--- title: "Attracting Global Capital: Asia's New \"Super Cycle\" Is Unfolding" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/285831785.md" description: "Driven by the AI wave, Asian stock markets are experiencing a new round of gains. Morgan Stanley predicts that fixed asset investment in Asia will rise from $11 trillion in 2025 to $16 trillion in 2030. The core drivers cover three main themes: AI infrastructure, energy security, and defense spending. China holds significant advantages in the localization of AI chips, robot exports, and new energy sectors" datetime: "2026-05-10T06:57:32.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285831785.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285831785.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285831785.md) --- # Attracting Global Capital: Asia's New "Super Cycle" Is Unfolding Investors are turning their attention to Asia, seeking the next breakthrough in the global stock market rally. Driven by the artificial intelligence wave, the South Korean stock market has led global gains this month, attracting a massive influx of capital. Implied volatility in the options market has subsequently surged to extreme levels, with derivatives strategists competing to recommend bullish structures. All these signals point to a single conclusion: the rally in Asia may have just begun. According to Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley’s Asia-Pacific team has recently emphasized that the underlying drivers of Asia’s industrial cycle are shifting from traditional real estate and general manufacturing restocking to **AI and its infrastructure, energy security and transition, and investments in defense and supply chain resilience.** (By 2030, total fixed investment in Asia will increase to $16 trillion) Morgan Stanley expects the scale of fixed asset investment in Asia to rise from approximately $11 trillion in 2025 to $16 trillion in 2030, with a nominal compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7% from 2026 to 2030, significantly higher than recent levels. (Between 2026 and 2030, total fixed capital investment in Asia will maintain a 7% compound annual growth rate) ## The Underlying Logic of the "Super Cycle": A Significant Acceleration in Asian Capital Expenditure The most core difference in this round of Asia’s industrial cycle is that AI has pushed capital expenditure back into the spotlight. Over the past two years, market discussions on AI have focused more on models, applications, and the US stock market’s "Magnificent Seven." However, from an Asian perspective, the true meaning of AI is: **the comprehensive expansion of chips, memory, servers, optical modules, data centers, power systems, and cloud infrastructure.** Morgan Stanley noted that the proportion of global CIOs listing AI as their top priority has risen to 39%. Correspondingly, global investment in AI data centers is expected to reach approximately $2.8 trillion between 2026 and 2028, with an annual growth rate of about 33%. (Capital expenditures related to data centers in the global artificial intelligence sector will continue to increase) **Asia is at the center of the AI hardware supply chain: from TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix to semiconductor, server, optical communication, and cloud infrastructure companies in mainland China, all will benefit from this investment cycle.** The report also predicts that capital expenditures by major chip companies are expected to rise from approximately $105 billion in 2025 to about $250 billion annually by 2028. This means AI is a capital-intensive race. **China’s role is particularly noteworthy.** Morgan Stanley believes that China’s AI competition is one of complete systemic capabilities: **computing power determines speed, cloud platforms determine scale, token usage determines economic efficiency, and application scenarios determine value attribution.** Against the backdrop of ongoing external chip restrictions, the linkage between domestic AI chips, local cloud platforms, and large model ecosystems is becoming the new main theme of technology investment in China. (Relative advantages of the artificial intelligence industries in China and the United States) **Its assessment shows that China’s AI chip market could reach $67 billion by 2030, with the local self-sufficiency rate expected to rise to 86%.** Whether this forecast will be fully realized remains to be seen, but the direction is clear: the localization of computing power has gradually shifted from a policy proposition to a commercial one. ## The Export Story of Chinese Manufacturing Is Expanding from the "EV Trio" to Robots In recent years, the brightest spots in China’s export structure have been the "new trio": electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics. The report suggests that the next incremental growth for Chinese manufacturing may come from robots, especially industrial and humanoid robots. Morgan Stanley points out that China has captured about half of the incremental global demand for industrial robots. Global shipments of humanoid robots in 2025 are estimated at approximately 13,000 to 16,000 units, with about 90% coming from Chinese manufacturers. In contrast, markets such as the United States and Japan are still largely in the prototype or early verification stages. **More interestingly, the report compares current Chinese robot exports to electric vehicle exports around 2019: at that time, EV exports had not yet entered their explosion phase, but the supply chain, policy support, and manufacturing capabilities were basically ready.** (China’s humanoid and industrial robot industries are at a development stage similar to the early stage of the electric vehicle industry) **Today, the robot industry exhibits similar characteristics—while the market size is not yet large, the supply chain is expanding rapidly.** Data shows that by March 2026, the 12-month rolling scale of China’s humanoid robot and robot-related exports had reached approximately $1.5 billion, a level comparable to China’s electric vehicle exports in early 2020. In the following years, EV exports expanded rapidly, reaching approximately $70 billion for the full year of 2025, with the quarterly annualized run rate further rising to about $86 billion. **Of course, whether robots can replicate the EV curve depends on cost reductions, the opening up of application scenarios, and the overseas regulatory environment.