--- title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures All Decline as April CPI Approaches, Chip Stocks Drop in Pre-Market" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286092945.md" description: "U.S. stock index futures all fell, with the market focusing on the upcoming April CPI data, which is expected to rise 3.8% year-on-year. If the CPI exceeds expectations, it may lead to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, affecting stock market trends. Meanwhile, global stock markets are facing repricing pressure, especially for AI-related stocks. The U.S. government is considering resuming military actions against Iran, with differing opinions internally" datetime: "2026-05-12T11:49:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286092945.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286092945.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286092945.md) --- # U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures All Decline as April CPI Approaches, Chip Stocks Drop in Pre-Market ## Pre-Market Market Trends 1. As of May 12 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are all down before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.07%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.42%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.90%. ![21.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260512/1778586199839399.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 1.05%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.40%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.99%. ![22.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260512/1778586204885876.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 3.46%, priced at $101.46 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 3.21%, priced at $107.56 per barrel. ![23.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260512/1778586208848729.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **Is the "inflation beast" sweeping across the U.S. again? The upcoming CPI may pull the hot stock market into a short-term correction.** Data expected to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is projected to show that the overall CPI in April rose 3.8% year-on-year. If economists' latest predictions are accurate, this will be higher than the 3.3% year-on-year increase in March. Economists unanimously predict that the overall CPI will rise 0.6% month-on-month in April. Meanwhile, the core CPI is also expected to see a significant jump, with the month-on-month increase possibly rising from 0.2% to 0.4%, and the year-on-year increase potentially rising from 2.6% to 2.7%. According to the latest predictions from Wall Street strategists, an overly hot U.S. CPI data report could trigger a significant market shift—especially if the CPI is significantly higher than expected, the market may shift from "the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts this year" to "the Federal Reserve may have to reconsider raising interest rates." The global stock, bond, and currency markets may enter a more intense repricing phase, which could mean a significant downward correction trend in the global stock market bull market surrounding AI computing power trading, at least in the short term. **Reports suggest the U.S. may consider resuming military actions against Iran.** According to the latest news, insiders within the U.S. government have revealed that due to the lack of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, the U.S. is now "more seriously considering" resuming military actions against Iran than in the past few weeks. U.S. sources indicate that there are differing opinions within the government regarding the Iran issue. Some officials advocate for a hardline approach, including more targeted strikes to weaken Iran and force concessions at the negotiating table; others wish to give diplomatic negotiations more time. Additionally, reports suggest that one of the options currently being considered by the U.S. is to restart the so-called "Freedom Plan" to "facilitate" shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; another option is to resume military actions against Iran **"Big Short" investor Michael Burry warns: The Nasdaq's "parabolic" rise is akin to the eve of the internet bubble and is about to reverse sharply.** Michael Burry, the investor famous for the movie "The Big Short," has once again warned that the Nasdaq 100 index is heading for a severe reversal after experiencing a "parabolic" surge, which has pushed tech stock valuations to unsustainable highs. Burry posted that the current market conditions resemble the peak before the internet bubble burst, particularly noting the sharp rise in chip stocks, which has led the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index to increase nearly 70% since the end of March. He stated that, in his estimation, the Nasdaq 100 index's price-to-earnings ratio is 43 times—far above the implied level of about 30 times—because "Wall Street may have overestimated the earnings of our fastest-growing, highest-valued companies by more than 50%." He remarked, "We are witnessing history. This is not a good thing for the stock market." He compared it to "the scene just minutes before a horrific car crash." **As the "Big Short" calls for a crash, a well-known investor provides an "AI bull market timeline": The bubble could expand for another year.