--- title: "非农就业人数超预期但薪资放缓 市场打消年内加息疑虑" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/285736698.md" description: "美国劳动力市场在经历波动后显现企稳信号。4 月非农就业人数增加 11.5 万，超出预期的 6.5 万，失业率维持在 4.3%。薪资增速放缓，平均时薪环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 3.6%，均低于预期。尽管薪资增速温和，但实际收入因工时增加得到支撑。整体数据指向劳动力市场温和降温，但并未崩溃。" datetime: "2026-05-08T13:48:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285736698.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285736698.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285736698.md) --- # 非农就业人数超预期但薪资放缓 市场打消年内加息疑虑 According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the U.S. labor market is showing increasingly clear signs of stabilization after nearly a year of fluctuations. The latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday shows that non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April. Although this is a significant drop from the exceptionally strong 185,000 in March, it exceeds market expectations of 65,000. This marks the first time in nearly a year that U.S. job positions have achieved two consecutive months of growth. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260508/1778246920289432.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) The unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 4.3% for two consecutive months, further confirming that only moderate job growth is needed to maintain stability in the labor market against the backdrop of limited labor force growth. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260508/1778246928705490.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **Employment stabilization coexists with structural differentiation, wage slowdown, and complex signals from deeper indicators** Dan North, a senior economist at Allianz North America, stated: “I carefully reviewed this report looking for issues, but the data this month is nearly impeccable. The overall numbers are not astonishing; I believe they still point to a moderately cooling labor market, but certainly not a collapse.” From a sector-specific perspective, employment growth shows structural differentiation. The healthcare sector continues to be a mainstay, adding 37,000 jobs; the transportation and warehousing sector increased by 30,000, retail added 22,000, and the social assistance sector contributed 17,000 jobs. The construction and leisure hospitality sectors also achieved growth for the second consecutive month, which analysts believe may partly stem from the demand for construction labor driven by data center construction. However, the chill in the technology sector continues. Affected by layoffs implemented by large tech companies to offset massive expenditures in the artificial intelligence field, the information services sector saw a reduction of 13,000 jobs in April, marking the 16th consecutive month of layoffs in this sector. Since November 2022, this sector has cumulatively cut 342,000 positions, a decline of 11%. Employment in manufacturing also saw a slight decline. The wage data in this report fell short of expectations, alleviating some concerns about an upward spiral in inflation. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year in April, both lower than market estimates of 0.3% and 3.8%. Although wage growth is moderate, the increase in average weekly hours has provided some support for workers' actual take-home income. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260508/1778246943536292.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) It is noteworthy that the "household survey" section of the employment report reveals deeper challenges in the labor market. A broader unemployment rate indicator, which includes part-time workers and discouraged job seekers, has risen to 8.2%, the highest level this year. This is mainly due to a surge of 445,000 people forced to work part-time for economic reasons, bringing the total to 4.9 million At the same time, the labor participation rate fell to 61.8%, hitting a new low since October 2021, and the number of employed people under the household survey has declined for the fourth consecutive month. Looking back at the data from the previous two months, the revised results are mixed: the non-farm payrolls for March were slightly revised up by 7,000, but the February data was further revised down from an initial decline of 92,000 to a decline of 156,000. Other labor market data released this week mostly pointed to "stability," with continuing claims for unemployment benefits remaining low, and ADP research indicating that April was the best month for hiring in over a year. **Federal Reserve Divergence Intensifies, Market Bets on Long-term Wait-and-see** As this report was released, the Federal Reserve is at a delicate moment, with an unusual level of divergence among officials regarding monetary policy. Although the number of layoffs remains at its lowest level in decades, economists are increasingly viewing the slowdown in hiring as a major factor in the cooling of the labor market. While hard data shows strong performance, sentiment indicators indicate that hiring plans in both manufacturing and services are weak. Last week, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged with a vote of 8 to 4, the highest number of dissenting votes since 1992. Officials largely agreed on the decision to maintain rates, but there were differences in how to communicate the policy direction. Dissenting officials generally believe that the next action could be either a rate hike or a rate cut, depending on how the situation develops. Additionally, the situation in Iran and tariff issues have made policy-making more complex. With former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh awaiting Senate confirmation for his appointment, a new chair for the Federal Reserve is expected soon. The market generally expects that, given the difficult balance between high prices and a resilient labor market (despite a noticeable slowdown in hiring compared to previous years), interest rates will remain unchanged for the year. According to the Federal Reserve watch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market currently estimates the probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting has dropped to 15.5%, while the probability of maintaining rates has risen to 71.8%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260508/1778246956763791.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) The market reacted positively to this data. Following the report's release, the three major U.S. stock indices rose in early trading, U.S. Treasury yields remained low, and the dollar weakened ### Related Stocks - [XLF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLF.US.md) - [159612.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159612.CN.md) - [IAI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAI.US.md) - [513500.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/513500.CN.md) - [XDAT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XDAT.US.md) - [QQEW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQEW.US.md) - [ONEQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ONEQ.US.md) - [ARKK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ARKK.US.md) - [ARTY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ARTY.US.md) - [FNCL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FNCL.US.md) - [QQQM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [IXN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXN.US.md) - [ARKG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ARKG.US.md) - [SKYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKYY.US.md) - [VFH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VFH.US.md) - [CLOU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CLOU.US.md) - [CIBR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CIBR.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [TQQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [XSW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XSW.US.md) - [CME.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CME.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [US rate futures see lower hike chances, higher odds of Fed pause](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285729694.md) - [What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285679744.md) - [April Nonfarm Payrolls Top Views; Fed Seen Holding Rates Again](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285749154.md) - [U.S. job growth in April comes in higher than expected](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285725696.md) - [US adds 115,000 jobs in April despite concerns over Iran war](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285813993.md)