--- title: "\"NACHO Trade\" Gains Momentum! Following Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Also Expects Oil Prices to Remain at $90 Highs This Year" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286832973.md" description: "The stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have successively set their year-end Brent crude price targets at $90. The head of research at Bank of America further warned of a daily supply gap as high as 15 million barrels. June has been identified by multiple institutions as the \"tipping point\": if the blockade continues, oil prices could surge past $130, pushing the average U.S. gasoline price close to the $5 demand destruction red line, coinciding precisely with the peak summer driving season" datetime: "2026-05-19T00:40:58.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286832973.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286832973.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286832973.md) --- # "NACHO Trade" Gains Momentum! Following Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Also Expects Oil Prices to Remain at $90 Highs This Year Following Goldman Sachs' upward revision of its year-end oil price forecast a few weeks ago, Francisco Blanch, Head of Commodities and Derivatives Research at Bank of America, has joined the camp, expecting Brent crude to remain around $90 this year. As the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz remains in a prolonged stalemate, the trading strategy betting on "Never Again Can Hormuz Open" (NACHO) is gaining significant traction on Wall Street. In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, Blanch warned that **the global oil market is currently facing a "quite substantial supply gap," with a daily shortfall of 14 to 15 million barrels, equivalent to a demand gap of 14% to 15%.** He stated that only by filling this gap could oil prices fall back to the $60–$70 per barrel range. On Monday afternoon, Brent crude futures briefly rose above $112. Blanch's latest forecast is based on the core assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked. He also issued a sterner warning: if the double blockade scenario persists, oil prices could gradually climb to $120–$130 per barrel between late June and early July. This outlook is sparking widespread concern in the market regarding fuel supplies during the U.S. summer driving season. ## Wall Street Consensus Forms: $90 Becomes the Benchmark Year-End Forecast Goldman Sachs analysts were the first to raise their Q4 oil price forecasts in late April, adjusting the Brent crude target to $90 and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) target to $83, nearly $30 higher than their pre-Hormuz shock predictions. Bank of America's follow-up further solidifies this price expectation as a consensus among major institutions. The logic behind the two institutions' forecasts is highly consistent: the Strait of Hormuz crisis is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, and global crude oil supply will continue to be under pressure. Blanch pointed out that restoring tanker traffic is the optimal outcome, but currently, the Trump team shows no willingness to make any concessions to Tehran, and the stalemate has lasted for several weeks. ## Critical Juncture Approaches: Multiple Parties Warn June Could Be the "Tipping Point" Multiple institutions and industry insiders view June as a critical time window for market direction. Frederic Lasserre, Head of Research at Gunvor, one of the world's largest oil traders, warned last week that "**the tipping point is clearly June, when the situation must see a breakthrough.**" JPMorgan analysts recently also issued a warning that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for another four weeks, the world will face a catastrophic cliff-like shortage of crude oil. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc characterized a long-term blockade of Hormuz as a "new warning sign," believing it could severely impact global trade. Helima Croft, Head of Commodities at RBC Capital Markets and a former CIA official, recently told clients that she is highly skeptical about a full reopening or a return of tanker flows to February 27 levels by June, implying that the likelihood of a reversal in the situation in the short term is extremely low. ## Consumer Side Under Pressure: U.S. Gasoline Prices Approach Demand Destruction Threshold Tightness on the supply side has begun to transmit to end consumers. According to the latest data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average price for regular unleaded gasoline in the U.S. has reached $4.55 per gallon. Analysts point out that if the Hormuz crisis is not resolved in the near future, further rises in oil prices will push gasoline prices close to the $5 per gallon demand destruction threshold, a timing that heavily overlaps with the Memorial Day driving peak season in the U.S. Blanch specifically highlighted that the U.S. might face fuel "supply tightness" this summer. Given the current scale of the supply-demand gap, any further deterioration in the geopolitical situation could accelerate the breakthrough of oil prices into higher ranges. ### Related Stocks - [002828.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002828.CN.md) - [GS-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-D.US.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [GS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-A.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXC.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VDE.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XES.US.md) - [BAC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [AMKBY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMKBY.US.md) - [RY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RY.US.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/W4VR.SG.md) - [BAC-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-Q.US.md) - [BML-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-L.US.md) - [BAC-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-L.US.md) - [BAC-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-K.US.md) - [BML-H.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-H.US.md) - [BAC-N.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-N.US.md) - [BAC-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-E.US.md) - [MER-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MER-K.US.md) - [BAC-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-O.US.md) - [BML-G.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-G.US.md) - [BAC-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-M.US.md) - [BAC-B.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-B.US.md) - [BML-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-J.US.md) - [BAC-S.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-S.US.md) - [BAC-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-P.US.md) - [8648.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8648.JP.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-J.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Capital Economics sees oil at $150 per barrel through 2027 in an extreme case](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286549728.md) - [Oil rises more than 1% after drone attack on UAE nuclear power plant](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286683769.md) - [ROI-ENERGY WATCH: Alarms and clocks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286796437.md) - [Allworth Financial LP Purchases 1,112 Shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $GS](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286637223.md) - [Vibra Energia SA (VBBR3) Receives a Buy from Goldman Sachs](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286222007.md)