---
title: "U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures All Decline, U.S.-Iran Negotiations Stalemate, SpaceX Submits IPO Documents to Sprint for Nasdaq"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/287217532.md"
description: "On May 21, the three major U.S. stock index futures all fell, with Dow futures down 0.11%, S&P 500 futures down 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.38%. Major European stock indices also experienced declines. The bond market faces long-term interest rate upward risks due to uncontrolled debt and inflation pressures. The UAE is accelerating the construction of an oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, expected to be operational by 2027"
datetime: "2026-05-21T12:13:05.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287217532.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287217532.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287217532.md)
---

# U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures All Decline, U.S.-Iran Negotiations Stalemate, SpaceX Submits IPO Documents to Sprint for Nasdaq

## Pre-Market Market Trends

1.  On May 21 (Thursday), U.S. stock index futures fell across the board before the market opened. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.11%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.38%.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260521/1779364503406624.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.45%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.36%, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.49%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.45%.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260521/1779364446220368.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 2.22%, priced at $100.44 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 1.68%, priced at $106.78 per barrel.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260521/1779364479203510.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**The deadly formula for bond market turmoil: uncontrolled debt, stubborn inflation, and rising populism, putting long-term interest rates under pressure.** A Wall Street Journal column pointed out that the issue with soaring bond yields over the past week is not why they have risen so much, but why it didn't happen sooner. U.S. government borrowing has long been out of control, and U.S. inflation has been stuck above the Federal Reserve's 2% target since 2022. Coupled with companies heavily borrowing for AI investments, long-term interest rates should be higher. Investors are demanding more compensation for lending money for years rather than months, reflecting a judgment that debt, inflation, and populism will persist. While this does not mean a bond market crisis is imminent, it is likely to put upward pressure on interest rates in the coming years.

**UAE rushes to build an "energy lifeline" after leaving the group! New oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is nearly 50% complete.** Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), stated on Wednesday that the UAE has completed nearly 50% of the construction of a second oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. It is reported that ADNOC is accelerating the construction of a pipeline from inland oil fields to the east coast port of Fujairah. Fujairah Port, located in the Gulf of Oman, is not affected by the traffic conditions of the Strait of Hormuz. Due to the Middle East war, the UAE has expedited the construction of this project. The pipeline is expected to be operational by 2027. The new pipeline will double ADNOC's export capacity through Fujairah Port, bringing the UAE's total export capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to 3 million barrels per day.

**U.S.-Iran negotiations stalled: Netanyahu is extremely skeptical about negotiations with Iran and hopes to resume military actions, differing from Trump; Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered that weapons-grade uranium must remain in the country.** According to sources, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu holds an extremely skeptical attitude towards negotiations with Iran and hopes to resume military actions U.S. President Trump had a "difficult call" with Netanyahu on Tuesday to discuss attempts to reach a new agreement with Iran. After the call, Netanyahu expressed deep concern, as the two leaders had differences on the next steps. Sources said mediators from Qatar and Pakistan have prepared a revised peace memorandum. Trump told Netanyahu that the mediators are drafting a "letter of intent" to formally end the war and initiate a 30-day negotiation period. Earlier, U.S. media speculated that Washington had yielded to Israeli lobbying on the Iran issue. Additionally, on the afternoon of the 21st local time in Iran, sources indicated that the Supreme Leader of Iran has ordered that weapons-grade uranium must remain in Iran. The sources also stated that the Supreme Leader's directive reflects a consensus among Iranian authorities.

**The Iran conflict triggers collective anxiety in the market! U.S. Treasury Secretary states: Rising yields and inflation are "temporary."** The energy shock, heightened inflation concerns, and cooling expectations for interest rate cuts caused by the situation in Iran have left bond investors and central bank officials feeling tense. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset stated that he believes the currently high bond yields and overall inflation are temporary phenomena that will gradually decline once the related conflicts subside.

**Renowned investment bank warns: U.S. stocks are highly leveraged, and the U.S. economy has become an "AI leveraged gamble."** As artificial intelligence has transformed from a narrative theme on Wall Street to a substantive engine of U.S. economic growth, a deeper question is emerging: Has the world's largest economy overly tied its fate to a rapidly evolving technology? On Wednesday, Lazard CEO Peter Orszag provided a sobering assessment in an interview: "The U.S. economy has become a leveraged bet on the success of artificial intelligence." According to Orszag, the source of growth for the U.S. economy is highly concentrated on two intertwined pillars—artificial intelligence itself and high-income consumers benefiting from the AI-driven stock market rise. The vulnerability of this growth chain lies in the fact that if the AI narrative falters, both engines may stall simultaneously.

**Single quarter \> Full year 2025! Reports suggest Anthropic's Q2 revenue could reach $10.9 billion, achieving quarterly profitability for the first time.** According to informed sources, AI startup Anthropic is expected to achieve $10.9 billion in revenue in the second quarter, surpassing the company's total sales for the previous year. Additionally, if Anthropic reaches this target, the company will achieve its first quarterly profit. The sources added that Anthropic's revenue in the first quarter was $4.8 billion, indicating that its sales have more than doubled in just a few months. Last month, Anthropic announced that its annual recurring revenue (ARR) had exceeded $30 billion, marking significant growth compared to the $9 billion expected by the end of 2025. A report from third-party research firm Semi Analysis in early May indicated that Anthropic's annualized revenue had risen to approximately $44 billion. This growth rate far exceeds that of OpenAI during the same period

## Individual Stock News

**SpaceX officially submits IPO application: annual loss of nearly $5 billion, Musk controls 85% of voting rights.** SpaceX formally submitted its IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday, a deal that is likely to set a new listing record, allowing Elon Musk to simultaneously control two publicly traded companies with market values exceeding $1 trillion. The prospectus shows that SpaceX plans to list on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol "SPCX." SpaceX secretly submitted its IPO application to the SEC in April this year. According to previous reports, SpaceX will begin its roadshow on June 8 and go public on June 12. SpaceX stated that its revenue in the first quarter of this year increased by 15% year-on-year, rising from $4.07 billion a year ago to $4.69 billion. Revenue for the entire year of 2025 is expected to increase by 33%, reaching $18.67 billion. However, the company recorded a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter, with a net loss of $4.94 billion for 2025. The prospectus shows that Musk controls 85% of SpaceX's voting rights, holding 849.5 million Class A shares and 5.57 billion Class B shares. No individual or entity, other than Musk, holds more than 5% of the shares.

