--- title: "$100 Billion Sell-Off Looms! The Largest IPO in US Stock Market History Is Coming, but the \"Mag7\" Is in Danger" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/287312043.md" description: "SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are preparing for their listings. Coupled with Nasdaq's \"fast-track inclusion\" mechanism, which allows SpaceX to be added to the index just 15 days after its listing, this will trigger unprecedented capital reallocation. JPMorgan estimates that passive funds will be forced to sell approximately $95 billion worth of holdings in eight major existing Wall Street tech stocks to make room, with the impact heavily overlapping with the \"Mag7.\"" datetime: "2026-05-22T05:40:23.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287312043.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287312043.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287312043.md) --- # $100 Billion Sell-Off Looms! The Largest IPO in US Stock Market History Is Coming, but the "Mag7" Is in Danger Three tech giants—SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—are clustering their listings. Combined with Nasdaq's newly implemented "fast-track inclusion" mechanism, this is brewing an unprecedented large-scale reallocation of passive capital. On Wednesday, Elon Musk's SpaceX formally filed for an IPO in the United States, expected to become the largest IPO in history. On the same day, OpenAI's listing plans came to light, while competitor Anthropic announced it is approaching profitability, actively paving the way for its own listing. The intensive moves by these three giants have put Wall Street on high alert. The market's primary concern regarding the impact focuses on existing constituents. With a target valuation of $1.75 trillion, JPMorgan calculates that if 50% of SpaceX's shares eventually become freely tradable and its valuation reaches $2 trillion, **passive funds will be forced to sell approximately $95 billion worth of holdings in the eight major existing Wall Street tech stocks (NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Tesla) to rebalance and make room, with the scope of impact heavily overlapping with the "Mag7."** The driver behind this reallocation is a rule change recently implemented by Nasdaq this month. To secure SpaceX's listing resources and suppress its competitor, the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq has significantly relaxed its index inclusion criteria, **allowing SpaceX to join the Nasdaq 100 Index just 15 days after its IPO.** S&P Dow Jones Indices is also consulting on similar revisions, potentially clearing the way for SpaceX's rapid inclusion in the S&P 500 Index. ## $100 Billion Sell-Pressure: Mag7 Becomes the Primary Outlet JPMorgan's calculations reveal the potential impact of this capital reallocation on existing constituents. If SpaceX achieves the aforementioned valuation and free-float ratio targets, passive investors must sell approximately $95 billion worth of holdings in the eight existing tech stocks to accommodate the index weight space occupied by SpaceX. Valérie Noël, Head of Trading at Syz Group, stated that the "most hotly discussed trading strategies" surrounding SpaceX's listing include: **shorting "marginal constituents" that might be removed from the Nasdaq 100, and betting on downward pressure on existing large-cap stocks.** Todd Sohn, Chief ETF Strategist at Strategas, pointed out that stock prices could surge significantly after the IPO, leaving passive investors with no choice but to buy in at high levels. "If SpaceX rises 100% in the week after listing, passive funds still have to buy; they have to buy at that price... They have no right to refuse," he said. ## Liquidity Dilemma: Small Free Float Leverages Trillions in Capital The initial free-float ratio for SpaceX's IPO is approximately 5%, with lock-up periods set to expire in batches within 180 days post-listing, as stipulated in the prospectus. Sohn noted that this means the index inclusion process will be "somewhat chaotic, because ETFs and passive products track trillions of dollars in assets, yet only 5% of shares are available for purchase." Christian Raute, Head of Market Trading Strategy at Citibank, also warned that the time window between SpaceX's IPO and its index inclusion is extremely short, making the situation "very noisy." "The scale is so large; this is a major challenge, and stock prices could become very expensive," he said. However, Raute also pointed out that the market will ultimately "not face issues in digesting these IPOs," as "the entire industry is prepared, and participants are well-trained." Facing this historic capital restructuring, some institutional investors are quite optimistic. A portfolio manager at a large US hedge fund stated, "We will participate fully in all three companies, placing bets on the largest scale... We are completely unconstrained by liquidity." For ordinary investors holding index funds or ETFs, it is harder to stay on the sidelines in this game: whether active or not, their portfolios will be passively reshaped along with the changes in rules. ### Related Stocks - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [AMZN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZN.US.md) - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [META.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/META.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [OpenAI.NA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OpenAI.NA.md) - [SpaceX.NA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SpaceX.NA.md) - [AMZW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZW.US.md) - [AAPU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPU.US.md) - [QQQM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [AAPB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPB.US.md) - [QQQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [GOOW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOW.US.md) - [AMZU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZU.US.md) - [AMZZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZZ.US.md) - [MGK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MGK.US.md) - [.NDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [AVGO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AVGO.US.md) - [SPGI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPGI.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C.US.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-J.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) - [C-R.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C-R.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [The real winner of SpaceX’s IPO: Mark Zuckerberg](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287131396.md) - [EXPLAINER-From Meta to SpaceX: how dual-class shares keep founders in control](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287350419.md) - [Elon Musk Says SpaceX's Anthropic Deal Shows It Can Offer AI Compute As A Service At Scale: 'We Are In Discussions With Other Companies…'](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287150584.md) - [Elon Musk loses lawsuit against OpenAI](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286812700.md) - [Anthropic news: revenue growth surges, eyes first profit, beating OpenAI](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287194099.md)