--- title: "Brent Crude Surpasses $110 for the First Time in Three Weeks" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284466121.md" description: "The core driver is the ongoing stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz causing global oil inventories to deplete at a historic rate of over 10 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, soaring oil prices are pushing up yields on US, UK, and German government bonds, reigniting inflation concerns. Institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America warn that if the strait remains blocked for an extended period, Brent crude could surge to between $120 and $150" datetime: "2026-04-29T00:25:17.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284466121.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284466121.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284466121.md) --- # Brent Crude Surpasses $110 for the First Time in Three Weeks Brent crude broke through the $110 mark on Tuesday, **hitting a three-week ATH**, as the uncertain prospects for US-Iran peace talks became the core driver behind the rise in oil prices. With the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continuing, the supply gap in the global energy market is widening at a record pace, inflationary pressure is spreading to the bond market, and the deeper shocks to the petrochemical industry chain may only just be beginning to manifest. On Tuesday, Brent crude touched an intraday high of $112.70 per barrel, a gain of 4.1%, marking the first time it has broken through the $110 level in three weeks—the last time Brent traded above $110 was before Trump announced a temporary ceasefire on April 7. At the close, Brent settled at $111.26, up 2.8%; US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $99.93, up 3.7%. **The core driver pushing oil prices higher is the sluggish progress in US-Iran negotiations.** The White House stated on Monday that US officials are reviewing the latest proposal from Iran but emphasized that Trump's "red line" stance on any agreement remains unchanged. Secretary of State Rubio stated that nuclear issues "remain a core topic." Jim Reid, Head of Macro Research at Deutsche Bank, pointed out, **"The market has been latching onto any signs of peace talks, and the absence of such signs is exacerbating fears of a breakdown in negotiations."** Sustained high oil prices are reigniting market vigilance regarding inflation. The yield on the UK 10-year government bond rose to 5% on Tuesday, touching this level for the first time since late March; the yield on the 30-year UK gilt rose to approximately 5.7%, approaching its highest level of this century. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.36%, while the German equivalent also rose 2 basis points to 3.06%. ## Peace Talks Stalled, Oil Prices Lose Downside Support **The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the fundamental reason for this round of oil price surges.** Since the conflict erupted, Iran has nearly brought oil transportation through the strait to a standstill and launched attacks on energy facilities in the Gulf region, causing Brent crude to climb from below $60 per barrel at the start of the year to a high of $119. After Trump announced a temporary ceasefire on April 7, oil prices fell sharply, dropping to a low of $86.09 per barrel. However, as peace talks progressed slowly, market sentiment reversed once again. According to Xinhua News Agency, White House Press Secretary Leavitt confirmed at a press conference on the 27th that President Trump and his national security team met that day to discuss the new negotiation proposal put forward by Iran. Reportedly, Leavitt stated on Monday that Trump had convened national security officials to review Iran's latest proposal and said Trump would comment on it "soon." Rubio stated that nuclear issues "are the root cause of our involvement in all this and remain a core topic," and refused to speculate on whether Trump would accept Iran's proposal to open the strait while delaying nuclear negotiations. During Tuesday's trading session, news that the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC briefly narrowed the gains in oil prices, but ultimately failed to change the overall upward trend. Meanwhile, with Brent crude returning above $100 for nearly a week, market concerns about inflation are accelerating their transmission to the bond market. Deutsche Bank's Reid stated, **"Given that Brent has remained above $100 for nearly a week, broader inflation concerns are clearly back on the agenda, driving weakness in the bond market."** The UK government bond market is particularly sensitive to this round of energy shocks. The yield on the 10-year UK gilt rose to 5%, and the 30-year yield approached its century-high, indicating that the market is repricing longer-term inflation risks and betting that central banks will have to raise interest rates further to curb inflation. ## Record Supply Gap, Unprecedented Inventory Depletion Rate As mentioned in a Wall Street CN article, a report released by Goldman Sachs on April 26 showed that a daily loss of approximately 14.4 million barrels of crude oil production in the Persian Gulf is driving global oil inventories to deplete at a rate of 11 to 12 million barrels per day, setting a historical record. This daily depletion volume exceeds Germany's entire daily oil consumption. From a supply and demand structure perspective, the global oil market originally had a surplus of about 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, but at the current depletion rate, a supply gap of 9.4 million barrels per day is expected to emerge by the second quarter of 2026—a reversal from surplus to shortage in just one quarter. Jefferies' Chief European Economist Mohit Kumar warned: **"The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the greater the negative impact on the global economy."** The article also pointed out that multiple institutions have raised their oil price forecasts, with upside risks significantly outweighing downside risks. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $90 per barrel and set various scenarios: > If exports through the strait return to normal between early May and mid-June, the average price in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be below $80 per barrel; if recovery is delayed until the end of July, the average price will exceed $100 per barrel; if flow through the Strait of Hormuz cannot long-term recover to more than 70%, the average price could approach $120 per barrel. Bank of America provided a more aggressive assessment: > If the strait maintains a fragile ceasefire state of "neither fully open nor fully closed," the average price of Brent in 2026 could reach $120 per barrel; if the conflict restarts and extends into the summer, the average price could reach $150 per barrel or even higher. Citigroup delayed the baseline scenario for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the end of May and set the 0-to-3-month Brent target price at $120 per barrel. ### Related Stocks - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OXY.US.md) - [BP.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BP.UK.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XES.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VDE.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXC.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [DB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DB.US.md) - [DBK.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBK.DE.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [JEF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JEF.US.md) - [BAC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC.US.md) - [C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C.US.md) - [03KB.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03KB.DE.md) - [DPB.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DPB.DE.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/W4VR.SG.md) - [BAC-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-Q.US.md) - [BML-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-L.US.md) - [BAC-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-L.US.md) - [BAC-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-K.US.md) - [BML-H.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-H.US.md) - [BAC-N.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-N.US.md) - [BAC-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-E.US.md) - [MER-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MER-K.US.md) - [BAC-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-O.US.md) - [BML-G.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-G.US.md) - [BAC-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-M.US.md) - [BAC-B.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-B.US.md) - [BML-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-J.US.md) - [BAC-S.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-S.US.md) - [BAC-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-P.US.md) - [8648.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8648.JP.md) - [C-R.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C-R.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Trump Says He Has 'All The Cards' As Iran Talks Halt: Brent Crude Jumps To $107, Dow Futures Slip 52 Points](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284152025.md) - [Citi raises Brent forecast for 2026; sees $150 oil if Hormuz disruption persists](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284146793.md) - [GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil jumps, stock futures slip as US-Iran talks stall](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284130855.md) - [GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil prices hit $110 while stocks waver on Iran impasse](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284344885.md) - [Citi raises Brent oil price forecast for remainder of 2026](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284138493.md)