--- title: "Will Google's New TPU Orders Flow to Intel? Ming-Chi Kuo: Google Aims to Cut Out Even MediaTek's Margins; TSMC Holds Significant Yield Advantage" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/285030295.md" description: "Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that Intel's EMIB-T advanced packaging currently has a verification yield of approximately 90%, but there is still a significant gap from the 98% required for mass production, making it a key risk factor. Meanwhile, in an effort to compress AI chip costs and compete with NVIDIA, Google is attempting to bypass MediaTek and purchase wafers directly from Taiwan Semiconductor, driving a restructuring of the supply chain. Taiwan Semiconductor is cautiously balancing the interests of multiple parties regarding capacity allocation and cooperation paths. Overall, packaging yields and cost control are jointly determining the success or failure of Google's AI chip strategy" datetime: "2026-05-04T05:21:37.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285030295.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285030295.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285030295.md) --- # Will Google's New TPU Orders Flow to Intel? Ming-Chi Kuo: Google Aims to Cut Out Even MediaTek's Margins; TSMC Holds Significant Yield Advantage The packaging technology roadmap for Google's next-generation TPU chips is facing a critical test. The EMIB-T packaging technology provided by Intel for Google's new TPU (codenamed Humufish) scheduled for the second half of 2027 has currently achieved a technical verification yield of 90%. However, this still falls short of the standards required for mass production. Google's tough procurement stance, aimed at compressing costs and directly challenging NVIDIA, is reshaping the profit landscape of the entire supply chain. Prominent Apple and technology supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently disclosed that the current 90% technical verification yield for EMIB-T is a positive yet reasonable data point. However, Intel's benchmark for mass production yield references the FCBGA process, where the industry-wide standard is already above 98%. The difficulty of increasing yield from 90% to 98% far exceeds that of going from zero to 90%. Additionally, since some specifications for Humufish have not yet been finalized, there remains uncertainty regarding whether mass production yields can meet targets in the near to medium term. Meanwhile, Google has quietly requested quotes from Taiwan Semiconductor, exploring whether it can bypass MediaTek and place wafer orders for the Humufish main compute chip directly, thereby cutting out markups from intermediate links. This move sends a clear signal: Google is transforming from a previously lenient buyer into a meticulous cost controller. The logic is that to directly challenge NVIDIA in the AI accelerator chip market, cost advantage is Google's core weapon. Consequently, the mass production yield of EMIB-T directly impacts Google's competitiveness. ## Yield Bottleneck: The Leap from 90% to 98% Is the Most Difficult Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that the current 90% technical verification yield for EMIB-T is a positive milestone for a technology still in the development stage. Intel has certain historical accumulation in EMIB mass production, which lends credibility to this figure. However, there is a fundamental difference between technical verification yield and final mass production yield. Intel's reference benchmark for packaging yield is FCBGA, and the current industry-wide FCBGA yield is generally higher than 98%. Kuo emphasized that crossing from 90% to 98% is much more difficult than climbing from the project initiation stage to 90%, especially given that some specifications for Humufish have not yet been finalized, introducing more variables to the final yield trajectory. For reference, Taiwan Semiconductor's yield target for its 5.5x reticle size CoWoS packaging in 2026 also starts at 98%, meaning Google has no room for compromise on its yield expectations for EMIB-T. Kuo stated that while he holds a positive long-term view on the development direction of Intel's advanced packaging, he remains cautious about its ability to smoothly meet mass production standards in the near to medium term. ## Google Turns Tough: Cost Pressure Forces Supply Chain Restructuring Google recently inquired with Taiwan Semiconductor about whether it could place wafer orders directly for the Humufish main compute chip (designed internally by Google), rather than continuing the previous model of routing orders through MediaTek. Kuo analyzed that Google and MediaTek have collaborated using a semi-COT (Customer Owned Tooling) model since the first generation of TPU (8t). MediaTek's profit margins are primarily concentrated in its self-designed portions. Therefore, whether Google places wafer orders for the main compute chip directly is not a key variable affecting MediaTek's overall profitability trajectory. However, Google's proactive inquiry into compressing the markup on wafer orders conveys an important message: Google's procurement strategy has undergone a fundamental shift. The logic driving this change is straightforward—to confront NVIDIA head-on in the AI chip market, cost is Google's most important bargaining chip. This elevates the mass production yield of EMIB-T from a supply chain technical issue to a strategic problem that Google must solve personally. ## Taiwan Semiconductor's Dilemma: Front-End Capacity Allocation Remains Undecided Taiwan Semiconductor is currently evaluating how much advanced process capacity to allocate for Humufish in the second half of 2027, driven by two considerations. First, Taiwan Semiconductor still hopes to secure the backend packaging orders for Humufish, although this seems unlikely at present—a result intentionally orchestrated by Google. Second, Taiwan Semiconductor needs to ascertain the actual backend output capability of EMIB-T to avoid misallocating scarce advanced process capacity to links that cannot fully absorb it. Kuo pointed out that the effective backend output of Humufish depends on both the EMIB-T packaging and the substrate stages. Both need to be tracked in tandem, as a bottleneck in either link will affect the overall shipment rhythm. Under the semi-COT model, Taiwan Semiconductor also prefers that MediaTek continue to handle wafer orders for the main compute chip. Beyond their long-standing close partnership, the more critical business logic is that MediaTek is Taiwan Semiconductor's third-largest customer for advanced processes in 2025. Should TPU orders shift, MediaTek's scale makes it a natural buffer for Taiwan Semiconductor to rebalance its wafer capacity allocation structure. This means that in this supply chain game, Taiwan Semiconductor has its own internal motivation to maintain the existing order. ### Related Stocks - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [TSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md) - [INTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/INTC.US.md) - [GGLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GGLL.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [Alphabet's (GOOGL) AI Chip Shake-Up Puts TSMC, Intel, and MediaTek in Focus](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285073371.md) - [Google’s Run Faces Tight Risk-Reward as Earnings Loom](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284535773.md) - [Is the Intel stock hype overdone? How to make sense of the latest big move.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284653226.md) - [No question the AI megatrend continues, Taiwan's MediaTek says](https://longbridge.com/en/news/284724830.md) - [MOVES-MediaTek hires former TSMC executive to boost AI chip packaging](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285020878.md)