---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The three major stock index futures are mixed, and the U.S.-Iran game may see new variables. Apple is up over 3% in pre-market trading"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/284896674.md"
description: "U.S. stock index futures were mixed, with Dow futures up 0.37%, S&P 500 futures up 0.27%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.03%. Many European countries were closed for Labor Day, with the UK FTSE 100 index down 0.6%. WTI crude oil futures fell 0.84%, while Brent crude oil futures rose 0.51%. The U.S. announced the end of hostile actions against Iran, shifting its strategic focus to economic sanctions and diplomatic confrontation, which may affect U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. Israeli media reported that the U.S. may decide to resume military operations against Iran"
datetime: "2026-05-01T12:26:03.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/284896674.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284896674.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284896674.md)
---

# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The three major stock index futures are mixed, and the U.S.-Iran game may see new variables. Apple is up over 3% in pre-market trading

## Pre-Market Market Trends

1.  On May 1st (Friday), U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results before the market opened. As of the time of publication, Dow futures were up 0.37%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.27%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.03%.

![54c1c0cde00ce828d6be61277416703.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260501/1777637380532882.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  On May 1st, stock markets in several European countries were closed for Labor Day, with only the London stock market open for trading. As of the time of publication, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.6%.

![09796d9af3a179e21efc44317d68b28.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260501/1777637397395177.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of publication, WTI crude oil futures prices were down 0.84%, at $104.19 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures prices were up 0.51%, at $110.96 per barrel.

![90564b36426e602c2a222090293b2eb.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260501/1777637404576507.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**The U.S. announces the end of "hostile actions" against Iran, shifting strategic focus to deep economic sanctions and diplomatic confrontation.** Senior U.S. government officials announced on April 30th local time that the "hostile actions" resulting from the joint military operation against Iran, codenamed "Epic Fury," which began on February 28th of this year, have ended. The core consideration behind this move by the U.S. is to avoid legal red lines. Since the Trump administration formally reported to Congress on March 2nd about military action, U.S. law requires that military operations must be concluded within 60 days, by May 1st, unless Congress grants further authorization. According to the War Powers Resolution of 1973, if Congress does not authorize war, the President must withdraw armed forces from hostile actions after 60 days. The 60-day period starts from the date the President sends formal notification to Congress. President Trump notified Congress about the hostile actions against Iran on March 2nd, which means the 60-day deadline would end on May 1st (Friday). The President can extend the withdrawal period by 30 days to complete the troop withdrawal.

**U.S.-Iran peace negotiations face new changes? Israeli media: The U.S. is "about to decide" whether to resume military actions against Iran.** According to reports from Israeli media on May 1st, the U.S. is "possibly about to decide" whether to resume military-level strikes against Iran, while the Israel Defense Forces are intensifying preparations to respond to a potential "renewed war" with Iran. Reports from Israel's Channel 12 indicate that Israeli officials are "on high alert," preparing for the possibility that U.S.-Iran negotiations may break down as early as next week. The reports cite senior officials in the Israeli government stating that the U.S. may increase pressure on Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz and may launch military strikes against Iran's energy facilities and government infrastructure **The Middle East conflict rewrites global shipping, with Cape of Good Hope tanker shipping volume hitting a record high.** As the conflict in the Middle East continues, the volume of tankers passing through the Cape of Good Hope reached a historic high in mid-April, indicating a structural long-term shift in the Asia-Europe shipping routes. Vessels are increasingly avoiding the Gulf and Suez Canal routes, opting for long-distance routes around the southern tip of Africa, leading to a profound reshaping of the global maritime logistics landscape. Since the Houthi armed forces in Yemen attacked vessels in the Red Sea due to the situation in Gaza in 2023, ships on the Asia-Europe route have begun to detour around the Cape of Good Hope. After a preliminary ceasefire in Gaza last October, some shipping companies tentatively returned to the direct route through the Suez Canal. However, following the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions in the Gulf, market concerns about the Houthis resuming attacks on vessels led shipowners to completely abandon plans to return to the Red Sea route, resulting in a significant increase in traffic through the Cape of Good Hope.

