--- title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Non-Farm Payroll Data to Be Released Tonight" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/285722748.md" description: "On May 8th, U.S. stock index futures all rose, with Dow futures up 0.34%, S&P 500 futures up 0.51%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.77%. The market generally expects an increase of 62,000 jobs in April, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. The month-on-month wage growth is expected to rebound to 0.3%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. The U.S. Department of Labor will release the April non-farm payroll report on Friday" datetime: "2026-05-08T12:19:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285722748.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285722748.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285722748.md) --- # U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Non-Farm Payroll Data to Be Released Tonight 1. On May 8th (Friday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all rose, with Dow futures up 0.34%, S&P 500 index futures up 0.51%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.77%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260508/1778242366119244.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell 0.99%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.17%, the French CAC 40 index fell 0.83%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.87%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260508/1778242321608145.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell 0.08%, priced at $94.73 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.33%, priced at $100.39 per barrel. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260508/1778242336666149.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **April Non-Farm Payroll Preview: Surface Slowdown but Core Remains Tight, Wage Recovery Strengthens Fed's No Rate Cut Expectation for the Year.** The market generally expects 62,000 new jobs in April, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%; the month-on-month wage growth rate is expected to rebound to 0.3%, further solidifying the Fed's expectation of no rate cuts this year. The US job growth in April is expected to slow compared to the previous month, mainly due to the fading seasonal boost from warmer weather and the diminishing impact of previously striking healthcare workers returning to work. However, this does not indicate a substantial change in the fundamentals of the labor market—market expectations are that the unemployment rate will stabilize at 4.3%. The highly anticipated April non-farm payroll report from the US Department of Labor, to be released on Friday, is also expected to show a speed-up in wage growth for the month. **Two Iranian oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the US military's attack on the Iranian tankers.** Two radio recordings provided by crew members of stranded vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on the 8th show that the two tankers were attacked that day and requested assistance. According to the ship names reported in the recordings, "SEASTARIII" and "SEVDA," both vessels are Iranian tankers. Analysts pointed out that the relevant recordings may be communications among Iranian personnel regarding the attack on the vessels and calling nearby Iranian forces for assistance. On the 8th, the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the US military's attacks on two Iranian tankers and several locations along the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing the determination of the Iranian armed forces to defend Iran's territorial integrity, independence, and national sovereignty against any aggression. **Anthropic takes it to the next level! Reportedly planning to raise $50 billion this summer, valuation approaching $1 trillion, surpassing OpenAI.** In the race for the "pole position" in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, Anthropic seems to have completed its overtaking of OpenAI According to reports, Anthropic is considering raising hundreds of billions of dollars this summer to significantly expand its computing capabilities, with a valuation approaching $1 trillion, surpassing OpenAI, which just completed a record $122 billion financing at a valuation of $852 billion in March this year. Three insiders stated that Anthropic is expected to raise up to $50 billion in this round of financing. The deal is likely to be completed within two months. **Bank of America: U.S. stocks and gold are heading towards a rare "four consecutive years of gains," with materials stocks potentially becoming the main line of the next bull market.** Michael Hartnett, a well-known strategist at Bank of America, stated that U.S. stocks and gold are on track for double-digit gains for the fourth consecutive year, a remarkably strong trend that is extremely rare in history. The team led by Hartnett pointed out that the S&P 500 index is expected to achieve an annualized return of 20%, while gold is expected to see a 30% increase. They noted that such long-term "large-scale" increases in the stock market have only occurred during World War II, in the years of peace following the war, and during the bubble period from 1995 to 1999. The long-term sustained rise in gold occurred during the stagflation period of the 1970s. **Is the AI bull market 60% complete? The legendary investor who accurately predicted "Black Monday" rings the bell: it can last another year or two.** One of the most watched macro investors globally, Paul Tudor Jones, founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment, dropped a heavy thought bomb in an interview. This legendary hedge fund manager, who gained fame for successfully predicting and profiting from the "Black Monday" crash in 1987, provided a timeline for the AI bull market that is both optimistic and cautionary: there is still about one to two years of upward space in this AI-driven U.S. stock bull market, and he has recently increased his holdings in AI-related stocks through a "basket" approach; however, if the market rises another 40%, the valuation expansion will create conditions for a "suffocating" correction. ## Individual Stock News **Microchip Technology (MCHP.US) Q4 revenue increased by 35% year-on-year, Q1 performance guidance significantly exceeds expectations.