--- title: "\"Don't Short Lightly\"! S&P 500 Posts Rare Eight-Week Winning Streak, Highest Wall Street Target Sees 8,250" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/287743054.md" description: "U.S. stocks staged a strong summer rebound, with the S&P 500 rising for eight consecutive weeks, marking its second-strongest eight-week gain since 1952. Micron Tech's surge has fueled discussions of a \"melt-up,\" but analysts argue the rally is driven by significant upgrades to forward earnings of constituent companies, representing \"fabulous earnings momentum\" rather than blind speculation. Ed Yardeni raised his year-end S&P 500 Price Target to 8,250, the highest forecast among Wall Street peers, while Goldman Sachs also lifted its target to 8,000" datetime: "2026-05-27T09:01:27.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/287743054.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287743054.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287743054.md) --- # "Don't Short Lightly"! S&P 500 Posts Rare Eight-Week Winning Streak, Highest Wall Street Target Sees 8,250 The strong rebound in U.S. stocks has evolved into the hottest market narrative of the summer. The S&P 500 has risen for eight consecutive weeks, setting a record for the second-strongest eight-week gain since 1952. With the index just about 6.5% away from the key milestone of 8,000 points for the year, discussions of a "melt-up" on Wall Street have heated up. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index hit fresh historical closing highs on Tuesday. Micron Tech surged nearly 20% in a single day, its largest one-day gain since 2011, becoming the 12th U.S. company to break the $1 trillion market capitalization mark; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped slightly but still closed at its second-highest level in history. The S&P 500 closed at 7,519.12. The ferocity of this rally is making some investors uneasy. Bret Kenwell, an investment analyst at eToro US, stated in an interview that the current market trend "feels like we are experiencing a melt-up." Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management pointed out that Micron's surge was largely driven by a "gamma squeeze" in the options market, casting doubt on its sustainability. However, historical data and earnings fundamentals provide support for bulls. **Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, recently raised his year-end S&P 500 Price Target to 8,250, the highest forecast among Wall Street peers; Goldman Sachs also raised its S&P target to 8,000.** Historical backtesting shows that in all past instances of an eight-week winning streak, the probability of the S&P 500 achieving positive returns one year later was as high as 89%. ## Eight-Week Winning Streak, Rare in 70 Years According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500's current eight-week winning streak is the longest since December 2023. Analysis by Bespoke Investment Group further reveals that the cumulative gain of 17.3% over these eight weeks is the second-strongest eight-week rally since 1952, extremely rare in over 70 years of history. Bespoke compiled the subsequent performance of the S&P 500 after every historical eight-week winning streak. The results show: the probability of positive returns was 74% after one month, 74% after three months, 74% after six months, and a remarkable 89% after one year, with a median one-year return of 11.25%. Focusing on scenarios where the eight-week gain exceeded 15%—more comparable to the current rally—the probability of positive returns after one year rises to 100%, with a median gain of 17.57%. ## Melt-Up Signals: Semiconductors Lead, Options Add Variables "Melt-up" is typically used to describe the final sprint of an out-of-control bull market, where stock prices soar rapidly driven by sentiment, with valuations far exceeding fundamentals. A classic example is the period before the Nasdaq peaked in March 2000, when the index nearly doubled between early October 1999 and March of the following year. **In the current market, the semiconductor sector is at the core of the melt-up discussion.** Bret Kenwell pointed out that semiconductor stocks are currently experiencing their strongest performance period on record. Micron's move on Tuesday was particularly typical: surging nearly 20% in a single day to join the $1 trillion market cap club. Some Wall Street traders believe this was mainly driven by investors buying large amounts of out-of-the-money call options. Michael Kramer characterized it as a "gamma squeeze"—where options market makers inadvertently amplify stock price gains while hedging positions. "Micron is currently undergoing a massive gamma squeeze, and no one knows how long this can last," he said. ## FEMO, Not FOMO Ed Yardeni offered a completely different interpretation of this rally, arguing that focusing solely on the speed of the rise might obscure more critical information. He pointed out that during periods of irrational exuberance, stock price increases usually far outpace the growth in earnings expectations; but the situation in 2026 is exactly the opposite. As of last Friday, the S&P 500 had gained 9.2% year-to-date, while forward earnings expectations for constituent companies overall increased by 14.4% during the same period, causing the index's forward P/E ratio to decrease rather than increase, compressing by more than 4%. **Ed Yardeni defined this phenomenon as "FEMO"—"Fabulous Earnings Momentum"—to distinguish it from emotion-driven "FOMO" (Fear Of Missing Out).** "Analysts are raising earnings expectations because hard data and corporate guidance have given them ample reason," he wrote in a comment. Based on this judgment, Ed Yardeni recently raised his year-end S&P 500 Price Target to 8,250, becoming the highest forecast among current Wall Street peers. Goldman Sachs also raised its S&P target to 8,000. ## The Road Ahead: 8,000 Is Not Out of Reach In Bret Kenwell's view, as long as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran does not trigger a global economic recession, it is not wishful thinking for the S&P 500 to touch 8,000 or higher within the year—the index is currently only about 6.5% away from this threshold. "When you witness a market like this, it's easy to think a correction could come at any time," he told MarketWatch, "but sometimes this kind of market can go further and last longer than you expect." The dual support of historical performance and earnings fundamentals is leading more market participants to be cautious about shorting lightly. Bespoke data shows that historically, within one year after the end of an eight-week winning streak, the probability of positive returns for the S&P 500 was as high as 89%; and when the eight-week gain exceeded 15%, this win rate reached 100%. ### Related Stocks - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IVV.US.md) - [SOXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXL.US.md) - [MUU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MUU.US.md) - [PSI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSI.US.md) - [SMH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMH.US.md) - [FTXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FTXL.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOO.US.md) - [MULL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MULL.US.md) - [SOXX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXX.US.md) - [XSD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XSD.US.md) - [SOXQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXQ.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [ETOR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETOR.US.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/W4VR.SG.md) ## Related News & Research - [The Great AI Rotation: Cashing In on Data](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287096846.md) - [Micron joins the trillion-dollar club: how high can MU shares fly in 2026?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287677824.md) - [Why Is Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) Rising Today, 5/22/2026?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287369886.md) - [As Micron Heeds Trump’s Call for Domestic DRAM Manufacturing, MU Stock Is Still Undervalued](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287794762.md) - [Pathfinder Wealth Consulting Inc. 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