amid persistent inflation stickiness, fiscal stimulus, and a surge in artificial intelligence investments, the market remains skeptical about prematurely easing policies.

**JPMorgan warns: the global oil "mathematical model" has failed, and inventory bottoms may trigger a retaliatory surge in oil prices.** Nine weeks after the outbreak of war in the Middle East, the global economy continues to face a record oil supply gap. However, oil prices have remained relatively restrained, far below historical highs. JPMorgan oil strategists believe this situation may change soon, as there is a "deviation" in the supply-demand calculation formula. Data shows that as of late April, the scale of global supply disruptions has reached 13.7 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly 15% of the global total demand of about 100 million barrels per day. The option to fill the supply gap using remaining capacity is unavailable due to most of the world's remaining capacity being located in the Persian Gulf region. In the U.S., increasing an additional 1 million barrels of capacity typically takes 6 to 12 months to bring to market. Meanwhile, as countries tap into strategic reserves to prevent a sharp rise in oil prices, the inventory drawdown in April reached an "astonishing" 7.1 million barrels per day **Individual Stock News**

**OpenAI's growth slowdown shakes the market! Related stocks under pressure.** Reports indicate that OpenAI recently failed to meet its internally set user growth and sales targets, raising concerns about whether the significant investments by tech companies in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure can yield reasonable returns. A series of stocks associated with OpenAI have seen declines. In pre-market trading on Tuesday, shares of several core partners of OpenAI fell— as of the time of writing, Microsoft (MSFT.US) was down nearly 1%, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) was down over 2%, AMD (AMD.US) was down nearly 6%, and Oracle (ORCL.US) and CoreWeave (CRWV.US) were down nearly 7%.

**Barclays (BCS.US) bad debt provisions overshadow trading halo: Q1 earnings performance is mediocre, with £228 million provision for MFS bankruptcy.** The British bank reported a pre-tax profit of £2.8 billion for January to March, slightly up from £2.7 billion in the same period last year; according to LSEG data, this performance met analysts' expectations. Revenue grew 5.8% year-on-year to £8.16 billion. Investment banking revenue grew 4% year-on-year to £4 billion, in line with analysts' previous expectations of £3.9 billion. Additionally, the bank made a loss provision of £228 million (approximately $270 million) due to risk exposure to a single company. Although the bank did not disclose the specific company that triggered the £200 million provision, investors generally believe it to be the loan institution MFS, which was announced to have gone bankrupt earlier. As of the time of writing, Barclays was down over 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

**Oil trading business becomes a "cash magnet"! BP (BP.US) Q1 profits surge, but rising debt remains a concern.** BP's Q1 profits saw a significant increase due to soaring energy prices and market turmoil caused by the Middle East conflict, which boosted profits from its oil trading business. The financial report showed that BP's total revenue for Q1 was $53.371 billion, an 11% year-on-year increase; adjusted net profit was $3.198 billion, a 132% year-on-year increase, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.64 billion. The company's retail and refining business reported an adjusted net profit of $3.203 billion for Q1, a year-on-year increase of 373% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 138%. Meanwhile, a key debt indicator that the market is closely watching has risen, with net debt increasing by 14% quarter-on-quarter to $25.309 billion. As of the time of writing, BP was up over 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

**Generic drug competition impacts performance! Novartis (NVS.US) Q1 sales decline for the first time in two years, core operating profit below expectations.** Novartis reported Q1 profits for 2026 that fell short of analysts' expectations, with unexpected sales declines due to severe competition from generic drugs affecting some of its best-selling medications. The financial report showed that Novartis' Q1 net sales were $13.113 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, marking the first year-on-year decline in nearly two years; core operating profit fell 12% year-on-year to $4.897 billion, below analysts' expectations of $5.18 billion; core earnings per share were $1.99, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. The report indicated that key products facing generic competition, such as Entresto, Tasigna, and Promacta, saw sales declines of 42% year-on-year in Q1 59% and 66%. However, a series of other innovative drugs saw significant sales growth. As of the time of writing, Novartis Pharmaceuticals fell over 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

**General Motors (GM.US) Q1 adjusted EPS significantly exceeded expectations, expected to receive a $500 million tariff refund.** The financial report shows that General Motors' Q1 revenue was $43.62 billion, better than the market estimate of $43.4 billion; adjusted EBIT was $4.25 billion, with a market estimate of $3.02 billion; adjusted EPS was $3.70, compared to the market estimate of $2.60. The company expects an adjusted EPS for the full year of $11.50 to $13.50, up from the previous estimate of $11.00 to $13.00. Additionally, the company expects an adjusted EBIT for the full year of $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion, which is an upward revision of $500 million from the previous estimate, the same amount it expects to recover from the tariff refund following the U.S. Supreme Court ruling. Previously, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the large-scale tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was illegal. As of the time of writing, General Motors rose over 1% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

**United Parcel Service (UPS.US) Q1 revenue and EPS both exceeded expectations, maintaining full-year performance guidance.** The financial report shows that United Parcel Service's Q1 revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to $21.2 billion, better than the market expectation of $21 billion; adjusted EPS was $1.07, better than the market expectation of $1.01. The company maintained its full-year performance outlook, expecting 2026 revenue of $89.7 billion and operating profit of $8.6 billion, both in line with market expectations. Despite the better-than-expected Q1 performance, the company also stated that recent transformation measures should enable it to return to growth in the future, but investors remain uneasy. They are unwilling to wait for improvements over the next few quarters and hope to see results now. As of the time of writing, United Parcel Service fell over 4% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

**Coca-Cola (KO.US) Q1 performance exceeded expectations, raising full-year EPS guidance.** The financial report shows that Coca-Cola's Q1 revenue increased by 12% year-on-year to $12.5 billion, better than the market expectation of $12.25 billion; adjusted EPS was $0.86, better than the market expectation of $0.81. Management reaffirmed its previous outlook for organic revenue growth of 4% to 5% for 2026 and expects full-year adjusted comparable EPS to grow by 8% to 9% (previously expected to grow by 7% to 8%). As of the time of writing, Coca-Cola rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

**Important economic data and event forecasts**

Beijing time 22:00 U.S. April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

**Earnings Forecasts**

Wednesday morning: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US), Starbucks (SBUX.US), Robinhood (HOOD.US), T-Mobile US (TMUS.US), Visa (V.US)

Wednesday pre-market: TotalEnergies (TTE.US), UBS (UBS.US), AstraZeneca (AZN.US), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US), Deutsche Bank (DB.US), Avis Budget Group (CAR.US), Daqo New Energy (DQ.US), United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC.US)

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