--- title: "Nvidia Earnings Impact Tracker: Historical Data Shows Hidden Bull Trap" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/287103344.md" description: "Nvidia is set to report Q1 2027 earnings, with expectations of $78.8 billion in revenue and $1.77 EPS, marking significant growth. Despite a history of beating estimates, recent data shows the stock has reacted negatively post-earnings, with average returns declining. Investors are now focused on whether Nvidia can exceed high expectations, as past performance indicates that simply beating estimates may not suffice for positive stock movement." datetime: "2026-05-20T17:41:08.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287103344.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287103344.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287103344.md) --- # Nvidia Earnings Impact Tracker: Historical Data Shows Hidden Bull Trap **Nvidia Corp.** (NASDAQ:NVDA) reports first-quarter 2027 earnings after the close Wednesday, and the bar has never been higher. According to Benzinga Pro estimates, Wall Street is expecting the world’s most valued company to report $78.8 billion in revenue and $1.77 in adjusted earnings per share for the January-March period — implying roughly 78% revenue growth and a 119% surge in EPS from the same quarter of 2025. If achieved, it would mark the largest quarterly revenue print ever generated by a semiconductor company. On paper, the setup looks straightforward. Nvidia has beaten revenue estimates in each of the last 17 quarters. The company also topped EPS expectations in 15 of those 17 reports. But the historical trading data show something important has changed. The market is no longer rewarding Nvidia simply for beating estimates. ## Nvidia Historical Earnings Scorecard: Perfect On Revenue, Punished Anyway Across the last 17 quarterly reports, Nvidia produced a perfect 100% revenue beat rate and an 88% EPS beat rate. The only two EPS misses came during the 2022 semiconductor downturn, when collapsing gaming demand and the implosion of crypto-mining pressured results. On average, Nvidia exceeded revenue expectations by 5.3% and EPS estimates by 7.8%. Those are extraordinary numbers for a mega-cap company already operating at massive scale. But the stock reaction has become less automatic. Quarter Report Date Reported EPS Reported Rev. EPS Surp. Rev Surp. NVDA Stock Reaction: 1-Day 7-Day 30-Day 4Q FY26 02-25-2026 $1.62 $68.13B +5.3% +2.9% \-5.46% \-9.07% \-5.96% 3Q FY26 11-19-2025 $1.30 $57.01B +3.5% +3.7% \-3.15% \-3.54% +0.86% 2Q FY26 08-27-2025 $1.05 $46.74B +4.1% +1.5% \-0.79% \-7.32% +6.04% 1Q FY26 05-28-2025 $0.81 $44.06B +8.0% +1.9% +3.25% +5.13% +22.34% 4Q FY25 02-26-2025 $0.89 $39.33B +5.3% +3.1% \-8.48% \-14.16% \-12.91% 3Q FY25 11-20-2024 $0.81 $35.08B +8.5% +5.8% +0.53% \-4.98% +2.43% 2Q FY25 08-28-2024 $0.68 $30.04B +5.7% +4.5% \-6.38% \-15.24% +7.32% 1Q FY25 05-22-2024 $0.61 $26.04B +9.7% +6.0% +9.32% +21.12% +35.02% 4Q FY24 02-21-2024 $0.52 $22.10B +11.4% +7.6% +16.40% +21.95% +27.32% 3Q FY24 11-21-2023 $0.40 $18.12B +18.7% +12.5% \-2.46% \-6.37% \-1.70% 2Q FY24 08-23-2023 $0.27 $13.51B +29.4% +21.9% +0.10% +2.96% \-5.15% 1Q FY24 05-24-2023 $0.11 $7.19B +18.9% +10.3% +24.37% +28.27% +38.12% 4Q FY23 02-22-2023 $0.09 $6.05B +9.5% +0.5% +14.02% +15.11% +29.52% 3Q FY23 11-16-2022 $0.06 $5.93B \-17.4% +1.9% \-1.46% \-0.52% \-8.15% 2Q FY23 08-24-2022 $0.05 $6.70B \-1.6% +0.1% +4.01% \-20.76% \-23.76% 1Q FY23 05-25-2022 $0.14 $8.29B +4.9% +2.4% +5.16% +10.67% \-10.74% 4Q FY22 02-16-2022 $0.13 $7.64B +7.9% +2.9% \-7.56% \-8.02% +2.92% _Source: Koyfin, Tradingview_ **Read Also: Forget About Micron: The Hottest US Semiconductor Stock Is Already Up 100% This Month** ## How Did Nvidia Stock React To Past Earnings? Time Frame After Earnings Average Reaction Median Reaction Win Rate 1 Day 2.4% 0.1% 52.9% 1 Week 0.9% \-3.5% 41.2% 30 Days 6.1% 2.4% 58.8% The data spanning Nvidia earnings reports from February 2022 through February 2026 show that beating estimates has not consistently translated into immediate upside for shareholders. The one-day post-earnings reaction averaged a gain of 2.4%, but the median move was essentially flat at just 0.1%. The win rate has been barely above 50%. In other words, Nvidia's earnings releases have historically behaved little better than a coin toss in the immediate aftermath, despite the company consistently crushing consensus estimates. The