**Analysts predict: Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX will merge in 2027.** Wedbush analyst Dan Ives and his team released a research report shortly after the SpaceX prospectus was published, predicting that SpaceX and Tesla will merge in 2027. Ives pointed out that Tesla currently holds shares in SpaceX, and the jointly operated Terafab factory deeply binds the businesses of both companies.

**It is reported that OpenAI may secretly submit IPO application as early as this Friday, with a valuation exceeding $850 billion.** OpenAI is expected to secretly submit its IPO prospectus draft as early as this Friday, as the company prepares for what could be one of the largest IPOs in history. Sources revealed that OpenAI is working with investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, planning to complete the secret filing in the coming days or weeks. Currently, OpenAI's valuation in the private market has exceeded $850 billion.

**NVIDIA (NVDA.US) faces investor skepticism despite "normalized beat" in performance! Jensen Huang states: business diversification is underway, fully covering the physical AI field.** In response to increasing skepticism from investors, NVIDIA emphasized in its latest quarterly earnings report that the company is advancing business diversification, aiming to reduce reliance on large data center operators that have driven its performance surge. CEO Jensen Huang stated in a conference call with analysts that, in the long run, so-called "physical AI" will bring a massive new opportunity through robotics and autonomous vehicles, "we have fully covered this field."

**After a $67 billion merger, New Era Energy (NEE.US) invests another $1.3 billion to acquire Caliber for shale assets.** According to four informed sources, American power giant New Era Energy has agreed to acquire oil and gas investment company Caliber Resource Partners for $1.3 billion and will also establish a joint venture with Caliber's private equity backer Quantum Capital Group Jointly manage the shale assets of the power company in the U.S. This transaction will further enable New Era Energy to gain access to U.S. natural gas supplies. Just a few days ago, the company announced a merger with Dominion Energy (D.US) for $67 billion, which will make it one of the largest power utilities and data center power suppliers in the world.

**One company supports Bitcoin prices! Despite weak market demand, Strategy (MSTR.US) continues to significantly increase its holdings.** The latest data shows that Strategy (MSTR.US) is becoming the core force supporting Bitcoin prices. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is about $77,500, down nearly 30% from a year ago. However, against the backdrop of overall weak market demand, Strategy, led by Saylor, continues to buy Bitcoin on a large scale. According to company disclosure documents, Strategy has accumulated 171,238 Bitcoins so far this year. This scale even exceeds the approximately 62,000 Bitcoins newly produced by the global miner network during the same period.

**Construction equipment business offsets weakness in agriculture sector, Deere & Company (DE.US) reports revenue growth in Q2.** Deere & Company reported revenue growth in the second fiscal quarter, primarily due to the growth of its construction equipment business, effectively offsetting the weak performance of the agricultural machinery sector. The company achieved a net profit of $1.77 billion for the quarter, or $6.55 per share, compared to a net profit of $1.8 billion, or $6.64 per share, in the same period last year. Analysts had previously expected earnings per share of $5.70. Net sales and total revenue grew by 5% to $13.37 billion, while Wall Street's expectation was $12.73 billion.

**E-commerce business drives growth, Walmart (WMT.US) Q1 revenue exceeds expectations.** In the latest quarter, Walmart reported revenue growth, primarily driven by consumers' pursuit of value and increased online purchasing behavior. In the three months ending May 1, the retailer's U.S. same-store sales (referring to stores operating for at least 12 months and digital channel sales) grew by 4.1%, with total revenue reaching $177.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, slightly exceeding expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $0.66, in line with expectations. The company stated that its main business segments and online channels all achieved sales growth, particularly strong demand from high-income households. The e-commerce business became an important driver of performance growth: U.S. e-commerce sales grew by 26% in the quarter, mainly driven by growth in advertising and third-party online sales.

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16.

Beijing time 21:45: U.S. May SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary value.

Beijing time the next day 00:20: 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks.

Beijing time the next day 01:00: U.S. May 21 10-year TIPS auction.

## Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: WorkDay (WDAY.US), Ross Stores (ROST.US), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO.US), Zoom (ZM.US)

### Related Stocks

- [ASTS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ASTS.US.md)
- [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md)

## Related News & Research

- [SpaceX Releases IPO Prospectus Ahead Of June Listing](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287218215.md)
- [SpaceX files for Nasdaq IPO with Musk retaining 85.1% voting control](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287118906.md)
- [SENIOR IRANIAN SOURCE: IRAN'S URANIUM ENRICHMENT AND ITS CONTROL OVER STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAIN AMONG STICKING POINTS](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287267667.md)
- [AL-ARABIYA REPORTER: IRAN PRESIDENT PEZESHKIAN IS SPEARHEADING EFFORTS TO RESTRAIN THE IRGC'S OVERSTEPPING ON POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC POLICY-MAKING](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287258581.md)
- [Axios says Trump is waiting for a response from Iran](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286682237.md)