--- title: "NVIDIA's \"Favorite Son\" CoreWeave Faces Major Earnings Test Tonight! After Soaring 245%, Market Worries About Three Things" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/285553106.md" description: "CoreWeave will release its Q1 earnings after the bell today, marking a critical test for the AI computing power leasing company after its stock surged 245% cumulatively since its IPO. Wall Street expects revenue to approach $2 billion, doubling year-over-year, but the average analyst target price has already fallen below the current share price. The market's top three concerns are: whether capital expenditures will again exceed expectations, whether gross margins can continue to expand, and the latest developments regarding high debt pressure and its relationship with OpenAI" datetime: "2026-05-07T12:36:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285553106.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285553106.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285553106.md) --- # NVIDIA's "Favorite Son" CoreWeave Faces Major Earnings Test Tonight! After Soaring 245%, Market Worries About Three Things After the U.S. market close on Thursday local time, AI cloud computing infrastructure company CoreWeave will release its Q1 2026 earnings report. Headquartered in Livingston, New Jersey, the company’s core business revolves around leasing computing power from NVIDIA's latest chips. Since its IPO in March 2025, its stock price has cumulatively skyrocketed by 245%, with a year-to-date gain of 93%. Over the past month, CoreWeave has successively announced cooperation agreements with Meta, Anthropic, and Jane Street Group, further igniting market enthusiasm. However, the higher the stock rises, the higher the market's expectations become. Among the 36 analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 23 have issued Buy ratings, while only two recommend Sell. Nevertheless, their average 12-month target price is $131, which is lower than CoreWeave's closing price on Wednesday—meaning that even bullish analysts **feel the current stock price has "run too fast."** Current market concerns regarding this earnings report are straightforward: **whether capital expenditures will exceed expectations, whether profit margins can continue to expand, and the latest progress on debt levels and the relationship with OpenAI.** ## What Numbers Is Wall Street Waiting For? Wall Street expects CoreWeave's Q1 revenue to approach $2 billion, doubling from the same period last year; the loss per share is expected to be $1.20, an improvement from $1.49 in the same period last year. As of December 31, 2025, CoreWeave's revenue backlog had approached $67 billion. A series of new contracts signed recently is expected to push this figure even higher. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Anurag Rana wrote in a report on May 4: > CoreWeave's Q1 performance will likely echo the strong results of Amazon and Google, reflecting rising demand for AI computing power and high spending driven by recent infrastructure expansion. We believe management is highly likely to raise its full-year 2026 revenue and capital expenditure targets, supported by a series of recent new financing agreements. In addition to quarterly performance, investors will focus closely on three things: full-year revenue guidance, the scale of remaining performance obligations (i.e., order backlog), and the visibility of the company's growth entering 2027. ## Concern One: Out-of-Control Capital Expenditures CoreWeave's business model is essentially "borrowing money to buy NVIDIA chips and then leasing out the computing power." This means capital expenditure is a core variable and the biggest risk point. In February this year, CoreWeave disclosed that capital expenditures would be higher than previously expected, causing its stock price to plummet 19% that day, marking its largest single-day drop in six months. Tejas Dessai, Director of Thematic Research at Global X ETFs, stated: > The market has developed certain psychological expectations regarding CoreWeave's level of capital expenditures. If the figures they announce far exceed these expectations, the market will scrutinize them very carefully. They must support these expenditures with corresponding scales of revenue growth. In other words, burning cash is acceptable, but it must yield results. ## Concern Two: Can Profit Margins Continue to Expand? High capital expenditures naturally shift the focus to profit margins. The market expects CoreWeave's Q1 gross margin to be approximately 67%. However, what investors truly want to see is whether this figure can continue to rise in the coming quarters. A team led by Bank of America analyst Tal Liani raised CoreWeave's target price from $120 to $140 in a report on May 5, writing: > Continued margin expansion is a necessary condition for further stock price increases. As the pace of full-year revenue recognition accelerates, we expect margins to improve accordingly. ## Concern Three: Debt and Uncertainty Regarding OpenAI Another hidden danger for CoreWeave is debt. Paul Meeks, Head of Technology Research at Freedom Capital Markets, holds an optimistic view of CoreWeave, but he also stated bluntly: > If they continue to finance every new contract at junk bond rates, it is unsustainable—because I do not believe this business can transform quickly enough to generate sufficient cash to pay double-digit interest rates. According to previous reports, a chip-collateralized loan from CoreWeave attracted up to $19 billion in subscription demand, showing that the market still has confidence in its financing capabilities. However, the long-term pressure of high-interest financing cannot be ignored. Furthermore, the relationship between CoreWeave and OpenAI is also a focus of investor attention. Last week, it was reported that OpenAI failed to meet its sales and user growth targets, causing CoreWeave's stock price to drop immediately upon the news. During tonight's earnings conference call, any latest statements regarding the cooperation between the two parties will be amplified and interpreted by the market. ## Ultimately, What Do Investors Want to Know Most? Meeks said that behind all these concerns, the core question for investors is actually quite simple: > Just tell me how many megawatts of computing power were online as of December 31, 2025, and how many active megawatts there were as of March 31, 2026. That is all I want. The scale of computing power coming online is the most direct proof of whether CoreWeave can fulfill its growth promises. Since its IPO, CoreWeave's stock price has dropped after each earnings report, but it has subsequently recovered its losses quickly. 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