--- title: "'Big Short' Idol Steve Eisman Warns Iran War Could End Tomorrow, But 'The Financial Event Is Not Ending'" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/285242535.md" description: "Steve Eisman warns that while the Iran war could end soon, the financial event is ongoing, particularly concerning software credit exposure at major firms. Strategas predicts a potential market melt-up driven by semiconductor stocks, which now constitute 17% of the S&P 500. Despite rising oil prices and recession concerns, market indicators suggest resilience. Eisman cautions that AI may lead to a credit crisis in software, as evidenced by recent stock drops despite revenue growth. Investors are advised to consider defensive positions in energy and materials while leaning into potential market gains." datetime: "2026-05-05T16:59:19.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285242535.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285242535.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285242535.md) --- # 'Big Short' Idol Steve Eisman Warns Iran War Could End Tomorrow, But 'The Financial Event Is Not Ending' Strategas chief market strategist **Chris Verrone** is telling investors to “raise your odds of some type of a melt-up” through the back half of 2026. Verrone made the call on the Real Eisman Playbook podcast, citing parallels to the 1999 tech rally and the velocity of the bounce off the late-March lows. Host **Steve Eisman** pushed back. “The war could end tomorrow. The financial event is not ending tomorrow,” the “Big Short” investor said, pointing to software credit exposure at **Apollo Global Management** (NYSE:APO), **Blackstone** (NYSE:BX), and **KKR** (NYSE:KKR). ## Semis Now 17% Of The S&P 500 Strategas chartist Todd Sohn said semiconductor stocks now make up roughly 17% of the **S&P 500** (NYSE:SPY), up from 2% a decade ago and close to half of the broader info tech weighting. “Is it aggressive perhaps? Is it warranted though? Yes,” Sohn said. “We’re in a semiconductor world now.” **Nvidia** (NASDAQ:NVDA) and **Broadcom** (NASDAQ:AVGO) anchor the concentration, while **Micron Technology** (NASDAQ:MU) is now larger by market cap than **Johnson & Johnson** (NYSE:JNJ). AI infrastructure plays are still leading the rally, including **GE Vernova** (NYSE:GEV), which Sohn said is now larger than **GE Aerospace** (NYSE:GE). The bull case has a catch: The S&P is now a leveraged bet on AI capex. Semis at 17% plus the hyperscalers means a meaningful chunk of the index is riding on data center buildout assumptions, and Sohn said there is nowhere obvious to rotate if the trade breaks. ## What Prediction Markets Are Pricing Even with reports that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has effectively collapsed and oil back above $100 a barrel, Kalshi traders have not pushed recession odds back to the war highs. The 2026 recession contract sits near 24 cents, well below the 37-cent peak from the end of March. Polymarket gives a 20% probability to an “AI bubble burst” by Dec. 31, 2026. Verrone said it is “hard to make recession your base case” when transports including **CSX** (NASDAQ:CSX) are making new highs. ## The Software Wrinkle Eisman’s worry is software, and it is not new. The “Big Short” investor has argued that AI will trigger the next credit crisis in software, with private credit lenders sitting on top of leveraged loans to companies whose moats are eroding. Last week reinforced the thesis. **ServiceNow** (NYSE:NOW) dropped 14% despite reporting 22% revenue growth. Eisman said the cycle has not yet shown up in bank data, but if it shows up anywhere first, it shows up at the alts. 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