<div id="readability-page-1"><div><div><p>Author: Wednesday, Deep Tide TechFlow</p><p>Deep Tide Summary: The final round of negotiations between Samsung Electronics and the union officially broke down on May 13, and a strike involving 40,000 people will begin on May 21. The Reddit community (WallStreetBets channel) immediately saw a surge of posts bullish on Micron Technology (MU), with the core argument being: only three companies globally can produce HBM4, and one of them will be shut down for 18 days. Micron, as the only supplier with a factory in the United States, will be the biggest beneficiary.</p><p>Micron's stock price has surged by approximately 140% in the past month, with Deutsche Bank giving a target price of $1,000, and retail investors even calling for $1,300. But this is essentially a &#34;binary gamble&#34;: once the strike is resolved, the logic behind the surge could instantly reverse.</p><p>Micron's stock price has surged by approximately 140% in the past month, with Deutsche Bank giving a target price of $1,000, and retail investors even calling for $1,300. But this is essentially a &#34;binary gamble&#34;: once the strike is resolved, the logic behind the surge could instantly reverse.</p><p> Samsung Electronics' labor negotiations officially broke down on May 13, and an 18-day strike involving more than 40,000 employees is now imminent. This news quickly ignited trading enthusiasm among US retail investors in the memory chip supply chain, with Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) becoming a focal point of discussion. A popular Reddit post, &#34;Micron is the cleanest play on the imminent Samsung strike,&#34; quickly garnered over 500 upvotes. The core argument of the post by willbabu can be broken down into four layers: First, HBM4 is the biggest bottleneck in the entire AI infrastructure, and only three companies globally can manufacture it: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. If Samsung were to shut down for 18 days, the production line would require weeks, not days, to reset, resulting in an actual impact far exceeding 18 days. Second, while SK Hynix is ​​the leader in the HBM field, its DRAM, NAND, and HBM production capacity is entirely locked into contracts with Nvidia until the end of 2026, leaving it with &#34;nothing to sell&#34; when spot prices surge. Micron also has HBM sold out until 2026, but the difference is: if Samsung halts production for 18 days, spot DRAM and NAND prices will surge, while Micron has more standard DRAM and NAND capacity than SK Hynix, allowing it to directly benefit from the price increase. Third, Micron possesses structural advantages that SK Hynix lacks: a US-based factory (located in Boise, Idaho), zero exposure to Korean labor risks, and no discounts from Korean chaebol governance. The original post was quite straightforward: &#34;If you were a hyperscale cloud provider urgently needing memory chips during a strike, would you call someone in Boise who can ship, or someone in Pyeongtaek who can't?&#34; Fourth, Micron is directly listed on a US stock exchange, while US retail investors can only indirectly hold SK Hynix through ETFs. This &#34;asymmetric accessibility&#34; means that when the Samsung strike deal spreads among retail investors, funds will disproportionately flow into Micron. The post author disclosed holdings of 1200 shares (average price $464) plus 100 shares (average price $381), with a target price of $1300. Their calculation logic is: HBM business maintains a gross margin of approximately 80%, and its proportion of revenue continues to rise; hybrid earnings per share (EPS) will easily exceed $80, and the forward P/E ratio corresponding to $1300 is only about 16 times. Samsung Negotiations Break Down, Strike Enters Final Countdown</p><p>The fervor in retail investor communities has a basis in reality.</p><p>According to the Korea Times on May 13, the final round of mediation negotiations between Samsung Electronics and its largest union officially broke down that day. The union demanded that Samsung allocate 15% of its operating profits to employee bonuses and include it in the labor contracts, while Samsung's proposed 10% plan was rejected. The two sides have sharp disagreements over the distribution of AI-related performance bonuses.</p><p>The strike is scheduled from May 21 to June 7, involving more than 40,000 employees, the vast majority of whom are from the semiconductor manufacturing division. According to analysts cited by the Korea Times, the losses caused by the strike could reach 1 trillion won (approximately US$671 million) per day. Samsung has filed an injunction application with the Suwon District Court in an attempt to stop the strike, and the ruling is expected before the strike begins.</p><p>According to Jefferies research, the strike could affect approximately 3% of global memory chip production capacity. JPMorgan Chase estimates that Samsung's annual operating profit could decrease by more than 40 trillion won as a result. More seriously, a prolonged production halt could lead to Samsung losing key customers such as Nvidia. Micron's stock price surged 140% in a month, with a significant divergence in target prices between institutional and retail investors. The market has already priced in this supply shock. Micron's stock price soared from a low of around $310 in March, reaching a 52-week high of $818.67 on May 11, a gain of approximately 140% in one month, pushing its market capitalization above $900 billion. It corrected to around $766 on May 12. According to Yahoo Finance data, Micron's revenue reached $23.9 billion in the last fiscal quarter (Q2 of fiscal year 2026), a year-on-year increase of 196%, with earnings per share of $12.20, exceeding expectations by 32.8%. On the institutional side, Deutsche Bank raised its target price for Micron to $1,000, the highest on Wall Street. Analyst Sidney Ho believes that AI-driven HBM demand is a structural trend, and supply tightness may continue until 2028. However, the Wall Street consensus target price is only $581.89, significantly lower than the current share price, reflecting the divergence of opinions among institutions regarding the current valuation. Retail investors on WallStreetBets have set a target price of $1,300, far exceeding any institutional prediction. The core risk: Settlement could lead to a reversal. The biggest risk of this deal is also clear: it's essentially a binary bet. ainvest's analysis points out that Micron's stock price surged 75% in a month (the timeframe for this figure is slightly earlier than the latest increase), and if the Samsung strike ends in a settlement, the stock price faces a sharp reversal risk. JPMorgan Chase also reminds investors that the final outcome of labor disputes is a &#34;clearing event&#34; for the current market, and before that, directional bets are extremely risky. The memory chip market itself is highly cyclical. Even without the strike, memory contract prices are already projected to rise by about 60% this year. If a strike occurs, it will add another layer of shock to an already tight supply and demand situation; if it doesn't, the market will need to reassess how much of the current pricing includes a &#34;strike premium.&#34; Samsung may still reach a final agreement before May 21st, although the probability seems low at present.</p></div></div></div>

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<p>Samsung Electronics faces a strike involving 40,000 employees starting May 21 after labor negotiations broke down. This has led to increased interest in Micron Technology, which is expected to benefit from the disruption, with retail investors predicting its stock could reach $1,300. Micron's stock has surged 140% recently, driven by its unique position as a US-based supplier of memory chips. Analysts warn that the strike could significantly impact global memory chip production and Samsung's profits, with potential losses reaching $671 million per day.</p>

- The final negotiations between Samsung Electronics and the union failed on May 13, leading to an impending strike involving over 40,000 workers starting May 21.  
- This event has driven interest in Micron Technology, as analysts predict significant gains due to supply constraints, with stock prices soaring approximately 140% over the past month.  
- However, this situation is characterized as a "binary gamble," with potential for sharp price reversals if the strike is settled quickly.

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Samsung's 40,000-person strike countdown ends in 8 days; retail investors predict Micron will reach $1,300.