--- title: "TIANQI LITHIUM CEO: Electric Ships and Trucks to Drive Lithium Demand Beyond Current Forecasts" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286870873.md" description: "Xia Juncheng, CEO of TIANQI LITHIUM, stated that the rapid development of electric ships and trucks will push lithium demand beyond existing forecasts. He expects global lithium demand to rise from 1.1 million tons to between 3.6 million and 6.3 million tons over the next decade. Despite significant growth in lithium demand amid current geopolitical tensions, resource acquisition faces challenges, exacerbated by restrictions on mining imposed by many countries" datetime: "2026-05-19T07:24:25.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286870873.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286870873.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286870873.md) --- # TIANQI LITHIUM CEO: Electric Ships and Trucks to Drive Lithium Demand Beyond Current Forecasts As the global scramble for critical minerals intensifies, an executive from one of China’s largest lithium producers has warned that market forecasts for lithium demand are generally too conservative. According to a report by the Financial Times on Tuesday, Xia Juncheng, CEO of TIANQI LITHIUM, stated in an interview that even the most optimistic lithium demand forecasts underestimate the speed at which emerging battery-driven industries are rising. **He pointed out that the rapid expansion of electric trucks, mining equipment, and ships has not been fully incorporated into most forecasting models, “which will represent a huge incremental increase.”** This assessment has direct implications for investors in the lithium market. Data from the International Energy Agency shows that the annual growth rate of lithium demand in this decade is approximately 30%, far higher than the roughly 10% level seen in the 2010s. Forecasts from institutions such as Wood Mackenzie, Project Blue, Fastmarkets, and Mysteel indicate that global annual lithium demand will jump from 1.1 million tons last year to a range of 3.6 million to 6.3 million tons over the next decade. Wood Mackenzie further predicts that annual demand could exceed 13 million tons by 2050. ## Emerging Application Scenarios Become Blind Spots in Demand Forecasts Xia Juncheng believes that most conservative forecasts are based solely on the growth in electric vehicle sales and have not fully accounted for demand from emerging sectors such as energy storage, AI data centers, humanoid robots, and drones. **He particularly emphasized that the electrification of electric trucks, mining equipment, and ships is accelerating. The substantial battery demand from these sectors will constitute a significant incremental increase beyond current forecasts.** Meanwhile, he noted that although lithium demand had already shown strong growth prior to the current geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices have further accelerated the transition to electrification—he himself is considering switching his personal vehicle to a BYD electric car. ## Resource Acquisition Hindered Xia Juncheng pointed out that many countries have “closed the door” on mining just as they realize lithium’s core role in the global transition to electric transportation. This judgment reflects the multiple challenges TIANQI LITHIUM faces in its global resource layout. In Australia, TIANQI LITHIUM jointly holds stakes in the Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant and Greenbushes, one of the world’s largest hard-rock lithium mines, with local miner IGO. However, the Kwinana refinery continues to incur losses; IGO has fully impaired its stake and called for its closure, highlighting clear disagreements between the parties. The Greenbushes project is also under pressure after IGO lowered its production guidance in April this year citing “systemic issues.” The Australian government’s tightening of foreign ownership regulations for critical minerals has significantly reduced the likelihood of TIANQI LITHIUM directly holding mine assets. Xia Juncheng stated that while the company is willing to provide financial support to Australian lithium miners to secure supply, sole ownership of mines has become difficult to achieve. ## Layout in Solid-State Batteries to Smooth Profit Cycle Volatility Faced with numerous constraints on the resource side, Xia Juncheng stated that TIANQI LITHIUM is increasing its investment in new battery chemical technologies, as well as battery material recycling and waste processing. One key focus is solid-state batteries—a technology route that eliminates the liquid electrolytes used in traditional lithium batteries. TIANQI LITHIUM holds nearly a 10% stake in Shanghai Aerospace Power Technology and acquired a 2.9% share in WeLion New Energy, a leading startup in the solid-state battery field, in 2018. It also established a joint venture with WeLion in Shenzhen, holding a 58.5% stake. These strategic moves are expected to help TIANQI LITHIUM smooth out profit fluctuations highly correlated with lithium price cycles. In 2022, as lithium carbonate prices hit historical highs, the company’s net profit soared to approximately RMB 24 billion. Subsequently, lithium prices fell by more than 80%, resulting in a loss of nearly RMB 8 billion in 2024. As market optimism regarding AI-driven lithium demand rebounds, TIANQI LITHIUM’s net profit rebounded to RMB 1.9 billion in the first quarter of this year. Xia Juncheng also spoke on the issue of pricing mechanisms in the lithium market. He pointed out that the widening gap between futures and spot prices for lithium is squeezing the survival space of mid-stream enterprises—these companies are forced to purchase raw materials at high prices but sell products to major customers such as CATL and BYD at lower prices. **He called for the implementation of more flexible pricing mechanisms,** including linking benchmark prices to futures and introducing indexed pricing, believing that this would help stabilize supply and improve profit distribution across the industry chain. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market involves risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. 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