** According to Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager of Niles Investment Management, this AI-driven rally is far from over—at least for another year before it reaches its true peak. He compared today's AI-driven market to the internet bubble era but emphasized a key difference—this time, there is strong fundamental support behind the growth. This assessment is backed by data—information technology and communication services contributed 77% of the S&P 500's gains and 67% of the first-quarter earnings growth, also contributing 55% to the actual GDP growth for the quarter. The S&P 500's earnings growth rate reached 28% in the first quarter, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2021, with the semiconductor and equipment sector showing the highest growth at 99%. Niles explained, "The bubble may already exist, but before it bursts, it could still expand further." **Oil prices could soar to $150! JPMorgan warns: High inflation will force the Federal Reserve to "never cut rates" before 2027.** JPMorgan has issued a grim assessment of the global oil market, warning that supply disruptions caused by the US-Iran conflict could push Brent crude oil prices up to $150 and raise the US inflation rate to 4%, while keeping the Federal Reserve on hold until 2027. JPMorgan's global commodities strategy chief, Natasha Kaneva, stated that in April, global oil supply disruptions reached 13.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 14% of global demand. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the remaining production capacity of Saudi Arabia and the UAE is unavailable, and the global oil market is heavily reliant on inventory consumption to fill the gap, with inventory declining at a rate of 7.1 million barrels per day last month. Even so, there remains a gap of about 2 million barrels per day in the market. In terms of pricing, JPMorgan expects Brent crude oil prices to fluctuate between $120 and $130 per barrel in the near term, and if disruptions continue until mid-May, prices could reach $150 per barrel or even higher **The illusion of interest rate cuts ends! Goldman Sachs and Bank of America collectively turn against the tide, and the April non-farm payrolls may become the "last straw" for the Federal Reserve.** Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are the latest Wall Street giants to join the camp of "delaying interest rate cut predictions." They believe that both employment and inflation data support the argument for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged at least until the end of this year. Bank of America’s head of U.S. economic research, Michelle Meyer, stated, "The data simply does not support a rate cut this year. Core inflation is too high and on the rise. The strong April employment report is the last straw that broke the camel's back, especially considering the hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials." Meyer and her colleagues now expect that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates again until July 2027, a significant shift from their previous prediction of September this year. After the April non-farm employment data was released last Friday, the Goldman Sachs team also pushed back their prediction for the Federal Reserve's next rate cut from September to December 2026. ## Individual Stock News **Star tech stocks fall ahead of market opening, with chip stocks leading the decline.** As of the time of writing on Tuesday before the U.S. market opened, Intel (INTC.US) fell over 4%, Micron Technology (MU.US) and Qualcomm (QCOM.US) fell over 3%, AMD (AMD.US), ASML (ASML.US), and TSMC (TSM.US) fell nearly 2%, while Tesla (TSLA.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), and Oracle (ORCL.US) fell over 1%. **eBay (EBAY.US) rejects GameStop (GME.US) $56 billion acquisition offer, calling it unreliable.** GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen revealed last week that the company plans to acquire the e-commerce platform eBay for about $56 billion in cash and stock. However, eBay rejected this acquisition offer on Tuesday, with the company's chairman stating in a letter that the offer was "neither credible nor attractive." Prior to this, many investors had expressed skepticism about Cohen's ability to complete the deal, as he had not fully explained how to finance the acquisition. There are also market views speculating that Cohen's move is not a genuine pursuit of a merger, but rather an unconventional way to boost GameStop's stock price. Additionally, eBay's rejection could trigger a proxy battle to replace eBay's board with one favorable to the GameStop transaction. As of the time of writing, GameStop fell nearly 3% and eBay fell nearly 1% before the U.S. market opened on Tuesday. **Vodafone (VOD.US) Q4 sales growth exceeds expectations, service revenue in the German market returns to growth.** Vodafone stated that thanks to the company's focus on core markets and the recovery of its German business, organic revenue growth in the last quarter exceeded analysts' expectations. For the fourth fiscal quarter ending in March, organic service revenue increased by 5.1% year-on-year to €8.6 billion (approximately $10.1 billion), higher than the analysts' average expectation of 4.9%. Vodafone expects adjusted lease-adjusted EBITDA (EBITDAal) for the fiscal year 2027 to be between €11.9 billion and €12.2 billion, with adjusted free cash flow between €2.6 billion and €2.9 billion. For the fiscal year 2026, EBITDAal is expected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year to €11.4 billion. This metric is commonly used in industries with heavy leasing burdens to reflect cash flow conditions As of the time of publication, Vodafone fell nearly 6% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. **AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) Q1 revenue and profit fell far short of expectations, with full-year guidance being the only consolation.