--- title: "A Look At AerCap Holdings (AER) Valuation As Recent Returns Send Mixed Signals" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/287330727.md" description: "A Look At AerCap Holdings (AER) Valuation As Recent Returns Send Mixed Signals" datetime: "2026-05-22T08:27:30.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287330727.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287330727.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287330727.md) --- # A Look At AerCap Holdings (AER) Valuation As Recent Returns Send Mixed Signals ## Recent performance context for AerCap Holdings (AER) AerCap Holdings (AER) has seen mixed share performance recently, with the stock roughly flat over the past month and down over the past 3 months, despite a positive total return over the past year and over multi year periods. See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings. Despite some recent pressure, with the 3 month share price return down 7.8% and the year to date share price return down 3.5%, AerCap’s longer term picture looks stronger. The 1 year total shareholder return is 25.8%, and the 3 year total shareholder return is about 1.5x. If AerCap’s profile has you reviewing other opportunities in the capital goods and infrastructure space, this is a good moment to scan 35 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks So with AerCap posting a mixed recent share performance but solid multi year total returns, is a stock around $139 with analyst targets above $160 signaling undervaluation, or is the market already pricing in future growth? ## Most Popular Narrative: 14.8% Undervalued With AerCap closing at $139.57 versus a widely followed fair value narrative of about $163.78, the gap hinges on how investors view future earnings power, capital returns, and industry conditions. > _Expansion of ancillary services, particularly AerCap's spare engine leasing and new engine/MRO partnerships such as the Air France-KLM JV, diversify revenue sources and add higher-margin income streams, positively impacting overall earnings growth. > Prudent capital allocation, supported by a strong balance sheet and ongoing deleveraging, positions AerCap to capture opportunities in sale-leasebacks and organic fleet growth as OEM deliveries ramp up, driving revenue and earnings upside while containing interest expense._ Read the complete narrative. Want to see what is baked into that valuation gap? The narrative links AerCap's future earnings, margins, and multiple to a tight aircraft market and meaningful buybacks, with one central set of assumptions doing the heavy lifting. **Result: Fair Value of $163.78 (UNDERVALUED)** Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on tight aircraft supply and strong lease economics persisting, while risks around OEM delivery ramp ups and airline credit stress could quickly challenge that story. Find out about the key risks to this AerCap Holdings narrative. ## Another View: Cash Flow Says Something Different While the analyst fair value narrative suggests AerCap is about 14.8% undervalued around $139, the Simply Wall St DCF model points the other way, with an estimate of $92.53 that implies the stock is trading well above its modeled future cash flows. Which story do you think fits your expectations better? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. AER Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026 Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out AerCap Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. ## Next Steps Does this mix of risks and rewards leave you on the fence? Act while the information is fresh and weigh both sides by reviewing the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs. ## Looking for more investment ideas? If AerCap has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to spot a broader range of stocks that fit your goals. - Target potential mispricings by scanning 53 high quality undervalued stocks that combine quality fundamentals with room for upside. - Prioritise resilience by searching 66 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on financial strength and volatility. - Hunt for future standouts with the screener containing 20 high quality undiscovered gems before they appear on everyone else's radar. _This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. **We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.** It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._ ### **New:** Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place We've created the **ultimate portfolio companion** for stock investors, **and it's free.** • Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency • Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile • Track the Fair Value of your stocks Try a Demo Portfolio for Free ### Related Stocks - [AER.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AER.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Does AerCap’s 2026 Buyback and Jet Order Shift the Bull Case for AerCap Holdings (AER)?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289085813.md) - [Ativo Capital Management LLC Makes New Investment in Aercap Holdings N.V. $AER](https://longbridge.com/en/news/285039378.md) - [Notable ETF Outflow Detected - IEUR, SPOT, NBIS, AER](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289074385.md) - [Russell Investments Group Ltd. Lowers Position in Aercap Holdings N.V. $AER](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278536697.md) - [High Ground Investment Management LLP Purchases Shares of 748,519 Aercap Holdings N.V. $AER](https://longbridge.com/en/news/274955351.md)