--- title: "Is the \"Duo Era\" of HBM Around the Corner? UBS: Samsung's Market Share Expected to Catch Up with SK Hynix Next Year" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286212385.md" description: "UBS has significantly raised its forecast for Samsung's 2027 HBM shipments to 23 billion Gb, projecting that Samsung and SK Hynix will each hold a 40% market share. This shift is driven by customers' continued strong demands for SK Hynix to allocate more capacity to DDR5 and LPDDR5X. Due to memory demand exceeding expectations, UBS has jumped its Q2 price increase forecast for server DDR from +37% to +60%" datetime: "2026-05-13T07:06:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286212385.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286212385.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286212385.md) --- # Is the "Duo Era" of HBM Around the Corner? UBS: Samsung's Market Share Expected to Catch Up with SK Hynix Next Year The AI computing arms race continues to heat up, and the landscape of the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is quietly changing. In its latest research report, UBS stated that by 2027, Samsung is expected to rival SK Hynix in HBM bit shipments, with each capturing approximately 40% of the market share, while Micron will hold about 20%. This would represent a historic reshaping of the HBM market structure, with profound implications for investors in related stocks. On the demand side, UBS raised its forecast for terminal HBM bit demand in 2026 from 31.5 billion Gb to 32.9 billion Gb (a year-on-year increase of 88%), and significantly increased the 2027 forecast from 53.9 billion Gb to 58 billion Gb (a year-on-year increase of 76%). The primary adjustment stems from an increased assumption for Google's TPU procurement volume. **Meanwhile, the HBM configuration for Nvidia's Rubin Ultra was adjusted down from the previously assumed 1TB (HBM4E 16-Hi) to 768GB (HBM4E 12-Hi). The report noted that this "remains an evolving situation with no final decision yet,"** suggesting that this move reflects Nvidia's proactive layout to avoid supply bottlenecks and address yield challenges in the 16-Hi stacking thermocompression bonding process. Regarding pricing, the increase in server memory prices also exceeded expectations. UBS significantly raised its forecast for the quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 DDR contract prices from the previous +37% to approximately +60%. It expects the average price of server DDR to reach $1.95 per Gb, with some DDR5 quotes approaching $2.10, a significant jump from $1.15 in Q1. The forecast for a +10% increase in Q3 remains unchanged, and server DDR prices are expected to approach $2.80/Gb by Q4 2027. For NAND flash, the forecast for price increases in Q2 tied contracts was also raised from +40% to +60%, similarly driven by demand for server SSDs. ## Samsung's Strong Catch-up: Expected to Share Equal Footing with SK Hynix by 2027 Samsung's counterattack in the HBM sector is the most noteworthy theme of this report. UBS maintained its forecast for Samsung's 2026 HBM shipments at 9.7 billion Gb (a year-on-year increase of 124%), but significantly raised its 2027 forecast from 20.3 billion Gb to 23 billion Gb (a year-on-year increase of 137%). This support is backed by Samsung's recent advance deployment of capital expenditures. If these forecasts materialize, Samsung and SK Hynix will each occupy a 40% share of the HBM bit market in 2027, achieving equal footing. In contrast, the report slightly lowered SK Hynix's HBM shipment forecasts—reducing the 2026 figure from 18.4 billion Gb to 17.7 billion Gb (a year-on-year increase of 40%), and the 2027 figure from 24.7 billion Gb to 23.1 billion Gb (a year-on-year increase of 30%). The reason is not a weakening of HBM competitiveness, but rather customers' continued strong demands for SK Hynix to shift more capacity to DDR5 and LPDDR5X. The report explicitly emphasized that HBM4 is not a supply bottleneck for the Rubin product line, which is expected to ramp up in the second half of the year. ## Divergence in Demand Structure: Nvidia's Dominance Declines as Google's Weight Rises Rapidly From a customer structure perspective, Nvidia will still account for about 60% of HBM demand in 2026, but this proportion is expected to drop to 48% in 2027. Google's share will leap from 19% in 2026 to 27% in 2027, corroborating UBS's simultaneous upward revisions for Broadcom and MediaTek forecasts. In terms of product generations, HBM3E 12-Hi will dominate in 2026 (accounting for 47%), while HBM4 will become the core in 2027 (accounting for 44%), with HBM4E reaching a 21% share. Regarding pricing, the assumption for the average price per bit of HBM4/HBM3E in 2027 was raised from flat to a year-on-year increase of +30%, while the premium of HBM4E over HBM4 remains unchanged at +50%. Overall, UBS's monthly report conveys a clear signal: the boom in AI infrastructure construction is still accelerating, the tight supply and demand situation in memory persists, and the pricing center is shifting comprehensively upward. Samsung's catching-up momentum is accelerating the reshaping of the HBM competitive landscape, and the duopoly pattern may arrive sooner than market expectations. ### Related Stocks - [002224.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002224.CN.md) - [SSNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSNGY.US.md) - [SMSN.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMSN.UK.md) - [159558.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159558.CN.md) - [588780.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/588780.CN.md) - [588170.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/588170.CN.md) - [07347.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07347.HK.md) - [512760.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512760.CN.md) - [07709.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07709.HK.md) - [588200.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/588200.CN.md) - [SOXX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXX.US.md) - [SMH.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMH.UK.md) - [FTXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FTXL.US.md) - [SMH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMH.US.md) - [PSI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSI.US.md) - [07747.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07747.HK.md) - [09747.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09747.HK.md) - [562820.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/562820.CN.md) - [159546.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159546.CN.md) - [159995.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159995.CN.md) - [03132.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03132.HK.md) - [561980.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/561980.CN.md) - [512480.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512480.CN.md) - [09347.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09347.HK.md) - [SOXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXL.US.md) - [159516.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159516.CN.md) - [XSD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XSD.US.md) - [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UBS.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [AVGO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AVGO.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [Samsung Electronics recovers $66 billion intraday wipeout after Seoul steps in to calm strike fears](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286187843.md) - [Samsung Elec union threatens to walk out of pay talks if no mediation proposal](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286084953.md) - [Chinese Retailers Rush to Clear Samsung Home Appliances From Shelves After Exit Announcement](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286248026.md) - [The 'DRAM' memory ETF has gotten off to a blazing start. 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