**The revenue of large-scale cloud computing companies is accelerating, becoming the most important validation signal for generative AI investment returns (ROIC) this year.** Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, the three cloud computing giants, all reported impressive earnings on the same night, highlighting the unexpectedly rapid growth of cloud computing businesses benefiting from the AI wave, prompting Wall Street to reprice the commercial returns of AI. A recent research report from Morgan Stanley's analyst team indicates that the five major tech giants (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) are expected to have a combined capital expenditure of about $800 billion by 2026, and are likely to exceed $1.1 trillion by 2027, up from the previous forecast of $950 billion. Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the core logic behind this massive capital investment is: first, heavy reinvestment to build capacity, and then rely on scalable commercial revenue and ROIC recovery based on AI computing resources; the explosive growth of backlogged orders in cloud computing is the most direct evidence that this logic can work, and the unexpectedly rapid growth of these giants' cloud computing businesses has led Wall Street to reprice the commercial returns of AI.

**OpenAI CFO responds to concerns about not meeting targets: Demand remains strong.** OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar addressed external concerns about the company not meeting internal targets, stating that the company is achieving its established goals and that product demand is showing a "vertical wall of demand." In an interview on Thursday, Friar said, "Overall, we feel like we are exceeding our plans, but the specific paths to achieving that can vary at different stages, as this is still a young business and it's hard to be completely predictable on every metric."

**The AI wave drives a 48% increase in South Korea's exports, with semiconductors centered on memory chips remaining the core engine of trade growth.** South Korea's exports continued their strong momentum in April, despite increasing risks of rising energy prices due to the turbulent situation in Iran, as strong semiconductor demand continues to support export growth. The Ministry of Trade stated on Friday that after adjusting for working day differences, export values increased by 48% compared to the same period last year; unadjusted export values also grew by 48%, compared to a revised increase of 49.2% for the entire month of March. During the same period, imports increased by 16.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of $23.8 billion. The semiconductor industry remains the absolute core engine driving South Korea's trade growth. Industry giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix benefit from the premium and order explosion of high-end products such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), driving the semiconductor export price index to its fastest growth rate in decades Due to the orders from mainstream AI accelerator manufacturers being scheduled until 2025 or even further, this rigid demand driven by technological transformation has successfully offset the pressure brought by the slowdown in exports from traditional manufacturing sectors such as automobiles and steel.

**The scale of Japan's government intervention in the foreign exchange market has surfaced! Suspected to have spent $34.5 billion to support the yen, the foreign exchange market enters a "high volatility Golden Week."** The yen continued to strengthen on Friday. According to a summary report from Wall Street foreign exchange strategists analyzing the Bank of Japan's accounts, the Japanese Ministry of Finance may have spent about $34.5 billion on Thursday, marking its latest intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the yen's exchange rate since July 2024. On Friday, Japanese media reported that the Japanese government is on standby 24 hours a day to respond to significant fluctuations in the exchange rate and is prepared to intervene in the market again, which also means that the foreign exchange market may experience unusually severe fluctuations during the Golden Week holiday. In Japan, the Golden Week holiday will last until next Wednesday. Due to the recent high market volatility, Katsuyuki Katayama and her colleague, Japan's top foreign exchange affairs official Atsushi Mimura, remain highly vigilant. Katsuyuki Katayama warned that foreign exchange market traders should do the same; she stated on Thursday that even during the five-day Golden Week holiday, traders should not put down their phones.

## Individual Stock News

**Apple (AAPL.US) Q2 revenue and profit both exceed expectations: iPhone 17 performs strongly, and the positive guidance boosts stock price in pre-market trading.** Apple Inc. released its financial performance report for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 after the market closed on Thursday, April 30 (Eastern Time). The report shows that Apple achieved total revenue of $111.18 billion in the quarter, a significant year-on-year increase of 17%, far exceeding Wall Street analysts' previous forecast of $109.66 billion. This growth momentum mainly comes from the explosive demand for the iPhone 17 series in the global market and the strong recovery of the Mac business. In terms of profit performance, Apple also set a historical record for the March quarter, with a net profit of $29.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%; diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $2.01, up 22% from the same period last year, significantly higher than the market's general expectation of $1.95. At the same time, the company's gross margin rose to 49.3%, demonstrating strong profitability. By product line, the iPhone business remains Apple's core growth engine, with quarterly revenue reaching $56.99 billion, an increase of about 24% from $45.96 billion in the same period last year. Management pointed out that the iPhone 17 series has become the most popular model for the company during this period in history. As of the time of publication, Apple's stock price rose over 3% in pre-market trading.

