--- title: "BofA Fund Manager Survey: If US Treasuries Experience Significant Volatility, 30-Year Yield Could Surge Past 6%; \"Second Inflation\" Emerges as Top Tail Risk" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286885150.md" description: "The survey shows that, assuming significant yield volatility over the next 12 months, 62% of respondents expect the 30-year US Treasury yield to rise above 6%, primarily driven by \"second inflation\" triggered by high oil prices and Middle East tensions. The proportion of investors overweighting US stocks surged by a record 37 percentage points to 50%, while only 4% anticipate a Hard Landing" datetime: "2026-05-19T10:08:58.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286885150.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286885150.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286885150.md) --- # BofA Fund Manager Survey: If US Treasuries Experience Significant Volatility, 30-Year Yield Could Surge Past 6%; "Second Inflation" Emerges as Top Tail Risk The May global fund manager monthly survey by Bank of America revealed a record surge in the proportion of investors overweighting US stocks, with more than 60% of respondents betting that the 30-year US Treasury yield will break through 6%. This highlights a market landscape where rising risk appetite coexists with pressure on long-end interest rates. The report indicates that, under the assumption of significant yield volatility in the next 12 months, **62% of respondents expect the 30-year US Treasury yield to rise above 6%, while only 20% believe it will fall below 4%.** The current 30-year US Treasury yield is approximately 5.13% to 5.14%, touching an intraday high of 5.16% on Monday, the highest level since October 2023. The survey was conducted from May 8 to 14, covering 200 respondents who collectively manage assets worth $517 billion. Bank of America released the results on Tuesday. Notably, the April survey did not include questions on expectations for the 30-year yield trajectory; this marks the first time the issue has been addressed. ## Over Half of Respondents Overweight US Stocks **A net 50% of surveyed fund managers stated they were overweight US stocks in May, a sharp 37-percentage-point increase from the net 13% in April, marking the largest single-month gain in the survey's history.** Strong corporate earnings, sustained market optimism regarding large-scale capital expenditures on artificial intelligence by companies, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have jointly pushed global equities close to historical highs. The average cash allocation among respondents also decreased from 4.3% in April to 3.9%. The core drivers supporting this significant increase in stock holdings span three areas: strong performance during the earnings season, continued AI-related spending boosting market sentiment, and the favorable interest rate environment signaled by the Fed's rate cut prospects. The simultaneous decline in cash allocations indicates a clear trend of capital shifting toward risk assets. Regarding macroeconomic judgments, respondents were generally optimistic. Only 4% believed the economy would face a "Hard Landing"—defined as a sudden contraction in economic growth and the job market—while 39% anticipated a "no landing" scenario, meaning economic momentum remains strong without significant slowing. This distribution suggests that recession fears have substantially receded among institutional investors, providing confidence support for aggressive equity allocations. ## More Than 60% Bet on 30-Year Yield Breaking 6% In terms of long-end interest rate expectations, respondents' judgments skewed significantly toward upside risks. 62% believed that if significant yield volatility occurs in the next 12 months, the 30-year US Treasury yield is more likely to break upward through 6% than to move downward; only 20% bet that the yield would fall below 4%. The 30-year US Treasury yield is currently around 5.13%, rising to 5.16% during Monday's trading session, hitting a new high since October 2023. Despite the overall optimistic sentiment, respondents remained highly alert to inflation risks. 40% of respondents listed "second inflation" as the current biggest tail risk, ranking it above all other single risk factors. With international oil prices above $100 per barrel and peace negotiations between the United States and Iran at an impasse, these factors have already impacted global bond markets, corroborating the majority of respondents' predictions for rising long-end interest rates. ## Hormuz Crisis May Last Several Months On the geopolitical front, 66% of respondents expected that the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz would be resolved within the next few months. The situation in this critical global oil transportation chokepoint is closely linked to international oil prices and inflation expectations, making it one of the key macro variables currently being closely tracked by institutional investors. ### Related Stocks - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [BAC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC.US.md) - [BAC-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-Q.US.md) - [BML-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-L.US.md) - [BAC-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-L.US.md) - [BAC-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-K.US.md) - [BML-H.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-H.US.md) - [BAC-N.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-N.US.md) - [BAC-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-E.US.md) - [MER-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MER-K.US.md) - [BAC-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-O.US.md) - [BML-G.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-G.US.md) - [BAC-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-M.US.md) - [BAC-B.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-B.US.md) - [BML-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BML-J.US.md) - [BAC-S.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-S.US.md) - [BAC-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC-P.US.md) - [8648.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8648.JP.md) ## Related News & Research - [The surge in US Treasury yields: Three key drivers](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286739892.md) - [YIELD ON 10-YR U.S. TREASURY NOTES CLIMBS TO 4.679%](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286934938.md) - [US 30-year Treasury yield tops 5% for first time since 2007](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286322610.md) - [US 2-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 4.11%, HIGHEST SINCE FEBRUARY 2025](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286932557.md) - [TREASURIES-Yield on 30-year bond climbs to highest since 2007](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286944589.md)