--- title: "Morgan Stanley Boosts ADNOC Gas Rating on Potential Strait of Hormuz Reopening" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284588389.md" description: "Morgan Stanley upgraded ADNOC Gas to overweight from equal-weight, raising the price target to AED 4.20 due to potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The bank noted ADNOC Gas's vulnerability to disruptions in this shipping lane, with significant impacts on export volumes and profits. FY26 revenue and EBITDA forecasts were trimmed by 8%, while FY27 and FY28 EBITDA projections were increased by 9% and 5.1%, respectively, based on higher Brent crude price expectations. The updated price targets range from AED 2.60 to AED 5.90, reflecting the Strait's critical influence on ADNOC Gas's outlook." datetime: "2026-04-29T13:50:46.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284588389.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284588389.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284588389.md) --- # Morgan Stanley Boosts ADNOC Gas Rating on Potential Strait of Hormuz Reopening Morgan Stanley shifted gears on **ADNOC Gas**, moving its rating up to overweight from equal-weight, with a new price target of AED 4.20, up from AED 3.90. This change pivots on the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for energy exports, might reopen. The bank's analysts highlighted how ADNOC Gas is uniquely exposed to disruptions in this critical shipping lane. Roughly one-third of its export volumes and about two-thirds of its profits depend on LPG and LNG exports that typically transit the Strait. Looking at the numbers, Morgan Stanley trimmed its FY26 revenue and EBITDA forecasts by about 8% each, citing ongoing limitations from the Strait's closure reducing production and sales. The share of export traded liquid sales compared to production is expected to dip substantially, falling from a full 100% to 70% and 50% in Q1 and Q2 of 2026, respectively. On domestic gas, the forecast for Q1 and Q2 2026 production took a hit too, falling to 530 TBTU and 600 TBTU from previously projected 635 TBTU. This signals a clear volume crunch in the short term. But don't count ADNOC Gas out just yet. Morgan Stanley boosted EBITDA projections for FY27 and FY28 by 9% and 5.1%, thanks to a more bullish take on Brent crude prices-expecting $80 a barrel in 2027 and $75 in 2028, up significantly from earlier $60 predictions. Interestingly, the current ADNOC Gas share price reflects a scenario where LPG/LNG plants are operating at just 75% capacity or oil prices are stuck near $45 a barrel, leaving room for upside if things normalize faster. Net income projections mirror this split picture, with an 11.4% cut anticipated for 2026 but a near 10% jump forecast for 2027. Morgan Stanley's base assumes a return to typical production and sales by Q3 2026, pegging Q1 2026 EBITDA at $1.69 billion and net income around $1.04 billion. The updated price targets show a wider range: bullish at AED 5.90, base at AED 4.20, and bearish setting AED 2.60, raising the floor from prior estimates. It's clear the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has a huge bearing on ADNOC Gas's outlook. ### Related Stocks - [HGAS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HGAS.US.md) - [MS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS.US.md) - [MS-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-O.US.md) - [MS-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-Q.US.md) - [MS-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-E.US.md) - [MS-I.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-I.US.md) - [MS-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-L.US.md) - [MS-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-P.US.md) - [MS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-A.US.md) - [MS-F.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-F.US.md) - [MS-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-K.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [ZAWYA-PRESSR: ADNOC Gas delivers record $5.2bln net income in 2025](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275263140.md) - [Adnoc Gas Says Operations Are Continuing Safely Across Adnoc Gas's Asset Base](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280099009.md) - [ADNOC indicates that complete oil flow recovery is not expected until early 2027 at the earliest.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287166214.md) - [UAE SAYS IRAN ATTEMPT TO CONTROL HORMUZ "PIPE DREAM](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287189583.md) - [Oil flows could take 4 months to return to 80% of pre-war levels: ADNOC CEO](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287161984.md)