---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise, NVIDIA's Earnings Report Coming After Hours"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/287059836.md"
description: "On May 20th, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose together, with Dow futures up 0.20%, S&P 500 futures up 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.56%. The AI investment frenzy is driving long-term yields higher, with Goldman Sachs predicting that AI capital expenditures will reach $7.6 trillion over the next five years. A Bank of America survey shows that AI-related capital expenditures have become a potential credit risk, with 34% of fund managers believing it could trigger a systemic credit event"
datetime: "2026-05-20T11:59:02.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287059836.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287059836.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287059836.md)
---

# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise, NVIDIA's Earnings Report Coming After Hours

## Pre-Market Market Trends

1.  As of May 20 (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.20%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.56%.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260520/1779277951420688.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.29%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.13%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.54%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.66%.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260520/1779278011895455.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 1.78%, priced at $102.52 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 2.60%, priced at $109.18 per barrel.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260520/1779277985116589.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**The AI frenzy rewrites bond market logic, $7.6 trillion in capital expenditures pushing up long-term yields.** While some are puzzled by the simultaneous occurrence of the AI boom and rising borrowing costs, the two are closely related. Beyond the AI investment frenzy, soaring long-term productivity is pushing up estimates of neutral interest rates. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI capital expenditures will reach $7.6 trillion over the next five years, which could be a larger factor driving bonds and stocks, forcing investment institutions to reassess the long-term impact of AI on the macroeconomy. The Institute of International Finance states that a successful AI cycle should push up neutral interest rates, as higher expected returns and stronger capital formation will elevate expected investment relative to savings, and the market should not expect a return to the extremely low real interest rate environment of the 2010s based on the current AI boom. Barclays' annual research reaches a similar conclusion, stating that rising productivity combined with huge capital expenditure demands points to higher neutral real interest rates, and the long-term bond market may finally be undergoing repricing.

**The AI data center financing frenzy raises market concerns; Bank of America: Tech giants' debt expansion becomes a potential source of credit risk.** A recent survey by Bank of America shows that capital expenditures by AI hyperscale cloud providers have quickly become one of the potential credit risks most concerning global investors. Survey data indicates that among global fund managers surveyed in May, about 34% believe that AI-related capital expenditures are most likely to trigger future systemic credit events, doubling from 17% in April. Although the U.S. private credit market remains the largest source of concern, accounting for 42%, this is significantly lower than last month's 57%. Since early last year, tech companies have raised over $300 billion through the U.S. bond market for AI infrastructure development, and investment banks expect the financing scale to continue to increase significantly in the coming months Market concerns are that technology companies are borrowing at an unprecedented rate to invest in AI development, but there remains significant uncertainty about whether these investments will yield sufficient returns in the future.

**2026 FOMC voter Paulson "leans hawkish": prefers to keep interest rates unchanged; rate cuts depend on sustained progress against inflation.** Anna Paulson, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2026, stated that she prefers to keep interest rates unchanged and believes that rate cuts are only appropriate if there is sustained progress against inflation. Paulson said on Tuesday, "Current monetary policy is mildly restrictive, and this restriction is helping to curb inflationary pressures while the labor market remains stable." "Keeping interest rates unchanged allows us to assess how the economy evolves and the risks to price stability and the labor market."

**U.S. Treasury turmoil shatters rate cut dreams! Market expectations reverse dramatically: the probability of a Fed rate hike this year is as high as 43%.** U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, completely changing the market's expectations for the timing of the Fed's next rate hike. Data from prediction trading platform Kalshi shows that traders believe there is a 63% chance the Fed will raise rates before July 2027, with a 43% chance of a hike this year. Traders on another prediction platform, Polymarket, estimate the probability of a rate hike in 2026 at 35%.

**Samsung union negotiations break down! Full strike on Thursday, global memory chip supply chain sounds "supply cut" alarm.** Samsung Electronics' negotiations with its largest union have broken down, and the world's largest memory chip manufacturer is facing a workers' strike that will affect operations. Union leader Choi Seung-ho stated in Sejong City, where the negotiations took place, that a full strike will occur on Thursday after the company management rejected a mediation proposal accepted by the union. The breakdown in negotiations poses risks to the global technology supply chain, as Samsung is the world's largest chip supplier, with its products widely used in various devices from data center servers and smartphones to electric vehicles. The company also faces production delays and obstacles in the development of next-generation semiconductors.

**As the storm in the bond market sweeps the globe, fixed income giant Pimco delivers a boost! Declares the "repair moment" for the steepest yield curve has arrived.** Pimco, one of the largest fixed income investment giants globally, sees significant investment opportunities in the currently heavily sold 30-year Japanese government bonds, stating that the world's steepest long-term government bond yield curve has reached a repair window. Meanwhile, global bond market traders' concerns about inflation and government spending have pushed these bond yields to record highs. Marc Seidner, Chief Investment Officer of Pimco's non-traditional strategies market, stated that compared to other developed markets, Japan's long-term government bond yield curve has become "too steep," creating attractive investment value in longer-term debt.

