--- title: "BofA's Hartnett: U.S. Stock Strength Is Historically Rare; Gold Poised for 30% Gain This Year" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/285751979.md" description: "The team led by Michael Hartnett at Bank of America points out that U.S. stocks and gold are heading toward a rare fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains, with the S&P 500's annualized gain expected to reach 20% and gold potentially hitting 30%. Recently, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs, while gold's year-to-date high approached $5,600 per ounce, just a step away from the 30% gain target of $5,631.6. The team believes market breadth is improving, with small-cap stocks, emerging markets, and commodities reaching a \"long-term bullish inflection point.\"" datetime: "2026-05-08T16:03:44.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285751979.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285751979.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285751979.md) --- # BofA's Hartnett: U.S. Stock Strength Is Historically Rare; Gold Poised for 30% Gain This Year U.S. stocks and gold are moving together toward a rare fourth year of double-digit gains, a historically strong performance that has drawn significant attention from top Wall Street strategists. According to Bloomberg, the team led by Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that **the S&P 500's annualized gain is expected to reach 20%, while gold is poised for a 30% annual gain,** a sustained "major-level" rally that is extremely rare in history. For U.S. stocks, similar sustained major-level rallies have occurred only three times: during World War II, in the post-war peace dividend period, and during the tech bubble from 1995 to 1999. Meanwhile, gold's long-term strength has primarily been concentrated in the stagflation era of the 1970s. In terms of market performance, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 both hit new record highs recently. The S&P 500 started the year at 6,858 points and rose to a high of 7,394 points, representing a cumulative gain of approximately 7.8%. The Nasdaq Composite began the year at 23,236 points and reached a high of 26,144 points, marking a cumulative gain of about 12.5%. Regarding gold, the spot price started the year at $4,332 per ounce. **Based on the BofA team's forecast of a 30% annual gain, the corresponding target price is $5,631.6 per ounce.** Although gold prices recently pulled back to $4,734 per ounce, they touched a historical high of $5,598.8 per ounce earlier this year, **just a step away from the aforementioned theoretical target,** with a difference of approximately $32.8. In terms of market impact, Hartnett's team's latest judgment is that **small-cap stocks, emerging markets, and commodities have all reached a "long-term bullish inflection point,"** with the materials sector explicitly identified as the next area of strength. ## Market Rotation Accelerates, Materials Sector Becomes the Next Protagonist In recent years, the strong performance of U.S. stocks has been primarily driven by mega-cap technology stocks. **The AI capital expenditure boom has become the core driver of the latest rally,** with extremely high concentration, where a few individual stocks contributed the majority of the gains. However, **market breadth is improving, with other sectors and asset classes showing more pronounced upward momentum.** Small-cap stocks, emerging market equities, and commodities are all viewed by the team as being at a "long-term bullish inflection point," underpinned by the resilience demonstrated by the U.S. economy. Market consensus forecasts indicate that nominal U.S. economic growth is expected to reach 5.5% this year, with corporate earnings growth projected at 20%, providing fundamental support for a broader market rise. In terms of specific sector allocation, **the BofA team lists materials stocks as the next potential area of strength.** Currently, the materials sector accounts for only about 2% of the S&P 500's weight, near its lowest level in nearly 30 years. Hartnett's team believes this pattern is about to change. 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