--- title: "UAE Exits OPEC: The End of an Era, or the Start of a Greater Rift?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284406805.md" description: "The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC+ on May 1, marking a landmark event in which Middle Eastern oil producers pursue strategic autonomy triggered by the war with Iran. This move may prompt more countries to follow suit, further weakening OPEC's collective action capability. The UAE aims to break free from Saudi-led collective decision-making and seek to release production capacity at its own pace. Analysts believe that the true market impact may only fully materialize when supply normalizes after the war" datetime: "2026-04-28T14:35:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284406805.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284406805.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284406805.md) --- # UAE Exits OPEC: The End of an Era, or the Start of a Greater Rift? The UAE announced it will formally withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance on May 1. Analysts pointed out that this is not an isolated technical decision, but rather **the direct result of rising nationalism and strategic autonomy among Middle Eastern oil-producing countries triggered by the war with Iran**. **This move may prompt more countries to follow suit, further weakening OPEC's collective action capability.** On April 28, according to Bloomberg, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei stated that the market supply imbalance caused by the Middle East conflict provided a "suitable timing" for the exit. He noted that the current market is in a state of supply shortage, so the immediate impact of the withdrawal on the supply and demand landscape is relatively limited. The UAE believes that in the face of market volatility brought about by the war, the country needs to respond more flexibly to market demands rather than being constrained by collective decision-making mechanisms. Following the announcement, WTI crude oil futures briefly fell before quickly rebounding, while Brent crude traded near $104 per barrel. Meanwhile, since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, the sovereign credit risk of the UAE has risen significantly. Previously, the UAE had applied to the Federal Reserve for a currency swap line to alleviate liquidity pressures on its domestic banking system. ## Aiming to Independently Set Production Policies and Release Capacity at Its Own Pace The UAE's official news agency, WAM, issued a statement saying that the decision to withdraw from OPEC+ aligns with the country's long-term strategy and economic vision, aiming to "enhance flexibility in responding to market dynamics," and reaffirmed its continued participation in the global energy market in a "responsible and sustainable" manner. The statement pointed out that the UAE's strategic direction of accelerating domestic energy investment and focusing on future markets requires it to have the ability to independently set production policies. The statement also mentioned that geopolitical turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Gulf is affecting the supply landscape, while the medium-to-long-term growth trend in global energy demand remains clear—this statement was interpreted by outsiders as **the UAE intending to gradually release production capacity at its own pace outside the OPEC framework.** The UAE joined OPEC under the name of Abu Dhabi in 1967 and continued its membership after the formation of the federation in 1971, having been a member for over fifty years. More than half a century of membership makes this withdrawal historically significant. ## Long-standing Disagreements Between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Withdrawal Was Long in the Making This withdrawal was not without precedent. **There have long been disagreements between the UAE and OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, with conflicts centered on production quotas and competition for regional political influence.** At various OPEC+ meetings, the UAE has repeatedly sought to deploy new production capacity investments, but was obstructed by Saudi Arabia, which advocated for production cuts. This contradiction had previously pushed Abu Dhabi to the brink of withdrawal several times, and this time it finally took action. The UAE currently produces approximately 4.05 million barrels per day, making it one of the largest members within OPEC, and plans to increase its production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027. OPEC currently has 11 member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. As a major oil-producing country, **the UAE's departure substantially weakens OPEC's ability to "maintain a floor for oil prices through collective production cuts."** Matthew Cowley, an analyst at UBS, warned in a report to clients that OPEC will find it harder to deal with oversupply, especially during periods of economic slowdown. ## Exit Impacts OPEC Coordination Mechanism, Real Challenges May Emerge After the War OPEC was founded in September 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, with the original intention of countering the dominance of Western oil giants in the global crude oil market. Today, the Middle East conflict has severely impacted Persian Gulf crude oil exports, forcing countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq to significantly cut actual exports, limiting the room for large-scale production increases in the short term. This means that **the direct market impact of the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC may only truly manifest after the war ends and the supply landscape tends to normalize.** Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, actual exports from various countries are currently severely restricted, making it neither realistic nor necessary for the UAE to immediately increase production on a large scale after its withdrawal. The real challenge of its independent release of production capacity at its own pace will fully erupt when supply normalizes after the war, at which point it will pose a direct threat to the remaining production discipline within OPEC. The UAE's departure has further deepened external questions about OPEC's future cohesion and form of existence. ### Related Stocks - [BP.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BP.UK.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VDE.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXC.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md) - [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UBS.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [UAE leaves OPEC and OPEC+ in huge blow to global oil producers' group](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284384272.md) - [ROI-UAE exit strips OPEC of clout, risks bitter price war: Bousso](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284431283.md) - [US pump prices near 4 year high on Iran war disruption, refinery outages](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284421919.md) - [GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil prices hit $110 while stocks waver on Iran impasse](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284344885.md) - [Trump Says He Has 'All The Cards' As Iran Talks Halt: Brent Crude Jumps To $107, Dow Futures Slip 52 Points](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284152025.md)