seven-day window looks even weaker. Nvidia shares delivered a negative median return of 3.5% during the week following earnings. Ten of those 17 earnings reactions turned negative by the end of the first week. The strongest one-week rally came after the May 2023 report, when Nvidia shocked Wall Street with guidance that effectively launched the generative AI capex supercycle. Shares surged 28.3% over the following week. The worst came after the August 2022 report, when the company warned that gaming revenue was collapsing amid the crypto unwind and guided sales roughly 17% below consensus. The stock plunged 20.8% over the next week. the average return recovered to +6.09% and the win rate climbed back to 58.8%. The 30-day data paint a more constructive picture but still far from a clean edge Over the last 17 earnings reports, Nvidia shares gained an average of 6.1% during the month following results, with a win rate approaching 59%. That suggests short-term post-earnings volatility has often been absorbed by longer-term investors willing to stay exposed to the broader AI infrastructure buildout. The best 30-day performance came after the May 2023 report, when Nvidia shares exploded 38.1% as investors began pricing in the first wave of hyperscaler AI spending. The worst came after the August 2022 report, when the stock fell 23.8% amid fears that the semiconductor cycle was entering a prolonged downturn. ## Recent Pattern: Beats Are No Longer Enough Recent Window 1D Avg 1W Avg 30D Avg Last 4 Nvidia reports \-1.5% \-3.7% 5.8% Last 8 Nvidia reports \-1.4% \-3.5% 6.9% Over the last four earnings reports, Nvidia's average 1-day reaction was negative 1.5%, while its average one-week reaction was negative 3.7%. A similar script also holds for the last 8 reports. That happened despite always beating both EPS and revenue expectations. This pattern says less about Nvidia's execution and more about the expectations already embedded into the stock price. As the AI trade became the dominant market narrative, investors stopped asking whether Nvidia would beat estimates. The only question became whether the company could deliver numbers strong enough to re-accelerate the bullish narrative. Anything short of that increasingly triggered profit-taking. ## What This Means For Nvidia Q1 2027 Earnings The bar into Nvidia’s first-quarter 2027 earnings is extremely high. Historically, Nvidia almost always beats revenue estimates and usually beats EPS estimates. But the stock reaction depends less on whether the company clears consensus and more on the size of the beat, forward guidance and whether investors believe AI demand is still accelerating. The historical data show three key points. The historical data suggest three clear conclusions. First, Nvidia revenue beats are already expected by the market. Second, EPS beats alone have not guaranteed positive stock performance. Third, the first-day and first-week reactions have become increasingly difficult even as the business itself remained exceptionally strong. For Nvidia, the earnings question is no longer whether it can beat. It is beating expectations that may already assume near perfection. **Read Also: AI Trade Faces Make-Or-Break Moment – Only Nvidia Earnings Will Tell** _Image: Shutterstock_ ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [SOXX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXX.US.md) - [NVDU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDU.US.md) - [SOXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXL.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [SMH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMH.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [Eco Wave Power U.S. Joins NVIDIA Inception Program to Advance AI-Driven Renewable Energy Infrastructure | WAVE Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286771032.md) - [ZAWYA: Fortinet deepens integration to uniquely secure enterprise AI at scale with NVIDIA](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287175591.md) - [Cerebras's stock rockets out of the gate, in a sign the AI boom is as strong as ever](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286448448.md) - [RBC increases NVIDIA’s target price to $270, up from $250.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287162052.md) - [June 3rd Options Now Available For NVIDIA (NVDA)](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286933572.md)