--- title: "Aluminum inventory at a 55-year low + contraction in Indonesian nickel ore supply! The nonferrous metal mining ETF (159690) welcomes catalysts, Citigroup sees aluminum prices reaching $4,000!" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/286986283.md" description: "The non-ferrous metal market is facing a supply crisis, with aluminum inventories dropping to a 55-year low. Citigroup expects aluminum prices to rise to USD 4,000 per ton. Indonesia has suspended mining licenses for over 50 mining companies, leading to a contraction in nickel supply. The China Merchants Nonferrous Metal Mining ETF (159690), due to its concentrated investment in upstream resources, is expected to benefit from rising metal prices, resulting in a dual increase in profits and valuations" datetime: "2026-05-20T01:26:32.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/286986283.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286986283.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286986283.md) --- # Aluminum inventory at a 55-year low + contraction in Indonesian nickel ore supply! The nonferrous metal mining ETF (159690) welcomes catalysts, Citigroup sees aluminum prices reaching $4,000! Recently, the non-ferrous metal sector has welcomed multiple supply-side catalytic signals. In terms of aluminum, according to Citigroup's latest research report, the war between the U.S. and Iran has triggered an unprecedented crisis in the global aluminum market, with turmoil in the Middle East leading to a supply loss of over 3 million tons. With idle capacity nearly at zero and inventories at a 55-year low, the market has been pushed into a state of structural shortage. Citigroup expects that even in the face of weak demand, there will still be a gap of about 2.7 million tons this year. Citigroup believes that aluminum prices are expected to steadily rise to USD 4,000 per ton in the next three months, with an average price likely to maintain at this level in the second half of 2026, and in an optimistic scenario, prices will rise to USD 5,350 per ton in 2027. Regarding nickel, according to reports from SMM and Mysteel, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially suspended the mining licenses (IUP) of over 50 mining companies due to their failure to submit the 2026 work plans and budgets (RKAB) on time, including 34 nickel mining projects. The suspended companies have been given a 90-day grace period to resubmit; if they fail to comply, they will face the risk of permanent license revocation. Additionally, the Weda Bay Industrial Park of Tsingshan Group has reduced production of nickel-iron projects since June due to electricity being redirected to aluminum materials, which is expected to affect about 3,000 metal tons per month. It is understood that the top three weighted varieties in the non-ferrous mining ETF China Merchants (159690), namely copper, gold, and lithium, account for nearly 60%, indicating a high concentration among leading companies. It also carries "leverage attributes," being referred to as the "non-ferrous amplifier": due to concentrated investments in upstream resource leaders, when mining companies have relatively fixed costs, the rise in non-ferrous metal prices results in almost all of the price increase being profit. This creates a "Davis Double Play" market where both profit and valuation increase, with net asset value growth several times that of the commodities themselves ### Related Stocks - [159690.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159690.CN.md) - [C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C.US.md) - [02501.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02501.HK.md) - [C-R.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C-R.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Golden Sky Minerals Consolidates Full Ownership of Rayfield Ground within Rayfield-Gjoll Project | LCKYF Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286937838.md) - [Pioneer Minerals Insider Buyers Net AU$154k Despite 11% Stock Decline](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286657906.md) - [Ares Strategic Mining Announces Board Evolution to Support Nasdaq Transition and Next Phase of Corporate Growth](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286904058.md) - [Universal Digital Inc. Announces Termination of ETF Partnership Agreement | LFGMF Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286616540.md) - [Yukon Metals Launches Digital Marketing Campaign | YMMCF Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286618694.md)