--- title: "Goldman Sachs NVIDIA Preview: Earnings Likely to Beat, but Market Focuses on Growth Potential Beyond the $1 Trillion Guidance" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286903418.md" description: "Goldman Sachs expects NVIDIA to deliver an \"earnings beat + raised guidance\" in Q1 and has raised its EPS forecasts for the next two years by approximately 12%. However, market focus has shifted from earnings beats to incremental growth potential: whether the $1 trillion data center revenue guidance will be further revised upward, whether Agentic AI can open a new growth curve for CPUs, and the release of demand from non-traditional customers. Goldman Sachs believes that improved profitability among cloud providers, the penetration of agent AI, and increased volume from new customers will be key catalysts for valuation reassessment" datetime: "2026-05-19T11:30:29.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286903418.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286903418.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286903418.md) --- # Goldman Sachs NVIDIA Preview: Earnings Likely to Beat, but Market Focuses on Growth Potential Beyond the $1 Trillion Guidance Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating on NVIDIA, expecting a combination of an "earnings beat + raised guidance" in the first fiscal quarter. However, analysts also point out that simple earnings beats are no longer sufficient to drive the stock to outperform the broader market—investors are truly focused on how much incremental growth potential lies beyond the $1 trillion data center revenue guidance provided at the GTC conference. According to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs recently released a report stating that **the analyst team has raised its average EPS forecast for NVIDIA in CY26/27 by approximately 12%**, which is currently 14% and 34% higher than the market consensus, respectively. Goldman Sachs expects NVIDIA's Q1 revenue to exceed market expectations by about $2 billion and maintains its 12-month target price at $250, implying approximately 20% upside from the current share price of $207.83. Goldman Sachs identifies three key catalysts driving the re-rating of the stock's valuation: **improved profitability of hyperscale cloud providers, accelerated penetration of Agentic AI in the enterprise sector, and increased visibility into the deployment progress of non-traditional customers.** The report notes that NVIDIA's current valuation is significantly discounted compared to its three-year median P/E ratio, suggesting considerable room for valuation repair if these signals are confirmed. ## Earnings Expectations: High Probability of a Beat, but the "Surprise Threshold" Has Been Raised Goldman Sachs stated that supply-side data (TSMC and SK Hynix earnings) and demand-side signals (US hyperscale cloud providers raising 2026 capex and expressing optimism about 2027 trends) both point to a high probability of NVIDIA beating expectations this quarter. However, analysts warned that market expectations are already at a high level, so a simple earnings beat will have limited impact on boosting the stock price. Specifically, Goldman Sachs expects NVIDIA's total revenue for the first fiscal quarter (FY1Q27) to be $80.046 billion, about 2% higher than the market consensus; EPS is expected to be $1.86, 7% higher than market expectations. The revenue forecast for the second fiscal quarter (FY2Q27) is $87.684 billion, 3% higher than market expectations; EPS is expected to be $2.05, 8% higher than market expectations. The data center business remains the core driver, with Goldman Sachs expecting revenue from this segment to reach $74.667 billion in the first fiscal quarter and further rise to $82.134 billion in the second fiscal quarter. Regarding gross margin, Goldman Sachs expects the gross margins (excluding stock-based compensation) for the first and second fiscal quarters to be 74.8% and 74.9%, respectively, slightly below market expectations, reflecting some pressure from rising raw material costs. ## Key Focus 1: Room for Upward Revision of the $1 Trillion Guidance Goldman Sachs believes the most watched topic in this earnings call is whether there is room to upwardly revise the $1 trillion cumulative revenue guidance given at GTC 2026 (covering Blackwell, Blackwell Ultra, and Rubin platforms, spanning 2025 to 2027). Goldman Sachs pointed out that this guidance does not include several potential incremental sources, including: Rubin Ultra launching in 2027, Vera pure CPU racks in 2026 and beyond, and configurations optimized for inference scenarios such as Rubin-CPX and Groq 3 LPX. Analysts expect investors to closely question management on the latest outlook for these product lines, and any positive statements beyond the existing guidance framework could trigger a valuation reassessment. Goldman Sachs has raised its total revenue forecast for NVIDIA in FY2027 to $396.573 billion (previous forecast: $393.632 billion), 9% higher than the market consensus; the forecast for FY2028 has been further raised to $609.449 billion, 26% higher than market expectations; and the forecast for FY2029 is $750.9 billion, 33% higher than market expectations. ## Key Focus 2: Agentic AI Drives New Opportunities for CPU Business Goldman Sachs views the rise of Agentic AI as an important incremental source for NVIDIA's data center CPU business. The report points out that as the demand for CPU computing power from agentic AI workloads rapidly increases, NVIDIA's pure CPU rack products are expected to begin shipping in the second half of 2026. This new category is poised to open a new growth curve independent of GPU accelerators. Analysts stated that the market will closely monitor management's latest judgment on the adoption curve of Agentic AI, as well as the potential impact of CPU rack systems on NVIDIA's overall accelerator market share. Goldman Sachs believes that if management provides a more clear mid-term market size forecast, it will help boost investor confidence in this business line. ## Key Focus 3: Competitive Landscape and Gross Margin Pressure On the competitive front, Goldman Sachs expects management to address the competitive dynamics of customized XPUs (specialized processors). Currently, most hyperscale cloud providers are increasing their reliance on self-developed chips to cover a wider range of workloads. Goldman Sachs expects NVIDIA to emphasize its leading advantage in inference costs, citing the approximately 10x generational cost improvement of the Blackwell platform compared to the previous generation as evidence. Gross margin trends are also a focal point for the market. Goldman Sachs expects that NVIDIA's gross margins will face some pressure as component costs rise and the Rubin platform enters the mass production ramp-up phase in the second half of the year. However, management is expected to reiterate its guidance for full-year 2026 gross margins to remain in the mid-70% range. ## Valuation: Significant Discount, Reassessment Depends on Three Signals From a valuation perspective, Goldman Sachs pointed out that NVIDIA's current forward P/E ratio is significantly discounted compared to its three-year median value of 32x. Furthermore, the premium relative to peer chip design companies such as AVGO, AMD, and MRVL has narrowed considerably compared to historical levels. Goldman Sachs believes that achieving valuation repair requires the verification of three conditions: first, improved profitability metrics of hyperscale cloud providers to support sustained capex growth; second, accelerated penetration of Agentic AI, releasing broader signals of enterprise adoption; and third, greater visibility into the deployment progress of non-traditional buyers such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and sovereign AI customers. Based on a valuation framework assuming a normalized EPS of $8.25 and a 30x P/E ratio for NVIDIA, Goldman Sachs maintains its $250 target price and reiterates its Buy rating. 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