--- title: "The market is stuck, fluctuating up and down. What is the outlook for semiconductor equipment in the future?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/287297347.md" description: "On May 22, the semiconductor equipment and materials sector experienced increased volatility, with the China Merchants ETF (561980) fluctuating near the waterline. Some stocks, such as CGEE and SICC, saw gains exceeding 5%. High capital congestion led to short-term fluctuations, but the fundamentals remain strong, and performance expectations are optimistic. CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that the industry trend is clear, and the behavior of clustering may self-reinforce. Changxin Technology's IPO will be reviewed on May 27, and it is expected that capacity expansion in the second half of the year will exceed expectations" datetime: "2026-05-22T02:26:33.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287297347.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287297347.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287297347.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # The market is stuck, fluctuating up and down. What is the outlook for semiconductor equipment in the future? On May 22, the semiconductor equipment and materials sector experienced increased volatility, with the semiconductor equipment ETF China Merchants (561980) oscillating near the waterline, and the performance of constituent stocks diverging. As of 10:14, CGEE, SICC, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation rose over 6%, 5%, and 4% respectively, while SMIC and Cambricon increased by over 1%. Several stocks, including Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment, Northern Huachuang, and Tuojing Technology, turned negative. 【Why is the volatility increasing?】 High capital crowding is the primary reason. As one of the highest-gaining sectors this year, the semiconductor equipment sector has accumulated significant profit-taking pressure, leading to volatility risks due to short-term capital group behavior. However, benefiting from the certainty of the dual storage listing expansion and solid performance support, the intensity of capital inflow into the sector after the short-term emotional release may still be worth monitoring. From a fundamental perspective, leading equipment manufacturers such as Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment and Tuojing Technology saw net profit growth rates of 198% and 471% year-on-year in the first quarter, respectively. Northern Huachuang's quarterly revenue exceeded 10 billion, and the China Securities Semiconductor Industry Index achieved nine consecutive quarters of year-on-year net profit growth, indicating an overall upward trend in the industry, thus the market has high performance expectations. 【How do performance expectations guide group behavior?】 CITIC Securities pointed out that the essence of group behavior is the high concentration of market consensus in a specific direction. When industry trends are clear and performance continues to exceed expectations, group behavior reinforces itself. Looking back at the historical lessons of the new energy sector, capital expenditure often peaks before profits and market performance. However, due to the extremely high technical barriers in the core areas of AI computing power, rapid technological iteration, and long lead times for capacity deployment, supply cannot experience explosive growth in the short term, while demand continues to rise exponentially. The supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist in the foreseeable future, making it unlikely to repeat the severe oversupply seen in the new energy industry. Future attention should be paid to the pace of capacity deployment. 【What is the outlook for semiconductor equipment?】 For semiconductor equipment, the continued listing of Changxin Storage is the main catalyst driving enthusiasm in the sector. On May 20, according to the Shanghai Stock Exchange website, Changxin Technology's Sci-Tech Innovation Board IPO will be reviewed on May 27, and Yangtze Memory Technologies has also initiated IPO guidance this week. According to CITIC Securities observations, the number of domestic advanced logic players is increasing, with good progress in line and yield improvement, and mass production expansion is imminent, with the possibility of exceeding expectations in the second half of the year. Currently, mass production expansion in storage has begun, and the two major domestic storage manufacturers have initiated mass production, with the downstream expansion cycle becoming increasingly clear. At the same time, advanced packaging is about to ramp up, with leading company Shenghe Jingwei having gone public in April, and domestic advanced packaging expansion is expected to begin ramping up, with the trend of self-control continuously strengthening. Recent events such as the MATCH Act and the suspension of Huahong's supply have further strengthened the trend of self-control, and domestic advanced equipment verification is proceeding very smoothly, with the localization rate entering a rapid improvement phase. Galaxy Securities pointed out that driven by storage expansion and the expectation of wafer fabs expanding under high capacity utilization, companies like Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment, Huahai Qingshi, Northern Huachuang, and Chipone have recently raised their order expectations for this year, further boosting the prosperity of the semiconductor equipment sector. 【How to rationally layout?】 Although the fundamentals of the sector are strongly supported and the medium to long-term upward trend in the industry is robust, considering the significant short-term gains in the technology direction, there may be a certain demand for adjustment. Therefore, from an investment perspective, it may be appropriate to switch from short-term operations to a medium to long-term view, seeking more suitable and rational participation opportunities. In addition, the opportunities for diffusion from semiconductor equipment to the industry chain are also worth paying attention to. For example, under the rigid demand for CPUs from Agents, domestic CPUs are expected to undergo a value reassessment. According to Guojin Securities, as large models evolve from Chatbots to Agents, the focus of computational load is shifting. Agents not only require GPUs for model inference but also rely on high-performance CPUs to handle complex logic orchestration, tool invocation, and memory management. Recently, Morgan Stanley's breakdown of the bill of materials for NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin rack shows that the proportion of GPUs has decreased from 65% to 51%. In terms of allocation, the deployment ratio of AI data center CPUs to GPUs is gradually evolving from the traditional HGX era of 1:4 and 1:8 to 1:2, 1:1, or even higher. Taking NVIDIA as an example, the GB300 NVL72 has achieved a 1:2 ratio with 72 GPUs paired with 36 Grace CPUs. Currently, the semiconductor equipment ETF China Merchants (561980) tracks the CSI Semiconductor Industry Index, which is one of the few A-share indices with a 100% allocation to equipment, materials, design, and manufacturing. Among the top ten weights, Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei Company together account for 28%, Cambrian and Haiguang Information together account for 15%, and SMIC accounts for 5%. This index has allocated 20% more to CPU/GPU and advanced process manufacturing compared to a single equipment theme index, leading in medium to long-term gains since 2020 compared to the Sci-Tech Innovation chip and semiconductor materials and equipment indices. Finally, the semiconductor industry has both growth and cyclicality. From the sales indicators, the global semiconductor cycle is still in an upward channel. After short-term fluctuations, there may still be opportunities. During the phase of sector volatility, avoiding decisions driven by short-term emotions and adopting a disciplined investment approach through phased profit-taking or long-term holding may be easier to achieve ### Related Stocks - [688478.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688478.CN.md) - [688234.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688234.CN.md) - [561980.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/561980.CN.md) - [688146.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688146.CN.md) - [688981.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688981.CN.md) - [00981.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00981.HK.md) - [688256.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688256.CN.md) - [688012.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688012.CN.md) - [002371.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002371.CN.md) - [688072.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688072.CN.md) - [601066.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601066.CN.md) - [06066.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06066.HK.md) - [688820.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688820.CN.md) - [688120.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688120.CN.md) - [688037.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688037.CN.md) - [601881.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601881.CN.md) - [06881.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06881.HK.md) - [600109.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600109.CN.md) - [MS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [HSMD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSMD.SG.md) - [MS-O.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-O.US.md) - [MS-Q.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-Q.US.md) - [MS-E.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-E.US.md) - [MS-I.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-I.US.md) - [MS-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-L.US.md) - [MS-P.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-P.US.md) - [MS-A.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-A.US.md) - [MS-F.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-F.US.md) - [MS-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS-K.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [SICC schedules online interim results briefing for investors](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297325590.md) - [SICC to Record RMB30 Million Asset Impairment in First Half of 2026](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296396936.md) - [Comparing Broadcom With Industry Competitors In Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Industry](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297162991.md) - [Evaluating NVIDIA Against Peers In Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Industry](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297161881.md) - [World's Largest Refiner Says China's Oil Demand "Very Likely Peaked Last Year"](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296848568.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**