--- title: "NVIDIA Earnings Night on Wednesday: The Decisive Battle for the Fate of the AI Bull Market Is Here!" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286730472.md" description: "Goldman Sachs flashes a \"yellow light\" warning: the semiconductor sector is currently at its most technically overbought level since 2000, with the rare phenomenon of stock prices and volatility rising in tandem. Market expectations for NVIDIA's July guidance and computing power demand are extremely high, with extreme bullish bets coexisting with tail-risk hedges in the options market. As this year's rally in U.S. stocks has been highly concentrated in a few AI Majority Stake stocks, underlying breadth concerns have significantly amplified the two-way risks surrounding NVIDIA's earnings report" datetime: "2026-05-18T07:28:36.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286730472.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286730472.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286730472.md) --- # NVIDIA Earnings Night on Wednesday: The Decisive Battle for the Fate of the AI Bull Market Is Here! NVIDIA is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings after the market close on Wednesday, May 20 (Eastern Time), marking a critical stress test for the current AI bull market cycle. The semiconductor sector is severely overbought from a technical perspective, option positions are heavily skewed bullish, and the rare signal of "stock prices and implied volatility rising simultaneously" has significantly amplified the two-way risks of this earnings window compared to the past. Peter Callahan, Goldman Sachs' Chief TMT Expert, released a briefing titled "Yellow Light" on Monday, pointing out that the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) recorded their first weekly decline of the quarter last week; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to approximately 4.60%, marking its largest single-week increase in over a year; oil prices rebounded to around $109 per barrel; and the VIX rose in tandem. He pointed out that **the core contradiction currently facing the AI and semiconductor themes is: fundamentals remain strong, while technical pressures continue to accumulate.** Options analysis firm SpotGamma noted in a recent report that the market is witnessing a rare parallel pattern of "rising stock prices and climbing volatility"—typically, the two should move in opposite directions. This signal indicates that traders are paying a protection premium for significant volatility while chasing the rally. The implied volatility range for NVIDIA's earnings has currently reached 6%, with market attention highly focused on this time node. The earnings results and forward guidance will directly test the validity of the market's predictions regarding the AI computing supercycle. Given NVIDIA's high correlation with the semiconductor sector and the broader technology sector, its earnings performance, whether positive or negative, will trigger widespread ripple effects across the market. ## Technical Indicators Flash Most Extreme Warning Since 1999/2000 The magnitude and speed of this round of semiconductor gains have pushed technical indicators to historically overbought levels. According to Goldman Sachs data, the SOX index has cumulatively risen by about 70% since its late-March low, adding over $5 trillion in market capitalization along the way. Drivers include the phased easing of geopolitical tensions, better-than-expected corporate earnings—for example, AMAT raised its full-year performance guidance by more than expected, and CSCO product orders achieved a 35% year-over-year growth—as well as increased investor confidence in AI computing demand; earnings expectations for the semiconductor industry have been revised upward by more than 25% year-to-date. However, Peter Callahan specifically pointed out that **the SOX index is currently about 60% above its 200-day moving average, a deviation magnitude not seen since the peak of the internet bubble in 1999/2000.** He also noted that Goldman Sachs' high-momentum factor portfolio has experienced single-day fluctuations of ±5% or more on 12 trading days this year, accounting for nearly 15% of the year's trading days; the rapid expansion of leveraged ETFs and option products has further amplified this two-way elasticity. "It is worth keeping these tactical dynamics in mind before this week's earnings season (NVIDIA on May 20) ends and we enter summer trading," Callahan wrote. Goldman Sachs' trading desk maintains a medium-term constructive stance on the AI and semiconductor themes, but tactically advises investors to remain cautious regarding technical challenges. ## NVIDIA Earnings: Forward Guidance May Be More Critical Than Current Quarter Results The market remains optimistic about NVIDIA's fundamental prospects, but recent stock price movements have already priced in some of these expectations to a certain extent. According to Goldman Sachs' NVIDIA earnings preview report, analysts generally expect NVIDIA's revenue for the current quarter to exceed market forecasts by about $2 billion—the company's historical beat range is typically between 2% and 3%. **The market is more focused on the forward guidance for the next quarter,** with current consensus analyst expectations at approximately $86 billion, representing a quarter-over-quarter increase of about 9%. Other areas of focus include: whether there is further upside potential for NVIDIA's cumulative data center revenue guidance of about $1 trillion, and the narrative of