--- title: "Is BASF (XTRA:BAS) Offering Value After Its 29.4% One Year Share Price Return" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/285419496.md" description: "BASF (XTRA:BAS) has seen a 29.4% return over the past year, closing at €52.42. Despite a recent 3.0% decline in the last week, the stock is considered undervalued by 49.3% based on a Discounted Cash Flow analysis, suggesting an intrinsic value of €103.33 per share. However, its P/E ratio of 30.31x is above industry averages, indicating it may be slightly overvalued. The article discusses various valuation approaches and highlights the mixed sentiment surrounding BASF within the chemicals sector." datetime: "2026-05-06T18:08:37.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285419496.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285419496.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285419496.md) --- # Is BASF (XTRA:BAS) Offering Value After Its 29.4% One Year Share Price Return - Wondering if BASF at a last close of €52.42 is offering you value or just a fair price today? This article breaks down what the current share price might be implying. - The stock has seen mixed short term moves, with a 3.0% decline over the last 7 days, a 2.9% return over 30 days, and a 17.1% return year to date, while the 1 year return sits at 29.4% and the 3 year and 5 year returns are 30.9% and 3.0% respectively. - Recent news coverage around BASF has focused on its position within the broader chemicals sector and how investors are weighing the stock against peers in terms of scale and diversification. Headlines have also highlighted how sentiment toward global industrials and materials stocks is feeding into trading activity in BASF shares. - Right now BASF scores 2 out of 6 on our valuation checks, and the rest of this article will walk through what different valuation approaches suggest about that score, before finishing with a simple way to bring all of those signals together into one clearer view of value. BASF scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. ### Approach 1: BASF Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash BASF could generate in the future and discounts those amounts back to today, giving a single estimate of what the stock might be worth now. BASF’s latest twelve month free cash flow stands at €842.6m. Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, analysts and Simply Wall St projections estimate free cash flow reaching €4.1b by 2030, with interim years such as 2026 and 2027 sitting in the €1.8b to €2.6b range before later extrapolated figures. All projections are in €, and estimates beyond the typical analyst window are extrapolated by Simply Wall St. When those future cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of about €103.33 per share for BASF. Compared with the recent share price of €52.42, this implies the stock is 49.3% undervalued according to this model. **Result: UNDERVALUED** Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests BASF is undervalued by 49.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 228 more high quality undervalued stocks. BAS Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for BASF. ### Approach 2: BASF Price vs Earnings For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are paying today for each €1 of current earnings. It helps you compare what the market is willing to pay for BASF’s earnings against other stocks and simple rules of thumb. What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on what investors expect from the company and how risky they think those earnings are. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while lower expected growth or higher risk usually point to a lower multiple. BASF currently trades on a P/E of 30.31x. That sits above the Chemicals industry average of 24.32x and also above the peer average of 26.51x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio for BASF is 28.14x, which is an estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks. The Fair Ratio can be more informative than a straight comparison with peers or the industry because it adjusts for those company specific drivers rather than assuming all stocks deserve similar multiples. With BASF’s current P/E of 30.31x versus a Fair Ratio of 28.14x, the stock screens as slightly expensive on this measure. **Result: OVERVALUED** XTRA:BAS P/E Ratio as at May 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 99 top founder-led companies. ## Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your BASF Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives are introduced here as a simple way for you to attach a clear story about BASF to the numbers you care about, such as fair value, and the paths you see for future revenue, earnings and margins. A Narrative links three things together, your view on BASF’s business story, a financial forecast that reflects that view, and a fair value estimate that falls out of those assumptions. On Simply Wall St this is set up for you inside the Community page, so you can pick or create a Narrative, see the numbers behind it, and compare that Fair Value to today’s price to help decide whether BASF looks more like an opportunity or something to be cautious about without needing a complex spreadsheet. Because Narratives on the platform update when fresh information such as news, guidance or earnings is added, you can see how a more cautious view that lines up with a €36.05 fair value and a more optimistic view that aligns with €63.00 react as conditions change. You can then decide which BASF story feels closer to your own expectations. For BASF, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading BASF Narratives: These provide a clear bullish and bearish framing so you can see which one lines up better with your own expectations on earnings, margins and risk. **🐂 BASF Bull Case** Fair value in this bullish narrative: €63.00 Implied discount to that fair value at the last close of €52.42: about 16.8% undervalued Assumed annual revenue growth: 5.03% - Analysts in this camp see BASF executing on €2.1b in annual cost savings, earlier project ramp ups and customer wins, which feed into higher margins and earnings than the broader consensus assumes. - They point to exposure to semiconductors, battery materials and advanced recycling as key growth areas tied to electrification and decarbonization, with BASF’s global production footprint and A credit rating helping support cash flow resilience. - To agree with this narrative, you would need to be comfortable with assumptions such as revenue of €69.1b and earnings of €3.4b by 2029, and a future P/E of about 19.0x applied to those earnings. **🐻 BASF Bear Case** Fair value in this bearish narrative: €36.05 Implied premium to that fair value at the last close of €52.42: about 45.5% overvalued Assumed annual revenue growth: 2.32% - Analysts in this camp focus on higher compliance and capital costs from decarbonization, pressure from overcapacity and energy prices, and weaker long term demand for some core chemicals and plastics. - They see execution and political risk around large scale investments such as the Zhanjiang Verbund site in China, with the possibility that utilization, pricing and returns fall short of plan and weigh on earnings. - To agree with this narrative, you would need to be comfortable with assumptions such as revenue of €63.9b and earnings of €2.1b by 2029, and a future P/E of about 17.6x, which gives a fair value close to €36.05. Both narratives use the same building blocks: cash flow, growth, margins, risk and required return. Your next step is to decide which story feels closer to how you think BASF’s business and the chemicals sector could play out, and then adjust the numbers to reflect your own view rather than relying solely on any single set of analyst assumptions. To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for BASF on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. Do you think there's more to the story for BASF? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! XTRA:BAS 1-Year Stock Price Chart _This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. **We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.** It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._ ### Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it. Discover if BASF might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring **fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.** Access Free Analysis ### Related Stocks - [BAS.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAS.DE.md) - [BASFY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BASFY.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [BASF Targets Core Businesses for Further Cost Cutting](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287098958.md) - [US launches investigation into imports of Vietnamese chemical](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287007343.md) - [BASF SE: Dr. Dirk Elvermann, buy](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285913760.md) - [Bernstein Keeps Their Buy Rating on BASF SE (0BFA)](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285038698.md)