** Microchip Technology's Q4 revenue increased by 35% year-on-year to $1.31 billion, higher than the analyst consensus estimate of $1.26 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.57, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $0.50; adjusted gross margin was 61.6%, also higher than the analyst consensus estimate of 61%. Looking ahead, Microchip Technology expects Q1 revenue for fiscal year 2027 to be between $1.44 billion and $1.47 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of $1.34 billion; it expects adjusted gross margin to be between 62.3% and 63.3%, while the market expectation is 61.6%. The company also revealed that its board has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.455 per share to common stockholders. **Hundreds of billions in backlog orders vs. burning cash on AI! CoreWeave (CRWV.US) shows the brutal "cost of growth": Q1 profits plummet, Q2 guidance falls short of expectations.** CoreWeave achieved total revenue of $2.08 billion in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 112%, exceeding the LSEG consensus estimate of $1.97 billion This growth rate not only continues the high growth trend since the company's IPO but also makes it one of the fastest-growing publicly listed companies in the AI infrastructure sector. Under GAAP, CoreWeave's net loss in the first quarter reached $740 million, a 135% increase from a net loss of $315 million in the same period last year, with a net loss rate of 36%. The adjusted net loss was $589 million, with an adjusted net loss rate of 28%, both significantly worse than the same period last year. The revenue guidance for the second quarter is between $2.45 billion and $2.6 billion, with a midpoint of $2.53 billion, lower than the consensus expectation of about $2.7 billion from analysts. **Is the AI halo failing? Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI.US) Q1 revenue and EPS both fall short of expectations.** Applied Optoelectronics' Q1 revenue grew 51% year-on-year to $151.1 million, but was below the expected $154.81 million. The adjusted loss per share was $0.07, worse than the market expectation of a loss of $0.05 per share. Looking ahead to the second quarter, the company expects revenue in the range of $180 million to $198 million, with a midpoint of $189 million, below the market expectation of $196 million; it expects adjusted EPS to range from a loss of $0.03 to a profit of $0.03, far below the expected $0.07; and expects an adjusted gross margin of 29%-30%. **Betting on breaking through the entertainment core business! Sony (SONY.US) Q4 net profit plummets 63%, yet issues double-digit growth guidance for the new fiscal year.** For the three months ending in March this year, Sony's net profit plummeted 63% year-on-year to 83.12 billion yen, far below the average analyst forecast of 202.24 billion yen. Revenue for the quarter grew 8.3% year-on-year to 3.036 trillion yen. For the full year, Sony's operating profit for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to grow 13.4% year-on-year to 1.45 trillion yen, but this figure is still below the market expectation of 1.56 trillion yen. Sales increased by 3.7% to 12.48 trillion yen, while net profit declined by 3.4% to 1.03 trillion yen. Looking ahead, the gaming business is expected to show a typical "revenue decline with profit increase" pattern. Sony expects annual sales in this segment to decline by 6% to 4.42 trillion yen (approximately $28 billion). **Cloudflare (NET.US) AI efficiency gains fail to meet market's high growth expectations: 20% layoffs, Q2 revenue guidance slightly below expectations.** In the first fiscal quarter ending March 31, Cloudflare's nearly all key performance indicators fell short of analysts' consensus expectations. Revenue reached $639.8 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 34%, exceeding the consensus expectation of $621.9 million from LSEG. The three major regions of the U.S., EMEA, and APAC achieved synchronized growth of 34%, 31%, and 34%, respectively. In terms of profitability, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.25, exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.23 by about 9%. The GAAP net loss was $22.9 million (loss of $0.07 per share), significantly narrowing from a loss of $38.45 million (loss of $0.11 per share) in the same period last year The revenue guidance for the second quarter is between $664 million and $665 million, with an adjusted earnings per share of $0.27. **Tariffs hit Toyota Motor (TM.US) hard: Q4 operating profit halved, new fiscal year profit guidance cut by over 20%.** Toyota Motor's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was 12.60 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, in line with market expectations; operating profit plummeted by 49% to 569.4 billion yen, far below the market expectation of 813.28 billion yen; net profit was 817.2 billion yen, compared to 664.6 billion yen in the same period last year. Toyota Motor's operating profit has declined year-on-year for the fourth consecutive quarter, reflecting the ongoing pressure from U.S. tariffs. Looking ahead, Toyota Motor has lowered its operating profit guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2027 by over 20% to 3 trillion yen, while raising its full-year sales guidance by 0.6%. **AI giants are burning cash like crazy, but TSMC (TSM.US) is "hitting the brakes": April revenue growth hits a six-month low.** TSMC's revenue in April reached NT$410.73 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%. Although it achieved a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, this is the smallest increase in nearly six months, and compared to the staggering 45.2% surge in March, the year-on-year growth rate has significantly narrowed. However, this growth only reflects 30 days of business activity, and its revenue will fluctuate monthly. Analysts expect the company's revenue growth rate for the June quarter to be nearly double the current rate, reaching about 35%. Despite the cooling performance in April, TSMC's cumulative revenue for the first four months still reached NT$1.5448 trillion, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 29.9%. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts Beijing time 20:30: U.S. April non-farm payroll changes (seasonally adjusted). Beijing time 22:00: U.S. May Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value, U.S. March wholesale inventory month-on-month final value. Next day Beijing time 01:00: U.S. total number of active drilling rigs as of the week ending May 8. 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