--- title: "Australia's economy 'hostage' to Middle East war: Treasurer" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286082581.md" description: "Australia's Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that the country will avoid recession even if oil prices rise to $200 a barrel due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. He outlined a national budget that is significantly influenced by international events. Chalmers presented two economic scenarios: one where oil prices stabilize around $100, and a severe scenario with prices peaking at $200, leading to higher inflation and unemployment. Despite these challenges, Australia is better positioned than many countries to handle the crisis, benefiting from high commodity prices while also addressing low petrol reserves." datetime: "2026-05-12T10:17:08.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286082581.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286082581.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286082581.md) --- # Australia's economy 'hostage' to Middle East war: Treasurer Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers says his country will avoid a recession even if oil prices spiral higher (Kent Nishimura) Australia will avoid recession even if a prolonged Middle East war pushes the oil price to $200 a barrel, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Tuesday, outlining a national budget "heavily hostage to events overseas". "We didn't decide when this war began and have no control over when it will properly end," Chalmers said in a budget speech to parliament. Two scenarios were presented for the Australian economy -– a central case where oil stays near $100 a barrel until the end of next month, sliding to $80 by July next year, above its pre-conflict price. Inflation would peak at 5.0 percent in the middle of the year, with growth down half a percentage point at 1.75 percent. A more "severe scenario" sees the oil peak at $200 and take three years to fall, causing unemployment to spike and inflation to peak above seven percent. However Australia would not fall into recession even under a severe scenario, Chalmers said. "We are much better placed and better prepared than most countries to deal with this global crisis," he said. As one of the world's top exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal, Australia has benefited from soaring prices of these commodities amid the energy crisis from the conflict, filling government coffers. Its weak point has been low petrol reserves. The government spent Aus$10 billion to build a fuel reserve, increase onshore diesel and jet fuel supplies to 50 days, and reserve 20 percent of Australia’s gas exports for domestic users from next year. The budget had improved by Aus$45 billion ($32 billion) since a mid year update in December, with a deficit next year forecast to be Aus$2.8 billion lower at Aus$31.5 billion. Chalmers said the government would restrain real growth in spending to an average 1.5 percent, and had made the largest savings measures on record of Aus$63.8 billion, around half derived from limiting access to a national scheme to support disabled Australians. kln/djw/mtp ### Related Stocks - [BHP.AU](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BHP.AU.md) - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OXY.US.md) - [BHP.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BHP.UK.md) - [603353.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603353.CN.md) - [BP.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BP.UK.md) - [BHP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BHP.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XES.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [159588.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159588.CN.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXC.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VDE.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Inflation surges as nearly the entire country hates Trump’s economy](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286117997.md) - [Capital Economics sees oil at $150 per barrel through 2027 in an extreme case](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286549728.md) - [Oil rises more than 1% after drone attack on UAE nuclear power plant](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286683769.md) - [ROI-ENERGY WATCH: Alarms and clocks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286796437.md) - [Europe Gasoline/Naphtha-Gasoline refining margins edge higher](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286950210.md)