---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Storage Chip Stocks Surge in Pre-Market, Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Earnings Reports from Four Major Tech Giants Approaching"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284568215.md"
description: "U.S. stock index futures are all up, with market trends showing the Dow futures up 0.02%, S&P 500 futures up 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.34%. Goldman Sachs warns of a potential pullback in the short term but expects the S&P 500 to rise significantly by the end of the year. HSBC has upgraded its rating on the U.S. stock market to \"Overweight,\" believing that AI-driven earnings growth will drive the market"
datetime: "2026-04-29T12:11:02.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284568215.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284568215.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284568215.md)
---

# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Storage Chip Stocks Surge in Pre-Market, Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Earnings Reports from Four Major Tech Giants Approaching

## Pre-Market Market Trends

1.  As of April 29 (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.02%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.34%.

![41.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260429/1777464237959362.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.13%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.80%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.34%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.19%.

![42.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260429/1777464241689394.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 3.55%, priced at $103.48 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 3.09%, priced at $107.63 per barrel.

![43.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260429/1777464244525904.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**CTA ammunition exhausted and positions overheated! Ahead of earnings disclosures from tech giants, Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm for a stock market correction.** John Flood, a partner at Goldman Sachs and head of U.S. equity market execution services, pointed out that as U.S. and global stock markets become increasingly crowded, and the strong buying power of one of the key institutional forces, CTA, is about to turn into selling pressure, stock market investors should prepare for a certain degree of correction in the short term. Ahead of the earnings reports from the five major tech giants this Friday, Goldman Sachs strategists warned that the exhaustion of marginal buying from CTAs, pension fund rebalancing selling pressure, hedge funds reducing leverage, and deteriorating market breadth indicators could collectively trigger a short-term correction. However, Flood also emphasized that the long-term bullish outlook for the stock market has not been overturned, and the S&P 500 will be "significantly higher" by the end of the year, with corrections presenting major opportunities for buying on dips.

**Middle East conflict gives way to profit narrative! HSBC calls for "overweight" on U.S. stocks.** Signs of easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East have shifted the core narrative of the global stock market back to AI-driven earnings growth factors, prompting international financial giant HSBC to upgrade its rating on the U.S. stock market. HSBC senior strategist Alastair Pinder raised the rating of the U.S. stock market from "neutral" to a bullish rating equivalent to "buy"/"overweight," noting that the momentum of AI-driven earnings expansion has "clearly turned positive." Pinder pointed out that for the three months ending in March, overall profits for the S&P 500 are expected to grow by 14% compared to the same period last year, marking the fastest expansion rate since 2024.

**UBS CEO pours cold water: Financial markets are overly optimistic about the prospects of the Middle East conflict, and a V-shaped rebound scenario may not repeat.** Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS Group, warned that there is a risk of excessive optimism in financial markets regarding the Middle East conflict Despite the lack of signs for a sustainable solution to the Middle East conflict, the stock market continues to "play music and dance." The most representative of this is the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index both reached new highs on Monday. El-Monti stated that investors have experienced multiple "V-shaped" recoveries in recent years, where the market quickly returns to normal. He said, "The market is quite optimistic, hoping that the final outcome will indeed be so." However, he also added that governments around the world have little room left to stimulate economic growth and emphasized that diversified allocation is a way to guard against the risk of market reversals.

**More market-sensitive than interest rate decisions! The power transition at the Federal Reserve is on a countdown, with Powell's future being the biggest suspense.** The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic growth outlook and the transition of the highest leadership at the Federal Reserve looms over this week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Economists generally expect that Federal Reserve policymakers will announce a decision to keep interest rates unchanged after the rate meeting on Wednesday (Thursday morning Beijing time). However, compared to the final interest rate decision, the market seems to be more focused on the future of current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. In what may be Powell's last press conference as chairman, investors will actively seek clues to determine how long they are willing to maintain a patient stance on monetary policy without changing interest rates. If Powell continues to serve as a governor after his term ends, the continuity of Federal Reserve policy will be stronger; if he leaves, Walsh will have more room to reshape the committee's communication framework.

**The strange phenomenon behind high oil prices: Options traders have begun to prepare for a potential oil crash.** Despite Wall Street generally predicting that oil prices will remain above $100 per barrel, with inventories continuing to shrink and the Strait of Hormuz nearly fully blocked, some traders have started buying options to hedge against the risk of a sudden de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran situation. Current bullish sentiment in the crude oil options market has dropped to its lowest level in two months, with a significant amount of bearish options spread trading this week, a strategy typically used to hedge against selling risks. Since the fragile ceasefire agreement reached in mid-April, the volume of bearish options for Brent crude has exceeded that of bullish options, contrasting with earlier this year when trading was mainly focused on betting on rising oil prices. Traders who grew up in a market environment dominated by Trump have learned not to ignore tail risks.