**Western Digital (WDC.US) and SanDisk (SNDK.US) reported better-than-expected earnings, but their stock prices plummeted in pre-market trading, as high expectations, high valuations, and overheated positions triggered profit-taking.** Against the backdrop of the ongoing AI wave driving growth in data storage demand, the latest financial reports and future performance outlooks of the two major storage giants in the U.S. — Western Digital and SanDisk — were very strong. However, their stock prices fell in pre-market trading, reflecting the market's cautious stance regarding the extremely high growth expectations, high valuations, and overheated positions behind the industry's high prosperity. From an industry perspective, as AI infrastructure construction accelerates, the data storage and storage chip industry remains in a phase of comprehensive demand explosion Including tech giants such as Amazon (AMZN.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), Alphabet (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US), and Meta Platforms (META.US), it is expected that over $700 billion will be invested in AI data centers this year, which may further drive exponential growth in storage demand.

**Against the backdrop of high oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, American oil and gas giant Chevron (CVX.US) reported strong performance.** The company's adjusted earnings per share were $1.41, far exceeding the market consensus expectation of $0.95 as compiled by LSEG. Despite significantly surpassing expectations, overall profits still hit a five-year low, partly due to adverse timing effects related to financial derivatives. Chevron's largest business segment—the upstream segment—generated $3.9 billion in profit, a 4% year-on-year increase, driven by a substantial rise in revenue due to higher oil prices. "Despite escalating geopolitical turmoil leading to related supply disruptions, Chevron's first-quarter performance was robust, highlighting the resilience of our portfolio and the value of disciplined execution," said CEO Mike Wirth in a statement. The conflict that erupted on February 28 in Iran severely disrupted global energy markets. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz nearly came to a complete halt, leading to tight supplies and pushing oil prices up, resulting in a 50% increase in international oil prices in the second quarter.

**Another American oil and gas giant, ExxonMobil (XOM.US), also reported strong performance.** The company's total revenue for the first quarter was approximately $85.138 billion, up from $83.130 billion in the same period last year; GAAP net profit was $4.183 billion, down from $7.713 billion year-on-year; diluted EPS was $1.00, lower than $1.76 in the same period last year. However, excluding identified items, adjusted profit was $4.889 billion, and adjusted EPS was $1.16, exceeding the market expectation of $1.00 as per LSEG statistics; upstream remains the absolute core pillar. Q1 upstream profit was $5.737 billion, higher than $3.517 billion in the previous quarter but lower than $6.756 billion in the same period last year; upstream profit, excluding timing effects, was $6.265 billion. Exxon remains a high-quality defensive leader in a high oil price environment, global energy security reassessment, and upstream asset scarcity; however, compared to Chevron, it has a higher exposure to the Middle East.

**Estée Lauder (EL.US) saw moderate revenue recovery, significant margin restoration, and the beginning of its transformation plan realization, with a pre-market increase of over 8%.** The company's net sales for the third fiscal quarter were $3.712 billion, a 5% year-on-year increase; organic net sales grew by 2%; gross margin rose from 75.0% in the same period last year to 76.4%; however, GAAP operating profit was $249 million, a 19% year-on-year decline, mainly impacted by restructuring costs and provisions related to securities class action lawsuits. Adjusted operating profit, which better reflects operational quality, was $557 million, a 38% year-on-year increase; adjusted operating margin improved from 11.4% to 15.0%; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.91, a 40% year-on-year increase, significantly higher than market expectations. Fragrance was the strongest growth engine, while skincare and makeup are still in a recovery rather than a full prosperity phase The net sales of perfumes amounted to USD 628 million, with a reported growth of 13% and an organic growth of 10%. The management has raised the full-year guidance, which is the most important stock price catalyst from this financial report. The company currently expects organic net sales growth of approximately 3% for the fiscal year 2026, at the high end of the previous range of 1%—3%; the adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be 10.7%—11.0%; the adjusted EPS guidance has been raised from the previous USD 2.05—2.25 to USD 2.35—2.45.

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:45: U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. April ISM Employment Index

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