--- title: "JPMorgan Chase: The Gold Bull Market Is Not Over! Year-End Target Lowered to $6,000, but the Silver Myth Is Crumbling" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286839852.md" description: "JPMorgan Chase believes the upward trend in gold is in a \"pause rather than a reversal.\" If the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June, gold prices are expected to challenge the $4,900–$5,100 range, with a year-end target of $6,000. Meanwhile, the logic for silver outperforming gold has largely collapsed due to the end of a five-year deficit cycle and a potential 30% sharp drop in solar demand for silver. The gold-to-silver ratio is projected to rebound to 75:1" datetime: "2026-05-19T01:48:01.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286839852.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286839852.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286839852.md) --- # JPMorgan Chase: The Gold Bull Market Is Not Over! Year-End Target Lowered to $6,000, but the Silver Myth Is Crumbling Gold is still waiting for a signal, while silver’s good days may truly be over. According to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, on May 17, JPMorgan Chase released its latest precious metals research report, authored by Gregory C. Shearer of the commodities research team. Shearer offered starkly different outlooks for gold and silver: **gold is in a "pause, not a reversal," while silver faces substantial deterioration in fundamentals.** ## Gold: Stuck Between Two Moving Averages, Investor Interest Hits Rock Bottom Shearer bluntly stated that they had hardly issued any reports on gold in recent weeks for a simple reason—"there was really nothing to say." **Gold is currently trapped in a technical "no man's land": above lies the 50-day moving average at approximately $4,730/oz, and below lies the 200-day moving average at around $4,340/oz, with prices consolidating sideways within this range.** Meanwhile, market sentiment has hit rock bottom. Open interest and trading volume in COMEX Gold Futures remain sluggish, net long positions by funds are stagnating at low levels, and ETF inflows have nearly come to a standstill. Shearer pointed out that **investors do not necessarily disagree with the long-term logic for gold, but their "interest lies elsewhere"—uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz situation, energy prices, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's response have left them with almost no confidence in gold's short-term direction.** Despite a notable correction in March driven by investor deleveraging, Shearer maintains that **the structural bull market logic for gold remains intact.** Shearer listed several long-term themes supporting gold: **erosion of currency purchasing power (the "currency debasement" trade), risks from the US fiscal deficit, the geopolitical landscape evolving toward bipolarity, and concerns over the unpredictability of US policy.** These themes have not disappeared; they have merely been "shelved"—awaiting a clearer resolution direction for the Iran conflict. ## Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Is Key: Gold Prices Expected to Challenge $4,900–$5,100 The bank's oil market analysts believe that accelerated depletion of oil inventories will ultimately force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the base case scenario being a reopening in June. Analysts directly transmit this judgment to gold **: once the strait reopens, tail risks for energy prices and inflation will decline, and the recent strength of the US dollar and real yields on US Treasuries will begin to fade.** Currently, the market has priced in a probability of over 60% for Fed rate hikes within the year, while the bank's economics team bases its forecast on the Fed holding rates steady throughout 2026. Once market expectations align with the bank's view, the US dollar will reverse, prompting a rebound in gold that could challenge the key technical resistance level of $4,900–$5,100/oz. Analysts believe that investors who previously reduced positions will then reallocate to gold, driving an accelerated rise in gold prices in the second half of the year. ## Year-End Target of $6,000: Forecast Lowered, but Direction Unchanged Due to a significant slowdown in demand momentum in the first half of the year, the bank has lowered its full-year gold price forecast for 2026. Specific figures are as follows: - Average price forecast for Q2 2026: $4,800/oz - Q3: $5,300/oz - Q4: $6,000/oz - Full-year average price for 2026: $5,243/oz The bank expects quarterly demand for gold from central banks and investors in 2026 to average approximately 620 tonnes (750 tonnes in 2025), but with a clear divergence in pace: averaging about 480 tonnes in the first half of the year, accelerating to an average of 755 tonnes in the second half. **Central Bank Gold Purchases:** Analysts have lowered their forecast for net central bank gold purchases in 2026 from 800 tonnes to 640 tonnes. Q1 data showed that Turkey sold 60 tonnes in March alone, resulting in global central banks reporting net purchases of only 16 tonnes, far below the 132 tonnes recorded in Q4 2025. However, total estimates from the World Gold Council and Metals Focus (including unreported purchases) still reached 244 tonnes, higher than the previous quarter's 208 tonnes, indicating a significant increase in unreported hidden purchases. Notably, China's net gold imports in Q1 reached 317 tonnes, nearly tripling quarter-on-quarter; the People's Bank of China's reported gold purchases also accelerated from about 1 tonne per month previously to 5 tonnes in March and 8 tonnes in April. **ETF Fund Flows:** Analysts have lowered their forecast for ETF inflows in 2026 from 580 tonnes to approximately 400 tonnes (about +10%). Despite several weeks of net outflows in March, global gold ETF holdings have increased by 108 tonnes (+3%) year-to-date, demonstrating strong resilience against a backdrop of rising 10-year US Treasury real yields by about 40 basis points. **Bar and Coin Demand:** Forecasted at approximately 1,540 tonnes, a year-on-year increase of about 10% (previous forecast was approximately 1,390 tonnes). Global bar and coin demand in Q1 reached 474 tonnes, up 42% year-on-year, marking the second-highest quarterly record in history, with China contributing the majority of the incremental demand (partly driven by adjustments to VAT rules). However, India raised its