--- title: "Goldman sees ‘AI-driven super surplus’ swelling in South Korea, Taiwan" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/285971539.md" description: "Goldman Sachs predicts that the AI-driven chip booms in South Korea and Taiwan will significantly increase their current-account surpluses, prompting potential interest rate hikes. They forecast two 25-basis point increases in South Korea and two 12.5-basis point hikes in Taiwan this year. The AI boom is expected to push South Korea's current account surplus above 10% of GDP and Taiwan's over 20%. Despite energy import challenges, the tech export surge is anticipated to dominate economic growth, with South Korea's GDP growth rebounding to 2.5% and Taiwan's accelerating to nearly 10%." datetime: "2026-05-11T16:06:10.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/285971539.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285971539.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/285971539.md) --- # Goldman sees ‘AI-driven super surplus’ swelling in South Korea, Taiwan South Korea and Taiwan’s artificial intelligence (AI)-fueled chip booms are set to swell both economies’ current-account surpluses to fresh records and pressure their central banks to raise interest rates later this year. That’s according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc economists led by Andrew Tilton, who now expect two 25-basis point interest rate hikes in South Korea in the third and fourth quarter, and two 12.5-basis point increases in Taiwan in the second and fourth quarters. The analysts see the tech-export surge pushing what they call the “AI-driven super surplus” in current accounts above 10 percent of GDO in South Korea this year and to over 20 percent of GDP in Taiwan. The trend will likely persist despite both economies’ reliance on energy imports from the Middle East, according to Goldman. “This AI boom is the strongest tech cycle on record for Korea and Taiwan,” the economists said in a note yesterday. “Even under our various adverse oil-price scenarios, the impact on chip-energy balances should be immaterial since the scale and growth of chip exports completely dominate the energy price path.” South Korea’s AI-related exports could triple to almost 30 percent of economic output this year — from less than 10 percent over the past decade — while Taiwan’s could rise further in excess of 30 percent of GDP, they wrote. Meantime, non-tech exports are likely to remain subdued amid regional oversupply and the energy shock confronting the region. So far, South Korea’s surplus has been recycled mainly into overseas equities and Taiwan’s into foreign exchange deposits, according to Goldman, but appreciation pressure may be building. “The K-shaped cycle argues for targeted, prudent fiscal policy,” the economists said. “With the outsized AI-driven export boom, both currencies should face appreciation.” Taiwan’s economy grew at its fastest since 1987 in the first quarter and South Korean exports have been on a tear, with shipments of semiconductors the primary driver. The boom is creating headaches for policymakers as the two-speed nature of growth sees few workers vault ahead while the rest languish. Still, bullish forecasts suggest there’s plenty of upside for both economies. A recent note from Morgan Stanley chief Asia economist Chetan Ahya said Asia is entering an industrial super-cycle that’s driven in part by the AI boom and AI-related infrastructure. The Goldman economists expect South Korea’s GDP growth to rebound to 2.5 percent this year, from 1 percent last year, and Taiwan’s to accelerate to almost 10 percent this year, from 8.7 percent last year. 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