--- title: "CSI 300 to see 6000 points? JP Morgan's latest statement: Foreign capital accelerates buying Chinese stocks" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/287347232.md" description: "JP Morgan's latest analysis points out that supported by both domestic liquidity and the return of foreign capital, the Chinese stock market is expected to rise, with a year-end target price of 5,200 points for the CSI 300, and in an optimistic scenario, it could reach 6,000 points. The A-share market is active, with a reasonable proportion of margin financing, and risks are controllable. The underweight of overseas investors in Chinese stocks has significantly improved, especially the underweight of Asian active funds has narrowed from -8.3% to -1%" datetime: "2026-05-22T10:21:49.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287347232.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287347232.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287347232.md) --- # CSI 300 to see 6000 points? JP Morgan's latest statement: Foreign capital accelerates buying Chinese stocks **Text | Zhou Ailin** **Editor | Liu Peng** The Chinese stock market is ushering in a "strong internal and external" pattern, with significant recovery in the popularity of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. How do international institutions view the current investment opportunities and the outlook for capital inflows? **"Under-allocation" level significantly repaired, foreign capital allocation window far from closed** During the 2026 JP Morgan China Summit, JP Morgan's China equity strategist Zhang Xiaoning told Tencent Finance that JP Morgan's latest assessment indicates that with the dual support of sustained domestic liquidity and accelerated overseas capital return, the Chinese stock market still has considerable upside potential—setting a year-end benchmark target price of 5,200 points for the CSI 300, with an optimistic scenario reaching 6,000 points. In terms of the A-share market, the current trading activity is in a healthy range. The turnover rate hit a phase low on April 7 but remained above 3%, at a level above the historical bottoms of previous bull markets. After entering May, it rebounded to over 5%, with a single-day peak close to 6%; the proportion of margin buying remained in the range of 10% to 11%, with overall leverage being reasonable and risks controllable, showing no signs of leverage runaway as seen in historically overheated markets. As for Hong Kong stocks, the participation of international capital is even more critical. Over the past few years, "hot money" such as hedge funds has been coming and going, but global large public funds and sovereign funds have consistently maintained a "low allocation" to the Chinese market. However, JP Morgan has indicated that the most noteworthy structural change in this round of market activity is that, over the past two years, overseas investors—especially regional and global active funds—have seen a historic repair in their "under-allocation" to Chinese stocks. Zhang Xiaoning noted that the most significant repair has been among active funds in Asia (excluding Japan). These funds had an under-allocation to Chinese stocks that once reached -8.3% at the end of February 2024, reflecting the most concentrated avoidance of Chinese assets by foreign capital in recent years; as of now, this figure has significantly narrowed to -1%, with a cumulative repair of over 7 percentage points in two years. The trajectory of emerging market active funds is similar—under-allocation has shrunk from -4.5% at the end of January 2024 to the current -2%, with a reduction that is also noteworthy. The changes in global funds appear mild, narrowing slightly from about -2% at the beginning of the year to -1.7%, but this figure hides a larger volume of funds behind it. The managed scale of global funds is five times that of regional funds; the same degree of under-allocation repair brings a real capital increment that is far from comparable to regional funds. In other words, for every 0.1 percentage point increase in allocation to China by global funds, the actual scale of inflowing funds may be more substantial than the overall repositioning of Asian funds. Data on capital inflows corroborates this trend. As of May 15, 2026, overseas listed public funds tracked by EPFR have recorded a net inflow of $13.1 billion year-to-date, a figure significantly higher than the same period in previous years, serving as the most direct evidence of foreign capital increasing allocation to Chinese assets It is worth noting that the above data has not yet reflected the continuous inflow over the past two weeks—the actual net inflow scale is still expanding. JP Morgan's judgment is that the current underweight adjustment of foreign capital in Chinese stocks has not yet ended, and there is still room to reach a neutral allocation, with the window for increasing allocation far from closed. **Three Core Allocations: AI Ecosystem, Energy Security, Robotics** Under the dual support of "ample liquidity + stable earnings," JP Morgan has provided the clearest allocation answer for the Chinese stock market: focus on high-quality growth, select individual stocks, and heavily invest in three main lines—artificial intelligence ecosystem, energy security, and robotics. The AI main line is self-evident. Since 2026, the stock price of Zhizhu AI (2513.HK) has increased by over 800%, and MiniMax (2585.HK) has seen a maximum increase of over 710%; the AI computing PCB leader, Shenghong Technology (02476.HK), surged 50% on its first day of listing, while the memory interface chip leader, Lanqi Technology (06809.HK), soared 52% on its debut. AI has undoubtedly become the number one theme in the Hong Kong stock market and even the global capital market. IDC predicts that the global AI industry will have a compound annual growth rate of over 30% from 2024 to 2029, with the growth rate in the Chinese market also approaching 30%. This means that within the next five years, the market size of AI-related industries will expand more than threefold—this growth is still in the early to mid-stage. JP Morgan's allocation logic is not limited to a specific segment but views AI as a complete ecological chain—from basic computing power (servers, PCBs, optical modules, storage chips) to the model layer (large model companies, inference optimization), and then to the application layer (AI software, industry-specific solutions), all of which are expected to benefit systematically. Zhang Xiaoning told Tencent Finance that although the sector has experienced a significant rise, raising valuations and causing market divergence regarding future trends, "after carefully sorting and selecting each sub-track of AI, we believe that the performance growth of AI manufacturing companies has strong predictability, with solid fundamental support." Regarding the theme of energy security, Zhang Xiaoning believes it has clear policy anchors, real order support, and benefits from a rare resonance of domestic and foreign demand. JP Morgan breaks down the energy security track into four specific sub-lines: new energy vehicles, power equipment (grid equipment + energy storage), new energy (wind power + photovoltaics), and upstream raw materials. The logic on the domestic demand side is simple and direct. The proportion of new energy in China's total energy has surpassed 10%, with a mid-term policy target of 30% and a long-term target of 50%. Moving from 10% to 50% means that the entire industry chain is still in the early to mid-stage of the growth curve—whether it is grid expansion, energy storage support, new energy installations, or upstream lithium mines and silicon materials, the medium to long-term growth space has not been fully priced in. On the foreign demand side, ongoing regional conflicts have pushed up international oil prices, and historically, high oil price environments have always been catalysts for accelerating the penetration rate of new energy. JP Morgan judges that this external pressure will accelerate the penetration speed of categories such as new energy vehicles in overseas markets—whether in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, or Europe, high oil prices are quietly changing consumers' energy choice logic Among the three core tracks, robotics may currently have the largest market divergence, but JP Morgan's attitude is quite positive, splitting the robotics sector into two distinctly different main lines, each suited for different investment cycles. The short-term catalysts for humanoid robots are clear, but the long-term path still needs validation. In 2026, the IPO plans of some emerging humanoid robot companies will bring phased market attention and valuation reassessment to the sector. The cyclical opportunities for industrial robots are more solid and the logic is clearer. JP Morgan predicts that the capital expenditure cycle of China's overall economy is expected to restart its upward trend around the end of 2026. As the core vehicle for manufacturing upgrades, industrial robots will directly benefit from the initiation of this capital expenditure cycle—its profit elasticity will be concentratedly released after the cycle turning point. 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