gold import tariff by 9 percentage points to 15% last week, which will continue to suppress demand in India. ## Biggest Risk: The Fed Actually Starts Raising Rates The bank also clearly identified the biggest downside risk: if US employment remains strong and inflation continues to rise, leading the Fed to actually initiate a rate-hiking cycle, investor demand for gold will suffer a substantial blow. Western ETFs may experience sustained net outflows, compounded by weakened central bank buying, putting continuous pressure on gold prices. Analysts believe the probability of this scenario occurring in 2026 remains low, but it is not impossible. ## Silver: Five-Year Deficit Ends, Logic for "Outperforming Gold" Has Collapsed The bank's narrative on silver is quite direct. Over the past year, silver significantly outperformed gold, primarily supported by extreme tightness in the physical market—accumulated deficits over many years, combined with large amounts of silver flowing into US COMEX warehouses in 2025, led to tightening liquidity in the London spot market and a sharp decline in the gold-to-silver ratio. But this logic has now largely become ineffective. Currently, COMEX silver inventories have returned to 2024 levels, silver ETF holdings have fallen from their highs, and liquidity in the London spot market is ample. Even though China's silver imports jumped to 836 tonnes in March (about three times the monthly average of the previous 12 months), it did not cause noticeable tightness. ## **Solar Demand: A Key Variable Is Reversing** Analysts pointed out that the surge in China's silver imports in March was likely due to concentrated stocking by photovoltaic (PV) companies before the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. After the policy took effect, China's PV industry entered a destocking phase, with Metals Focus reports showing a significant weakening in China's industrial silver demand starting in April. More importantly, this breathing space allowed Chinese PV companies to accelerate the promotion of "silver-saving" technologies—including wider adoption of heterojunction (HJT) solar modules using silver-plated copper powder, and the switch from multi-busbar (MBB) to zero-busbar (0BB) modules. The bank expects solar demand for silver to drop by about 30% this year, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 60 million ounces. The result: after five consecutive years of deficits, the silver market will shift to supply-demand balance this year, and may even see a slight surplus next year. ## **Gold-to-Silver Ratio to Rebound to 75:1** The bank believes that as the physical market loosens, maintaining silver's significant outperformance relative to gold will rely entirely on investor demand to "carry the load alone," making it much more difficult. Analysts expect the gold-to-silver ratio to gradually rebound, averaging around 75:1 by the end of next year. **However, silver is not being completely abandoned. Against the backdrop of the bank's expectation that gold will restart its upward trend in the second half of 2026, the forecast for silver prices still reaches an average of $90/oz in Q4.** ``` The above exciting content comes from [Zhuifeng Trading Desk](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uua05g5qk-N2J7h91pyqxQ). For more detailed interpretations, including real-time analysis and frontline research, please join [**Zhuifeng Trading Desk ▪ Annual Membership**](https://wallstreetcn.com/shop/item/1000309) ``` ### Related Stocks - [AEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AEM.US.md) - [600489.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600489.CN.md) - [600547.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600547.CN.md) - [GOLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.US.md) - [601899.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601899.CN.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [NEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NEM.US.md) - [KGC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KGC.US.md) - [02824.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02824.HK.md) - [GOAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOAU.US.md) - [SGDJ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGDJ.US.md) - [GOEX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOEX.US.md) - [GBUG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GBUG.US.md) - [RING.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RING.US.md) - [159562.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159562.CN.md) - [JPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPX.US.md) - [UGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [518850.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/518850.CN.md) - [DBP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBP.US.md) - [GDXU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXU.US.md) - [SGDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGDM.US.md) - [09824.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09824.HK.md) - [82824.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/82824.HK.md) - [JNUG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JNUG.US.md) - [SGOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [NUGT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NUGT.US.md) - [GDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDX.US.md) - [GDXJ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXJ.US.md) - [GLDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDM.US.md) - [GDXY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXY.US.md) - [GDXW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXW.US.md) - [02840.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02840.HK.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-J.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [JPMorganChase Declares Common Stock Dividend | JPM Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286815509.md) - [JPMorgan lowers 2026 gold forecast, still sees rally towards $6,000 on renewed demand](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286715908.md) - [$1000 Invested In SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286819467.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold slips to 1-1/2-month low as Middle East tensions lift oil, cloud rate outlook](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286695654.md) - [J. 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