accelerating Agentic AI inference demand—especially its pure CPU rack products expected to begin shipping in the second half of 2026. From recent price trends, NVIDIA has risen for seven consecutive trading days, with a range gain of 20%, marking its longest consecutive winning streak in nearly two years; it has added approximately $1.7 trillion in market capitalization since the late-March low. However, Goldman Sachs data also shows that in four out of the five previous trading days (T+1) following NVIDIA's earnings announcements, the stock fell. Since May 2022, significant single-day rallies triggered by earnings reports have effectively never occurred. ## Options Market: Extreme Bullish Bets and Tail Hedges Positioned Simultaneously The structure of option positions presents a set of internally contradictory signals. According to SpotGamma data, the overall positioning direction remains extremely bullish, with traders continuously rolling NVIDIA call options to higher strike prices. **The call skew remains at the high end of its 90-day historical range, while demand for downside protection is very limited.** According to data cited by 22V Research, the notional turnover of S&P 500 call options hit a record high of $2.6 trillion last Friday, with call options accounting for as much as 60% of total option volume; the RSI of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also rose to its highest level since March 2000. At the same time, hedging layouts against downside risks are quietly unfolding. SpotGamma pointed out that large put option structures and buying activities related to the S&P 500 (SPY), semiconductor ETFs (SMH), and DRAM-related assets have increased significantly, concentrated in deep out-of-the-money strike price ranges, indicating their function is closer to tail-risk hedging rather than purely directional bets. "Market participants are not bearish on NVIDIA, but preparations for downside scenarios are not negligible," SpotGamma wrote in its report. "Any directional shift will almost certainly rapidly affect the broader market." SpotGamma further noted that NVIDIA has cumulatively risen by more than 35% since its March low. The current scale of call option positions means that if the earnings report disappoints the market or triggers massive profit-taking, it could trigger a significant directional reversal. ## Market Breadth Concerns: Rally Supported by Few Stocks Beneath the strong performance of semiconductors and large-cap technology stocks, the lack of broad participation in the U.S. stock market is forming a structural concern. Peter Callahan pointed out in his report that although the S&P 500 has risen by about 8% year-to-date, only about 52% of its constituent stocks have recorded positive returns. Areas that have significantly lagged this year cover multiple sectors including residential real estate, medical devices, engineering construction with no government business exposure, federal IT services, software and services, independent power producers, restaurant chains, commercial real estate brokerage, and insurance brokerage. Callahan admitted that when examining the charts of these sectors, he questions whether the current market performance reflects overall "health," or is merely a "source of funds" effect where investors are forced to concentrate capital in a few large-cap AI stocks. The Oppenheimer equity derivatives team also pointed out that in the past month, only about one-fifth of S&P 500 constituents have outperformed the index, the dispersion index has risen to its highest level in over a year, while implied correlation is near its year-to-date lows. The latest data from Goldman Sachs' Prime Brokerage (PB) division also shows that the technology sector has recently seen significant "risk withdrawal" moves. ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [SOXX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXX.US.md) - [NVD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.US.md) - [NVDU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDU.US.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [SOXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXL.US.md) - [SMH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMH.US.md) - [XSD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XSD.US.md) - [NVDS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDS.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [.NDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [.VIX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.VIX.US.md) - [AMAT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMAT.US.md) - [CSCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CSCO.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [OPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OPY.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/W4VR.SG.md) ## Related News & Research - [Nvidia earnings on May 20 could sway AI market sentiment](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286642553.md) - [Nvidia's $78 billion earnings test could reveal the real AI demand story](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286447895.md) - [Joseph P. Lucia & Associates LLC Has $10.21 Million Holdings in NVIDIA Corporation $NVDA](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286531492.md) - [Nvidia CEO's foundation buys $108 million of AI computing from CoreWeave, donates it to researchers](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286331249.md) - [$100 Invested In GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286320411.md)