** However, China’s advantages in components, complete machine manufacturing, supply chain coordination, and rapid iteration are already becoming apparent. ## Energy Security and Defense Spending Are Providing the Second and Third Growth Poles The other side of AI data center expansion is the huge demand for electricity and energy infrastructure. **The more intensive the computing power, the higher the importance of electricity, cooling, power grids, and energy storage.** Morgan Stanley believes that energy shocks will catalyze investment in energy security in Asia, and since the share of renewable energy in Asia’s primary energy consumption is still low, there is still significant room for subsequent investment. (The proportion of renewable energy in Asia’s energy structure remains small, and China benefits significantly from increased spending on energy transition) China possesses industrial advantages in photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and lithium batteries, with the 12-month rolling scale of related exports approaching the $200 billion mark, making it a key beneficiary of capital expenditures in this round of energy transition. **At the same time, defense spending is showing a structural upward trend in many Asian economies.** The share of defense spending in GDP has increased in Japan, South Korea, India, and other locations. China and South Korea are also among the top ten global defense exporters. (Across the region, the ratio of defense spending to GDP is trending upward) For capital markets, this means that demand in industrial chains such as high-end manufacturing, materials, electronic components, and precision equipment may receive more long-term support. **In other words, AI provides computing power demand, energy provides infrastructure constraints, and defense and supply chain security provide "resilience investment" against a geopolitical backdrop. The combination of these three forms the foundation of Asia’s super cycle.** ## Who Benefits Most? China, South Korea, and Japan Stand at the Core of the Industrial Chain **In terms of regional benefit order, Morgan Stanley specifically highlights China, South Korea, and Japan.** Mainland China excels in the completeness of its industrial chain, manufacturing scale, engineering capabilities, and emerging export categories such as new energy and robots. South Korea holds advantages in memory, HBM, batteries, and certain equipment and material segments; Japan still has deep accumulations in semiconductor equipment, materials, precision manufacturing, and industrial automation. **The share of capital goods exports also illustrates the point.** The report shows that Thailand accounts for about 38%, China about 36%, Japan about 35%, and South Korea about 30%. **This means that when the world enters a new round of equipment investment cycle, the external demand elasticity of these economies will be more pronounced.** **Finally, looking at capital market structures**, these markets have higher weights in industrial, tech hardware, and materials-related sectors, making it easier for macro capital expenditure cycles to map onto stock market performance. This also implies that the pricing logic of Asian markets may change in the coming years, with a focus on **which enterprises in the capital expenditure chain have orders, technical barriers, and profit elasticity.** ## Risks That Cannot Be Ignored: Overcapacity, Margins, and Geopolitical Friction The narrative of a super cycle is attractive, but it does not mean that all industries and companies will benefit synchronously. **First, the expansion of capital expenditure may bring phased supply pressure.** China’s new energy industry has already proven that scale advantages can quickly open up global markets, but this may also accompany price competition and margin volatility. Industries such as robots, AI hardware, photovoltaics, and energy storage may face similar issues in the future. **Second, technological restrictions and export controls remain variables.** There is huge potential for the localization of AI chips, but shortcomings still exist in advanced processes, HBM, EDA, and equipment materials. The report also mentions that while domestic chips still lag behind top-tier US chips, competitiveness can be enhanced through system optimization, advanced packaging, and software adaptation. **Third, employment structures will also be affected by AI.** In its "Future of Work" research, Morgan Stanley estimates that about 90% of occupations will be affected to varying degrees by AI automation and augmentation. In its sample companies, early AI applications have brought productivity improvements of over 11%, but this has also been accompanied by an average net job reduction of about 4%, with significant differences across countries and industries. For China, how to promote retraining and job transitions while improving efficiency will be an important topic for medium-to-long-term policy and corporate management. **Fourth, market volatility may increase.** The report also warns that the widening gap between bull and bear scenarios in regional markets means that investor divergence in expectations regarding AI capital expenditure, export orders, and profit realization will persist. ### Related Stocks - [SOXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXL.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Previewing the Product Logic Behind Waton’s Next AI Trading Platform | WTF Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285689060.md) - [Why Klarna's CMO built an AI replica of himself for employees to vent at](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285368951.md) - [Figure AI's robots can make a bed faster than you](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285805765.md) - [SPARC AI Hires Senergy Communication Capital | SPAIF Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285163916.md) - [Marc Andreessen's custom AI prompt calls for blunt, aggressive answers](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285236675.md)