--- title: "Crypto Traders Nailed April's $110 Oil Surge Prediction: Here's The Price They Expect It To Hit In May After Trump's Latest Iran Warning" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286736751.md" description: "Cryptocurrency bettors are increasingly wagering on crude oil prices, predicting a 63% chance that WTI will exceed $110 per barrel in May, following President Trump's warnings to Iran. The odds for WTI surpassing $115 rose to 42%. A total of $18.81 million has been bet on this outcome, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions and recent military actions affecting global oil supplies." datetime: "2026-05-18T07:52:09.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286736751.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286736751.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286736751.md) --- # Crypto Traders Nailed April's $110 Oil Surge Prediction: Here's The Price They Expect It To Hit In May After Trump's Latest Iran Warning Cryptocurrency bettors are aggressively betting on crude oil prices amid President **Donald Trump’s** latest escalation in war rhetoric. ## Which Way Is WTI Heading? **Polymarket**, a **Polygon** (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the **USDC** (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin, has an active contract, namely, “What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?” Bettors currently assign a 63% chance that West Texas Intermediate crude will top $110 per barrel this month, up from 59% the day before. Similarly, the odds that WTI surpasses $115 per barrel surged from 33% to 42% over the last 24 hours. The odds of oil exceeding $120 per barrel remained relatively modest at 26%. Interestingly, Polymarket traders accurately predicted that WTI would exceed $110 in April. A whopping $18.81 million has been bet on the outcome, making it one of the most popular contracts on Polymarket. **Read Also: IEA Warns Global Oil Inventories Are Falling At 'Record Pace' Amid Strait Of Hormuz Crisis** ## War Rhetoric Intensifies The spike in odds reflected heightened geopolitical tensions as Trump warned Iran that the “clock is ticking,” urging them to act swiftly or else “there won't be anything left of them.”   A senior Iranian military spokesperson, **Abolfazl Shekarchi**, warned that if Trump follows through on his threats, the U.S. would face unexpected and intensified consequences. Global oil prices have been under pressure ever since the U.S. and Israel initiated a joint military operation against Iran. In response, Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, which severely tightened global oil supplies. ## Something Fishy With Oil Bets? Notably, oil futures and prediction markets themselves have sparked scrutiny due to unusual trading. In March, traders reportedly wagered more than $500 million in the oil market just minutes before a Truth Social post from Trump referencing ‘productive’ discussions with Iran. **Price Action**: As of this writing, WTI traded up 1.83% at at $107.39 per barrel. Shares of **United States Oil Fund** (NYSE:USO), which tracks WTI, closed 3.66% higher at $148.23 on Friday. The stock has plunged 80% in value since the war began. **Read Also: Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down On May 18? Here's How Polymarket Traders Lean As UAE Nuclear Plant Strike Sends Oil Past $110** _Photo courtesy: Shutterstock_ ### Related Stocks - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OXY.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XES.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [USL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USL.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXC.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VDE.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) - [DBO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [OILK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OILK.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [ROI-ENERGY WATCH: Alarms and clocks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286796437.md) - [Citi expects oil to rally to $120/bbl on Hormuz risks, warns it could hit $150/bbl](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286959151.md) - [Capital Economics sees oil at $150 per barrel through 2027 in an extreme case](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286549728.md) - [Inflation surges as nearly the entire country hates Trump’s economy](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286117997.md) - [Oil rises more than 1% after drone attack on UAE nuclear power plant](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286683769.md)