--- title: "Two Months into the Iran War: Who Are the Biggest Winners and Losers Among Major Asset Classes?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284482511.md" description: "Two months after the outbreak of the Iran war, the global asset landscape has undergone a dramatic reshaping: Brent crude oil surged 49%, leading all assets, while U.S. stocks hit record highs thanks to their energy export advantage. South Korea's KOSPI index saw its year-to-date return soar by 58%. In contrast, the Eurozone became a hard-hit area due to its energy dependence. The most anomalous signal came from precious metals, with both gold and silver falling more than 10%, as the century-old safe-haven logic faltered in the face of rate hike expectations" datetime: "2026-04-29T02:24:31.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284482511.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284482511.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284482511.md) --- # Two Months into the Iran War: Who Are the Biggest Winners and Losers Among Major Asset Classes? It has been two months since the outbreak of the Iran war, and this conflict is reshaping the performance landscape of major global asset classes. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid conducted a systematic review of major financial assets. The results showed that while the trends of some assets closely matched the traditional oil shock script, several unexpected deviations also emerged. Oil prices were undoubtedly the biggest winners, with the front-month Brent crude contract rising cumulatively by 49% over the two months. Meanwhile, U.S. assets significantly outperformed, leveraging the structural advantage of being a net energy exporter, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices refreshing historical records. Eurozone assets lagged across the board due to greater energy exposure, and when measured in U.S. dollars, the decline was even more severe due to the weakening euro exchange rate. The performance of precious metals constituted the most significant anomaly in this round of shocks—both gold and silver have fallen by more than 10% since the conflict began, marking a clear deviation from traditional safe-haven logic. The bond market was also under pressure, with yields on 10-year government bonds in major global economies rising sharply. ## Oil Prices Lead Gains, Bond Market Suffers Heavy Losses **Oil prices lead gains, but market expects the shock to eventually fade.** The front-month Brent crude contract rose by as much as 49% over the two months, making it the best-performing asset among all classes. However, the six-month Brent contract rose by only 25%. The relatively flat forward curve indicates that investors currently view this surge in energy prices as a temporary shock rather than a structural shift. **U.S. stocks hit record highs, South Korean stocks unexpectedly strengthen.** As a net energy exporter, the United States faced relatively limited negative transmission from the oil price shock. Coupled with a strong rebound in tech stocks in April, the U.S. stock market stood out among major global markets. The South Korean KOSPI index also recorded gains since the outbreak of the conflict, with its total year-to-date return in local currency terms exceeding 58%, making it another standout market in this round of geopolitical shocks. **Eurozone lags across the board, energy exposure proves fatal.** In sharp contrast to the United States, Eurozone assets continued to underperform, with higher dependence on energy imports being the core drag. When measured in U.S. dollar terms, the decline in Eurozone assets was further amplified by the depreciation of the euro. Even though the market had already priced in at least two rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year, it failed to effectively boost the relative performance of Eurozone assets. **Precious metals fall anomalously, rate hike expectations suppress safe-haven demand.** Both gold and silver have fallen by at least 10% since the outbreak of the conflict, which is quite rare in historical oil shock cycles. Jim Reid offered two explanations for this: First, both were previously at historical highs and faced inherent pressure for a correction. Second, the market's repricing of the rate hike path reduced demand for precious metals, as their prices typically have an inverse relationship with real interest rates. Overall, while this deviation is anomalous, it is not difficult to understand. **Global bond market suffers heavy losses, inflation and fiscal pressures push up yields.** The bond market also suffered heavy losses in this round of shocks. Over the two months, the yield on 10-year UK government bonds rose by 74 basis points, France by 47 basis points, the United States by 40 basis points, Germany by 39 basis points, and Japan by 35 basis points. Jim Reid pointed out that the drivers behind the rise in yields came from two directions: first, the inflationary pressure brought about by soaring energy prices, and second, market concerns about further fiscal easing in various countries. Notably, before the war broke out, global bond yields were at relatively low levels due to deflationary expectations from artificial intelligence and concerns about job substitution—macro narratives that now seem like a distant memory. ### Related Stocks - [600489.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600489.CN.md) - [GOLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.US.md) - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OXY.US.md) - [600547.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600547.CN.md) - [AEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AEM.US.md) - [SLV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SLV.US.md) - [NUGT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NUGT.US.md) - [GLDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDM.US.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [GDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDX.US.md) - [SGDJ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGDJ.US.md) - [GBUG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GBUG.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VDE.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) - [GDXJ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXJ.US.md) - [JNUG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JNUG.US.md) - [SLVR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SLVR.US.md) - [AGQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AGQ.US.md) - [DB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DB.US.md) - [DBK.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBK.DE.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [03KB.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03KB.DE.md) - [DPB.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DPB.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [The global energy order is breaking down](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284537393.md) - [Silver extends losses as US-Iran stalemate and rate hike bets weigh on precious metals](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283818616.md) - [Trump Says He Has 'All The Cards' As Iran Talks Halt: Brent Crude Jumps To $107, Dow Futures Slip 52 Points](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284152025.md) - [US pump prices near 4 year high on Iran war disruption, refinery outages](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284421919.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold falls with focus on key central bank meetings](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284256391.md)