--- title: "Is It Too Late To Consider ArcelorMittal (ENXTAM:MT) After A 92.7% Rally?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284859521.md" description: "ArcelorMittal's share price has surged 92.7% over the past year, raising questions about its current value. Despite a recent decline, analysts suggest the stock is undervalued, with a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis indicating a 22.3% discount to its intrinsic value of €63.41 per share. Additionally, its P/E ratio of 14x is below industry averages, further supporting the undervaluation claim. Various narratives on Simply Wall St provide insights into potential future valuations, ranging from €27.31 to €65.94, helping investors assess their positions." datetime: "2026-05-01T02:13:47.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284859521.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284859521.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284859521.md) --- # Is It Too Late To Consider ArcelorMittal (ENXTAM:MT) After A 92.7% Rally? - If you are wondering whether ArcelorMittal's share price still offers value after a strong run, the key is to look closely at what today’s price implies about the business. - Over the past year the stock has recorded a 92.7% return, with 23.5% year to date, 12.3% over the last 30 days and a 4.9% decline in the past week from a recent close of €49.24. This can change how the market views both its potential and its risks. - Recent coverage has focused on ArcelorMittal as a major global steel producer and its role in large scale industrial and infrastructure demand, which helps frame why the share price has been so active. Broader commentary has also looked at how metal producers are positioned within materials markets, giving useful context for assessing whether current pricing looks stretched or conservative. - On Simply Wall St's 6 point valuation checklist, ArcelorMittal scores 5 out of 6. The rest of this article will unpack what that means using cash flow, multiples and other common methods before finishing with a more complete way to think about value. ArcelorMittal delivered 92.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Metals and Mining industry. ### Approach 1: ArcelorMittal Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A DCF model estimates what a business could be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value using a required return. It is essentially asking what those future dollars are worth in present terms. For ArcelorMittal, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about US$542.0 million. Analyst inputs and extrapolated estimates point to projected free cash flow of around US$3.5b in 2030, with a series of annual projections between these points that are discounted back using the required rate of return. On this basis, the DCF model produces an estimated intrinsic value of €63.41 per share, compared with the recent share price of €49.24. That gap implies the shares trade at a 22.3% discount to the model’s estimate, which indicates the stock currently screens as undervalued on this method. **Result: UNDERVALUED** Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ArcelorMittal is undervalued by 22.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 243 more high quality undervalued stocks. MT Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for ArcelorMittal. ### Approach 2: ArcelorMittal Price vs Earnings P/E is a common way to value profitable companies because it links what you pay directly to the earnings the business is already generating. In simple terms, a higher P/E usually reflects higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk. A lower P/E can reflect more modest growth expectations or higher perceived risk. ArcelorMittal currently trades on a P/E of about 14x. That sits below both the Metals and Mining industry average of roughly 20x and a peer group average of around 26x. On the surface, that suggests the market is pricing ArcelorMittal’s earnings more cautiously than many of its peers. Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” for ArcelorMittal is 24x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/E could be, given factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics. Compared with a simple peer or industry comparison, the Fair Ratio aims to be more tailored to the company by considering these additional drivers rather than just lining it up against broad averages. With a current P/E of 14x versus a Fair Ratio of 24x, the shares screen as undervalued on this method. **Result: UNDERVALUED** ENXTAM:MT P/E Ratio as at May 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 1 top founder-led companies. ## Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your ArcelorMittal Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story about ArcelorMittal to the numbers, linking your view of its revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and a Fair Value that you can easily compare with the current price. On the Community page you can see how different Narratives range from a more cautious view with a Fair Value around €27.31 to a more optimistic view near €65.94. These Narratives update automatically as new news or earnings arrive so you can quickly judge whether the stock looks closer to your buy, hold or sell zone. For ArcelorMittal however we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading ArcelorMittal Narratives: **🐂 ArcelorMittal Bull Case** Fair value: €55.03 Implied pricing gap vs last close: 10.5% discount to this narrative fair value Analyst revenue growth assumption: 4.76% per year - Analysts frame a “balanced future outlook” where investments in lower carbon furnaces, green steel and capacity in higher growth regions support earnings, while cash returns include a higher dividend and ongoing buybacks. - Revenue, margins and earnings forecasts build in gradual improvement, with earnings projected at $4.9b by about April 2029 on higher profit margins and a P/E of 12.0x, alongside a modest decline in share count. - Key watchpoints include trade tariffs, heavy decarbonisation capex, global overcapacity, execution risk on big projects and demand softness in regions such as Europe and potentially India. **🐻 ArcelorMittal Bear Case** Fair value: €27.31 Implied pricing gap vs last close: 80.2% premium to this narrative fair value Bear case revenue growth assumption: 3.22% per year - The cautious view focuses on the possibility that higher ongoing costs from protectionist trade rules, emissions compliance and asset upgrades weigh on spreads, EBITDA and net margins. - Assumptions include slower revenue growth, more muted margin gains and a much lower future P/E of 7.3x, which together anchor a fair value of €27.31 for investors who adopt this stance. - This narrative could be challenged if structural margin improvement, large growth projects, policy support for steel producers and capital returns like buybacks and dividends prove more supportive than these assumptions allow for. If you want to see how other investors are joining the dots between these kinds of assumptions, risks and fair values for ArcelorMittal, it is worth spending a few minutes with the full range of Community Narratives, then comparing them with your own expectations for the business and your tolerance for risk. To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for ArcelorMittal on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. Do you think there's more to the story for ArcelorMittal? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! ENXTAM:MT Earnings & Revenue History as at May 2026 _This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. **We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.** It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._ ### **New:** Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place We've created the **ultimate portfolio companion** for stock investors, **and it's free.** • Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency • Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile • Track the Fair Value of your stocks Try a Demo Portfolio for Free ### Related Stocks - [MT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MT.US.md) - [AMSYF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMSYF.US.md) - [PICK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PICK.US.md) - [XME.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XME.US.md) - [SLX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SLX.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Here's How Much $1000 Invested In ArcelorMittal 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287086894.md) - [ArcelorMittal unlocks value through partial sell-down of its shareholding in Vallourec with proceeds allocated to share buybacks | MT Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286860938.md) - [ArcelorMittal sells 10% Vallourec stake for $667M buyback plan](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287031456.md) - [Steel Giant ArcelorMittal Dumps 10% Vallourec Stake](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286917385.md) - [Canada Court Issues $73 Million Fine Against ArcelorMittal on Environmental Violations](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286605273.md)