**Geopolitical conflicts have severely impacted gold prices, with global central banks hoarding 244 tons of gold in the first quarter.** In the first quarter of this year, global central banks increased their gold holdings at the fastest pace in over a year, spurred by a wave of purchases due to a sharp drop in gold prices, enough to offset the selling impact from a few institutions. The World Gold Council estimates that global central banks net bought 244 tons of gold in the first quarter, up from 208 tons in the previous quarter. John Reade, chief strategist at the World Gold Council, stated, "This is the first time in a while that we have seen a significant pullback in gold prices. This has provided an opportunity for central banks that may have been waiting for the best entry point to step in and purchase large amounts of gold."

## Individual Stock News

**Seagate (STX.US) strong performance drives the storage sector to soar, stating that capacity will be nearly sold out by 2027.** For the third fiscal quarter of 2026 ending April 3, Seagate reported total revenue of approximately $3.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44%, exceeding Wall Street analysts' average expectation of $2.96 billion Under the NON-GAAP standards, the adjusted earnings per share were $4.10, a significant increase from $1.90 in the same period last year, and far exceeded the market expectation of $3.51. The GAAP earnings per share were $3.27, compared to $1.57 in the same period last year. The NON-GAAP gross margin reached 47%, an increase of 480 basis points from the previous quarter; the NON-GAAP operating margin expanded to 37.5%, an increase of 560 basis points from the previous quarter. In terms of performance outlook, Seagate expects cumulative revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter to be approximately $3.45 billion, with a fluctuation of $100 million; according to data compiled by LSEG, this forecast is significantly higher than the average analyst estimate of $3.16 billion. As of the time of writing, Seagate's stock rose over 18% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. Other storage chip stocks—Micron (MU.US), Western Digital (WDC.US), SanDisk (SNDK.US)—also rose in pre-market trading.

**NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US) Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, strong guidance signals the start of a chip recovery.** Driven by the recovery of the automotive and industrial chip markets, Dutch chip manufacturer NXP Semiconductors reported better-than-expected first-quarter results and issued strong guidance for the second quarter. The earnings report showed that NXP's first-quarter revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $3.18 billion, exceeding the average analyst expectation of $3.15 billion. Net profit surged from $490 million in the same period last year to $1.12 billion. The adjusted earnings per share were $3.05, also surpassing the market expectation of $2.98. NXP expects second-quarter revenue to be between $3.35 billion and $3.55 billion, well above the analyst estimate of $3.27 billion; the adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $3.29 and $3.72, significantly better than the market expectation of $3.21; the adjusted gross margin is expected to be between 57.5% and 58.5%, with analysts expecting 57.6%. NXP's optimistic outlook confirms that the industrial and automotive chip markets are emerging from a two-year period of demand slump. As of the time of writing, NXP's stock surged nearly 20% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

**Robinhood (HOOD.US) Q1 revenue and profit both fell short of expectations, cryptocurrency revenue halved year-over-year.** The earnings report showed that Robinhood's Q1 revenue grew 15% to $1.07 billion, which was $70 million lower than expected; earnings per share were $0.38, compared to an expectation of $0.39. Average revenue per user (ARPU) fell from $191 in the fourth quarter to $157. Year-over-year growth was 8%, while the growth rate in the fourth quarter was 16%. Transaction-based revenue was $623 million, below the estimated $659 million, down from $776 million in the previous quarter, but up from $583 million a year ago. Among this, cryptocurrency revenue fell 47% year-over-year to $134 million. As of the time of writing, Robinhood's stock fell over 11% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

**The "Return to Starbucks" strategy is effective! Starbucks (SBUX.US) Q2 results exceeded expectations across the board: net profit surged 33%, and full-year performance guidance was raised.** The earnings report showed that the company achieved strong growth momentum in Q1, with total global net revenue reaching $9.53 billion, an 8.8% increase from $8.76 billion in the same period last year, setting a new historical record Exceeding market expectations by a significant margin, Starbucks reported a net profit of $510.9 million, a substantial increase of 33% compared to $384.2 million in the same period last year. CEO Brian Niccol described this quarter as a "turning point" for the company's transformation, marking positive responses to the "Return to Starbucks" strategy aimed at strengthening the brand's core competitiveness. As of the time of writing, Starbucks shares rose over 4% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

