--- title: "Rupee seen testing record lows; bonds to extend fall on Iran war jitters" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286705330.md" description: "The Indian rupee is expected to test record lows this week, influenced by the ongoing Iran war, which has caused a 5% decline since February 28. Bond yields are also rising due to increased oil prices, with India's 10-year benchmark bond yield climbing to 7.0644%. Economists predict further depreciation of the rupee and a potential rise in bond yields to 7.25% in the first half of the fiscal year, amid geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures." datetime: "2026-05-18T01:32:10.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286705330.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286705330.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286705330.md) --- # Rupee seen testing record lows; bonds to extend fall on Iran war jitters By Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI, May 18 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee could plumb to record lows again this week, while bonds are expected to extend their fall, as investors fret over growth-inflation risks facing Asia's ‌third-largest economy on account of the Iran war. The rupee slipped past the 96-per-dollar mark to hit a record low ‌last week, falling 5% since the Iran war erupted on February 28. Brent crude oil prices climbed to nearly $110 per barrel, sending global bond yields higher on ​rising expectations that central banks would need to tighten monetary policy to rein in inflationary pressures. Policymakers in India have also taken measures to ease pressure on the rupee including by imposing curbs on imports of precious metals. The central bank has intervened in markets alongside limiting the size of banks' net open positions. Over the weekend, most silver imports were restricted - days after the government had lifted import tariffs ‌on both silver and gold. "In the near term, ⁠growing balance of payments pressures will have to be absorbed across multiple instruments: rupee depreciation, FX intervention, incentivising capital flows and compressing the current account," economists at J.P. Morgan said in a note. Traders ⁠expect the rupee to trade with a depreciation bias this week with central bank interventions expected to be key for limiting sharp swings. "In case the central bank steps back from the market, it (USD/INR) could very quickly rise past 97-97.50," a trader at a state-run bank said. BONDS FALTER India's ​10-year benchmark ​bond ended at 7.0644% on Friday, up 8 basis points over ​the week, a third climb in four weeks. Traders expect ‌the note to move in a 7.00% to 7.14% range this week, with the focus being on oil prices, the rupee and U.S. Treasury yields. Bonds have been under pressure from a relentless rise in oil prices and U.S. yields, while a depreciating rupee also weighed. Higher oil prices and a depreciating currency have resulted in deterioration of current account, balance of payments and fiscal deficit, said Gurvinder Singh Wasan, senior fund manager at Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund. The Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles about a fifth of ‌global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, has effectively remained shut. Elevated oil ​prices are detrimental for India, which imports nearly 90% of its crude ​requirements, as they impact inflation, widen the current account deficit ​and complicate the government's budget calculations. "Given escalating geopolitical risks, we expect the 10-year bond yield to touch ‌7.25% in fiscal first half in anticipation of 50 ​basis points rate hike in ​second half," said Arun Srinivasan, chief of fixed income at ICICI Prudential Life Insurance. KEY FACTORS: India \*\* May HSBC manufacturing, services, and composite Flash PMI - May 21, Thursday (10:30 a.m. IST) U.S. \*\* April housing starts - May 21, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) \*\* Initial weekly ​jobless claims for the week to May 16 - ‌May 21, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) \*\* May Philly Fed Index - May 21, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) \*\* May S&P Global manufacturing, ​services, and composite Flash PMI - May 21, Thursday (7:15 p.m. IST) \*\* May U-Mich sentiment final - May 22, Friday (7:30 p.m. ​IST) (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips) ### Related Stocks - [IMVP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IMVP.US.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/INDA.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [HSBC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSBC.US.md) - [00005.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00005.HK.md) - [SPGI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPGI.US.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-J.US.md) - [DTIW.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DTIW.SG.md) - [HSBA.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSBA.UK.md) ## Related News & Research - [ASIA RICE-India's export rates stagnant as market faces slow demand](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286490582.md) - [IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPEAKS ABOUT CONTINUING MESSAGE EXCHANGES WITH THE U.S. REGARDING IRAN'S 14-POINT PROPOSAL.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287099398.md) - [TRUMP SAYS MORE FIGHTING TO COME UNLESS IRAN GETS SMART](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287097488.md) - [Stocks Mixed as Crude Oil Prices and Bond Yields Fall](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286785122.md) - [Rising Bond Yields Weigh on Stocks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286939009.md)