** Satellite communication company AST SpaceMobile released a disappointing Q1 financial report that shocked the market. The report showed that the company achieved revenue of only $14.73 million in Q1, which, although a dramatic increase from $718,000 in the same period last year, was far below the market expectation of $39 million. The net loss attributable to shareholders for the quarter reached $191 million, compared to a loss of $45.7 million in the same period last year, with the market's prior loss expectation being $86.8 million. The loss per share was $0.66, compared to a loss of only $0.20 per share in the same period last year, while the market expected a loss of $0.24 per share. The significant increase in operating expenses was a key driver of the expanded losses. Additionally, AST SpaceMobile maintained its full-year revenue guidance for 2026 at between $150 million and $200 million, which became a rare consolation for the market. Currently, Wall Street's forecast for the company's full-year revenue is approximately $181 million. As of the time of publication, AST SpaceMobile fell over 12% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. **Strong growth of nearly 30% in non-member music-related service revenue, Tencent Music (TME.US) Q1 total revenue of 7.9 billion yuan.** In Q1 2026, Tencent Music's performance continued to show steady growth. Tencent Music's total revenue for the first quarter was 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; adjusted net profit was 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; adjusted EBITDA was 2.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. Revenue from music-related services grew diversely, increasing by 12.2% year-on-year to 6.51 billion yuan. Among them, revenue from music-related membership services reached 4.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%; revenue from non-member music-related services grew particularly strong, increasing by 28.0% year-on-year to 1.94 billion yuan. In addition, the State Administration for Market Regulation announced the approval of Tencent's acquisition of equity in Himalaya with additional restrictive conditions. As of the time of publication, Tencent Music rose over 6% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts Beijing time 20:30 U.S. April CPI data Beijing time the next day 00:00 EIA releases the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report Beijing time the next day 01:00 Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a Q&A session hosted by the local chamber of commerce ## Earnings Forecast Pre-market on Wednesday: Alibaba (BABA.US), Nebius (NBIS.US), WeRide (WRD.US), Flex LNG (FLNG.US), UCL (UCL.US) ### Related Stocks - [QQQM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [562820.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/562820.CN.md) - [159325.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159325.CN.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [159546.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159546.CN.md) - [512480.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512480.CN.md) - [XLK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLK.US.md) - [SOXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXL.US.md) - [ARTY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ARTY.US.md) - [588200.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/588200.CN.md) - [SMH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMH.US.md) - [SOXX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXX.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [NDAQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NDAQ.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [.NDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [INTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/INTC.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [QCOM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QCOM.US.md) - [AMD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMD.US.md) - [ASML.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ASML.US.md) - [TSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [AVGO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AVGO.US.md) - [ORCL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ORCL.US.md) - [EBAY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EBAY.US.md) - [GME.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GME.US.md) - [VOD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOD.US.md) - [ASTS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ASTS.US.md) - [TME.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TME.US.md) - [21213.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/21213.HK.md) - [BABA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABA.US.md) - [09988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09988.HK.md) - [NBIS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NBIS.US.md) - [00800.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00800.HK.md) - [FLNG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FLNG.US.md) - [UCL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCL.US.md) - [ORCL-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ORCL-D.US.md) - [GME+.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GME+.US.md) - [VOD.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOD.UK.md) - [01698.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01698.HK.md) - [89988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/89988.HK.md) - [HBBD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HBBD.SG.md) ## Related News & Research - [Canadian Photonics Fabrication Centre being spun off as commercial pure-play III-V foundry](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285577037.md) - [SA analyst warns markets are gradually pricing inflation regime shift](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285992585.md) - [Sanchez Wealth Management Group Trims Stake in Invesco QQQ $QQQ](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285924327.md) - [LIVE MARKETS-Prioritizing capex over buybacks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286140035.md) - [Exaforce Raises US$125M Series B to Expand AI-Native Security Operations Platform](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286193730.md)