**High-income groups continue to swipe their cards! Visa (V.US) sees the strongest revenue growth in four years, with stablecoin settlements catalyzing new growth narratives.** Driven by strong global consumer spending resilience and robust growth in corporate payment volumes, Visa's total revenue for the second fiscal quarter recorded the largest year-on-year increase since 2022. For the three months ending March 31, the company's total revenue grew 17% year-on-year to $11.2 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $3.31, better than the market expectation of $3.10. Additionally, the company unexpectedly raised its full-year adjusted earnings per share growth forecast for fiscal year 2026 amid geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East disrupting global consumer spending plans, combined with the rapid expansion of stablecoin settlement volumes and a newly authorized $20 billion stock buyback, which collectively fueled bullish sentiment among investors regarding Visa. As of the time of writing, Visa shares rose nearly 6% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

**T-Mobile (TMUS.US) is no longer competing for "user numbers": New CEO's first quarterly report targets account value, raising multiple full-year guidance.** T-Mobile US delivered better-than-expected results in the first quarter, thanks to competitive pricing strategies and bundled streaming services, and subsequently raised its guidance for new customer accounts for the full year. The financial report showed that T-Mobile's total revenue for the first fiscal quarter ending March 31 was $23.11 billion, slightly above analysts' expectations of about $22.97 billion; diluted earnings per share were $2.27, a 12% year-on-year decline mainly due to merger costs related to the integration of USCellular, but still above the market expectation of $2.06; adjusted EBITDA was $9.2 billion, also exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, the company raised multiple full-year performance guidance, increasing the guidance for net postpaid account additions for 2026 from the previous range of 900,000 to 1 million, to 950,000 to 1.05 million; and raised the forecast range for full-year net cash flow from operating activities, adjusted free cash flow, and core adjusted EBITDA (after excluding rental income). As of the time of writing, T-Mobile shares rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

**Stable trading income + growth in asset management and retail banking, Deutsche Bank (DB.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations.** Deutsche Bank reported first-quarter revenue and profit both above expectations, driven by stable trading income and increased revenue from asset management and retail banking. The financial report showed that Deutsche Bank's Q1 revenue grew 2% year-on-year to €8.671 billion, better than the market expectation of €8.6 billion; net profit increased 8% year-on-year to €2.174 billion, exceeding the market expectation of €2 billion. Credit loss provisions amounted to €519 million, a year-on-year increase of 10% The net revenue of the Corporate Banking (CB) division was €1.816 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. The net revenue of the Investment Banking (IB) division was €3.373 billion, unchanged year-on-year; among them, the revenue from Fixed Income and Currencies (FIC) business was €2.9 billion, in line with market expectations. The net revenue of the Private Banking (PB) division was €2.567 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The net revenue of the Asset Management (AM) division was €802 million, a year-on-year increase of 10%. As of the time of writing, Deutsche Bank's stock fell nearly 3% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

**UBS (UBS.US) Q1 net profit soared 80% exceeding expectations, plans to further repurchase shares by the end of the year.** Data shows that the bank's Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was $3 billion, an 80% year-on-year increase, exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.8 billion; the pre-tax core profit was $3.9 billion, a 54% year-on-year increase, surpassing analysts' expectations of $3.2 billion. UBS stated that it still plans to repurchase $3 billion in shares before the release of the second-quarter financial report, having repurchased $900 million in shares over the past three months. The bank also revealed plans for further share repurchases by the end of the year. UBS noted in its financial report that the market remains "resilient" due to hopes for a resolution to the ongoing Middle East conflict. However, given the rapidly changing current situation, the risk level remains "high," and the bank warned that its net interest income from global wealth management, personal banking, and corporate banking is expected to "remain basically flat" in the second quarter. As of the time of writing, UBS's stock rose over 5% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

**The new leader's first report card is impressive: HIV and cancer drugs shine, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US) Q1 revenue and profit both exceed expectations.** Thanks to strong sales performance of specialty drugs in the fields of HIV, cancer, and immune diseases, British pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, providing strong support for the newly appointed CEO Luke Miels, who officially took the helm at the beginning of the year. The financial report shows that as of March 31, GlaxoSmithKline achieved revenue of £7.63 billion (approximately $10.3 billion), slightly above the market expectation of £7.58 billion; core earnings per share reached 46.5 pence (approximately 63 cents), better than the analyst consensus expectation of 43.3 pence. Looking ahead, the company reiterated its full-year performance guidance for 2026, expecting sales growth of 3% to 5% and core operating profit growth of 7% to 9%. The company also revealed that with plans to initiate 10 new late-stage clinical trials, the growth rate of new drug R&D spending this year will exceed the growth rate of sales. As of the time of writing, GlaxoSmithKline's stock fell over 4% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

