--- title: "FOMO Sentiment Peaks! Wall Street Veteran: SpaceX IPO Scene Only Seen at the Peak of Bubbles" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286875485.md" description: "SpaceX is seeking a listing with a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, implying a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 100x. Its valuation logic has overflowed traditional financial frameworks, leading analysts to bet on the \"option value\" of concepts such as Mars colonies. A Wall Street veteran bluntly stated, \"This is a signal of a bubble peak,\" while FOMO sentiment is driving analysts to collectively abandon rationality—the fear of missing out on the next Tesla may be writing a key historical coordinate" datetime: "2026-05-19T08:06:09.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286875485.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286875485.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286875485.md) --- # FOMO Sentiment Peaks! Wall Street Veteran: SpaceX IPO Scene Only Seen at the Peak of Bubbles When the "fear of missing out" overwhelms rational valuation, the largest IPO in history is testing the boundaries of the entire market. SpaceX is seeking a listing with a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, equivalent to roughly 100 times its revenue. This figure has forced some analysts to start from scratch beyond traditional valuation frameworks, turning instead to bet on the "option value" of Musk making space data centers, lunar bases, and even Mars colonies a reality. **And what drives this enthusiasm is less financial logic than a more primal market sentiment—the fear of missing out on the next Tesla.** Michael O'Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at Jonestrading Institutional Services, who has navigated Wall Street for over 30 years, spoke bluntly: > This is what you see at market tops and in bubbles. Looking back a year from now, I think this will be a key signal. Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at New York University, pointed out that FOMO sentiment is dominating analysts' judgments: > Many analysts have already decided to buy SpaceX because they feel the cost of not participating in this game is unbearable. SpaceX plans to sell up to 30% of its shares to retail investors. If the IPO raises $75 billion, the corresponding retail subscription amount would reach $22.5 billion. According to Vanda data, this figure would exceed twice the total net retail buying of Tesla over the past year, and even surpass the total retail funds flowing into all asset classes in the past month. ## Valuation Logic: From Auto Company to "Option Value" Understanding SpaceX's valuation is inseparable from the path Tesla has taken. Tesla's stock price has cumulatively risen by more than 2,700% over the past decade, leaving countless skeptics empty-handed while establishing a solid credit endorsement for Musk in the capital markets. Today, no sell-side analyst truly values Tesla's car sales business—despite the company planning to invest over $25 billion in capital expenditures this year—**with more than twenty analysts giving buy ratings listing the Cybercab autonomous robotaxi and the humanoid robot Optimus as core valuation pillars.** Alexander Potter, an analyst at Piper Sandler, wrote in a report on May 10 that car sales are merely a "secondary long-term revenue source," stating that "Tesla is not an auto company." His forecasts show that in the coming decades, Robotaxi operations, FSD licensing and subscriptions, and insurance businesses will constitute the main body of revenue, while car sales are expected to peak in about five years. The story of SpaceX is built on similar logic, but it is harder to implement. Beyond government contracts for rocket launches and the Starlink satellite internet service, the $2 trillion valuation implies businesses such as space data centers, lunar bases, and Mars colonies, which are still in the conceptual stage. The theoretical potential market space is "infinite"—at least in the eyes of believers. ## Pricing Perspectives: Sharp Divergence Institutional investors' judgments on SpaceX's value show clear divergence. Ark Investment Management, an existing investor in SpaceX, stated in an article on April 20 that the $1.75 trillion valuation was "based on a credible business development path," pointing out that "Musk's goals are ambitious by any historical standard, and SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to compress timelines." Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, under Baillie Gifford, which holds nearly $4 billion worth of SpaceX equity, marked SpaceX's valuation at $1.25 trillion at the end of the first quarter, with this position accounting for about one-fifth of the fund's total assets. The fund stated it would reevaluate as the IPO process advances. Damodaran gave a reference price of approximately $1 trillion—he would not buy at $2 trillion, but acknowledged that SpaceX's upside potential is indeed considerable. "SpaceX is currently far ahead of its competitors and is in a more favorable position than Tesla is today in terms of realizing option value," he said, while endorsing Musk's achievements: "It must be admitted that he has created two companies that can truly be called technological miracles." ## Skeptics: Paying for Success Not Yet Delivered However, not everyone believes FOMO is a sufficient investment rationale. O'Rourke's skepticism goes straight to the numbers: a $2 trillion valuation against annual revenue of approximately $20 billion implies a price-to-sales ratio of about 100x. **"The price you pay is for success that has not yet been realized," he said. "Even if space data centers become a reality, investors have no basis to judge whether their costs are more efficient than ground-based facilities."** UBS analyst Joseph Spak warned about the physical AI construction costs for Tesla, pointing out that the $25 billion in capital expenditure is just the starting point, and believed that Musk's wording regarding the progress of Robotaxi and Optimus during the April earnings call "tended to be conservative." In O'Rourke's view, the signal truly worth watching is not just SpaceX's valuation itself, but the collective willingness of the market to accept this valuation. "When we look back a year from now, this is likely to be a key historical coordinate." ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [TESL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [TSLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [TSLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [PIPR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PIPR.US.md) - [SMT.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMT.UK.md) - [UBS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UBS.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Steve Westly: SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286776957.md) - [Tesla has a possible fix for chaotic charging lines](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286133106.md) - [SpaceX's $2 Trillion IPO Could Hand Musk Total Control and Lock In a Mars Colony](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286563519.md) - [SpaceX IPO frenzy builds as $2T valuation looms](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286713565.md) - [Legendary investor Ron Baron says Tesla and SpaceX stock buys will continue](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286133978.md)