## Individual Stock News

**NVIDIA (NVDA.US) Q1 earnings report coming tonight after U.S. stock market closes.** NVIDIA will release its Q1 earnings report for fiscal year 2027 at 5:00 AM Beijing time on May 21 (which is after the U.S. stock market closes on May 20 Eastern Time) This is not only a quarterly report from a chip giant but also seen as a key barometer to test whether the global AI infrastructure investment wave can continue. As Goldman Sachs U.S. equity strategist Ben Snyder stated, NVIDIA has contributed about 20% to the S&P 500 index's increase this year, "investors across almost all asset classes globally are paying attention to this earnings report." Analysts generally expect NVIDIA's revenue for the quarter to be $78.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 79%, with earnings per share reaching $1.77. In the eyes of major investment banks, this figure is even considered conservative.

**Amazon (AMZN.US) AI ASIC reaches a structural turning point: gaining industry favor.** Reports indicate that Amazon's Trainium AI accelerator is beginning to win favor among some AI developers who have traditionally relied on NVIDIA (NVDA.US) products. Daniel Svonava, CEO of Superlinked, stated, "We have always believed that insufficient software support was a barrier. But this has changed in the past few months, and that barrier has been removed." Another developer, Bojan Jakimovski, head of machine learning at Loka, also noted that interest in Trainium has increased in recent months, partly due to the tight supply of NVIDIA GPUs. He added that a client switched their inference workload to Trainium's second-generation chip after tests showed that the cost could be reduced by up to 35% compared to NVIDIA's H100 series chips. However, Jakimovski added that he still recommends training large language models on NVIDIA products.

**Analog Devices (ADI.US) to acquire Empower for approximately $1.5 billion to enhance AI power management product portfolio.** U.S. chip manufacturer Analog Devices announced it will acquire Empower Semiconductor for approximately $1.5 billion in cash to expand its AI-focused power management product portfolio. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026, subject to regulatory approval. Empower Semiconductor, headquartered in Milpitas, California, primarily produces chips for data centers, reportedly offering lower energy consumption to help reduce operating costs. The company stated last September that it had raised over $140 million in a Series D funding round led by Fidelity Management and Research Company.

**Google (GOOGL.US) partners with Samsung and Warby Parker to launch AI audio glasses, expected to be officially released this fall.** Google publicly showcased its first audio smart glasses on Tuesday, attempting to break into the wearable device segment where competitors like Meta have already made waves. At Google's annual I/O developer conference, the company announced collaborations with Samsung and eyewear manufacturers Gentle Monster and Warby Parker to create smart glasses equipped with the Gemini assistant. Google stated that the product will be compatible with both Android and iOS devices and will officially launch later this year **SpaceX frequently makes moves: 30 days after completing the "largest IPO in history," it may acquire AI coding startup Cursor.** According to informed sources, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) plans to advance the acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor 30 days after completing its public listing. Previously, it was reported that SpaceX is expected to officially submit its initial public offering (IPO) application as early as this Wednesday and is set to be listed on NASDAQ on June 12. If everything proceeds as planned, SpaceX is expected to complete the acquisition of Cursor in July. Sources indicate that if the deal ultimately fails to materialize, SpaceX will need to pay Cursor a $10 billion reverse breakup fee.

**Lowe's (LOW.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations but struggles persist, same-store sales guidance falls short, warning of macro headwinds potentially lasting throughout the year.** American home improvement and home decor retailer Lowe's (LOW.US) stated that thanks to increased online sales during the spring and boosted demand from professional contractors, the company's first-quarter earnings exceeded expectations. However, due to challenges in the macro real estate market, the company maintained its full-year performance outlook. The financial report showed that Lowe's Q1 revenue reached $23.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, exceeding expectations by $220 million; adjusted earnings per share were $3.03, better than expected. During the period, the company's same-store sales increased by 0.6%, but this growth was below market expectations. Lowe's reiterated its full-year performance forecast and indicated that the macro real estate market environment is full of challenges.

**Demand growth boosts performance, Analog Devices sees significant profit increase in Q2.** On Wednesday, Analog Devices reported better-than-expected Q2 results, driven by strong demand in the industrial, automotive, and communications markets, and the company expects this trend to continue. Data showed that for the three months ending May 2, the company achieved a net profit of $1.18 billion, or earnings per share of $2.40; in contrast, the net profit for the same period last year was $569.8 million, or earnings per share of $1.14. The adjusted earnings per share were $3.09, while analysts had expected $2.88. Revenue increased from $2.64 billion in the same period last year to $3.62 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $3.51 billion. Looking ahead to Q3, the company expects revenue to be between $3.8 billion and $4 billion, higher than the market's general expectation of $3.61 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $3.30 (with a fluctuation of 15 cents), while analysts expected $2.99.

**Transformation plan shows results, Target (TGT.US) Q1 revenue and profit both exceed expectations.** On Wednesday, major retailer Target reported better-than-expected Q1 results and raised its revenue guidance, indicating that despite the challenging macro environment, its transformation plan is progressing smoothly. Data showed that Target's first-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $1.71, with net sales increasing by 6.7% year-on-year to $25.4 billion, while analysts had previously expected earnings per share of $1.47 and sales of $24.7 billion. The company currently expects full-year net sales to grow by approximately 4%, an increase of two percentage points from its previous forecast

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending May 15.

Beijing time 21:15: Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivers a speech.

Beijing time the next day 02:00: Federal Reserve releases the Minutes of the monetary policy meeting.

## Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: NVIDIA, Intuit (INTU.US)

Thursday pre-market: Walmart (WMT.US), Ralph Lauren (RL.US)

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