**Strong demand for star cancer drugs, AstraZeneca (AZN.US) Q1 revenue and profit both exceed expectations.** Driven by strong demand for star cancer drugs, AstraZeneca's first-quarter profit growth exceeded expectations. The financial report shows that AstraZeneca (AZN.US) had total revenue of $15.288 billion in the first quarter, an 8% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $2.58, higher than analysts' expectations of $2.55. Its breast cancer drug Enhertu significantly boosted the performance of the oncology product portfolio, bringing in $831 million in revenue in the first quarter, well above analysts' expectations of $324 million The company reaffirmed its full-year performance guidance for 2026, expecting total annual revenue to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit percentage, and core earnings per share to grow at a low double-digit percentage.

**Lloyds Banking Group (LYG.US) shows resilience amid economic uncertainty in the UK! Q1 pre-tax profit increased by 33% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, and reaffirmed full-year guidance.** The UK's largest mortgage lender, Lloyds Banking Group, reported better-than-expected profits for the first quarter of 2026. The financial report showed that Lloyds' Q1 net profit was £4.785 billion, an increase of 9% year-on-year; of which, net interest income was £3.569 billion, up 8% year-on-year. Pre-tax profit was £2.025 billion, up 33% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of £1.78 billion. Lloyds set aside £295 million in Q1 for loan loss provisions. The one-time charge of nearly £2 billion related to mis-sold car loans previously announced by the bank remains unchanged. Additionally, the bank reaffirmed its 2026 performance guidance, expecting full-year net interest income to exceed £14.9 billion, with a cost/income ratio below 50%.

**TotalEnergies (TTE.US) Q1 profit exceeds expectations! Increased buybacks and dividends, trading business shines.** French energy giant TotalEnergies released its first-quarter financial report, benefiting from soaring oil and gas prices and strong trading performance, with profits significantly increasing year-on-year, and announced an increase in stock buyback and quarterly dividends. The report showed that TotalEnergies' adjusted net profit for the first quarter was $5.39 billion, up 29% year-on-year, significantly higher than the average analyst expectation of $4.98 billion. The company also raised its quarterly dividend from €0.85 per share to €0.90 (equivalent to $1.05). In terms of shareholder returns, the company plans to buy back up to $1.5 billion in shares in the second quarter, which is at the upper limit of the previous guidance range and doubles the $750 million buyback target from the first quarter.

**Demand for flu medications remains weak, Haleon (HLN.US) Q1 organic sales fell short of expectations.** Affected by weak demand for over-the-counter cold and flu medications at the beginning of the year, Haleon's first-quarter performance fell short of expectations. The company, which produces Panadol and Advil pain relievers, stated on Wednesday that its first-quarter organic sales grew by 2.2%, below the analyst expectation of 2.4%. Revenue was £2.857 billion, up 0.1% year-on-year. Haleon had previously warned that the weak situation for cold and flu season at the end of 2025 would continue into the new fiscal year, echoing the performance of competitor Reckitt a week earlier. The company reaffirmed its expectations for organic revenue growth of 3-5% and adjusted operating profit growth in the high single digits for 2026. As of the time of writing, Haleon shares fell over 3% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

**Despite headwinds, demand remains resilient! United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC.US) Q1 revenue exceeded expectations, and wafer prices will be raised in the second half of the year.** Taiwanese chip manufacturer United Microelectronics Corporation stated on Wednesday that despite facing headwinds such as a shortage of memory chip supply and the impact of the Iran war, market demand remains resilient, and the company will raise prices in the second half of this year. UMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$61.04 billion (approximately $1.93 billion), exceeding expectations by $10 million, and up 5.5% year-on-year; Net profit reached NT$16.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 108%. UMC stated in its earnings report that entering the second quarter, demand in the communications sector is recovering, coupled with steady demand in the computer, consumer electronics, and industrial markets, and it is expected that wafer shipments will remain strong. As of the time of publication, UMC's stock rose over 8% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

02:00 Beijing time the next day: The Federal Reserve FOMC announces the interest rate decision

02:30 Beijing time the next day: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

## Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: Google (GOOGL.US), Meta (META.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), Ford (F.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US)

Thursday pre-market: Eli Lilly (LLY.US), Merck (MRK.US)

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