By Barbara Kollmeyer
Gold's rally should resume once Iran conflict ends
Gold at $10,000 by 2030? Yardeni Research believes that will happen.
Investors could be facing a scenario of double 10Ks by the end of the decade - 10,000 for the S&amp;P 500 and $10,000 for gold - if a forecast by Yardeni Research plays out.
&#34;Our long-term bullish stance on gold rests on the idea that the S&amp;P 500 could rally to 10,000 by the end of the decade. We expect that along the way, investors will rebalance into other assets, including gold,&#34; Ed Yardeni, founder and president of financial research group, told clients in a note on Thursday.
While the S&amp;P 500 SPX and gold prices tend to be inversely correlated on a cyclical basis, over time, they march in the same direction together, so when the index hits 10,000, gold should do the same, said Yardeni.
The Wall Street veteran also sees a more upbeat near-term picture, with gold shaking off the gloom it has gathered since the Iran war, and rallying once that conflict officially ends. He expects gold will reach $5,500 an ounce by the end of 2026, nearly a $1,000 gain from Friday's level of $4,553 an ounce.
While the S&amp;P 500 SPX has largely pushed aside the conflict to hit a string of record closes since a March 30 low, gold (GC00) has struggled to reclaim its peak of $5,318 an ounce reached in late January, he noted. Gold is up just 5% this year, after a spectacular rally of more than 70% in 2025.
The commodity fell sharply in March to around $4,375 an ounce and rebounded through mid-April as a cease-fire held. But gold seems to be testing that March low, its 200-day moving average of $4,407 an ounce and an intermediate upward trend line, following a late Thursday report that Iran and the U.S. could be close to extending their cease-fire for 60 days, said Yardeni.
&#34;The drop in prices since the end of January has put it back within an upward-trending channel that began in late 2023,&#34; and that support looks ready to hold, he said.
Gold's wartime struggle has come as the dollar rose, which is bearish for gold, and some central banks had to sell reserves of the precious metal to support their currencies weighed down by higher oil prices. Yardeni expects the Federal Reserve will turn more hawkish on interest rates during the summer, which would stall a gold rally, but the end of the Iran conflict would should help diminish that impact.
-Barbara Kollmeyer
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-29-26 0428ET

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GOLD

Yardeni Research forecasts that both the S&P 500 and gold could reach 10,000 by 2030. Ed Yardeni believes that as the S&P 500 rallies, investors will shift towards gold, which is expected to rise to $5,500 an ounce by the end of 2026. Despite recent struggles due to the Iran conflict, gold's long-term outlook remains bullish, especially if the conflict ends, allowing for a potential rally.

- Yardeni Research predicts gold could reach $10,000 by 2030, correlating with a potential S&P 500 rise to the same level.  
- Ed Yardeni asserts that investor rebalancing into gold will occur as the S&P 500 rallies, especially after conflicts in Iran subside.  
- He projects gold will reach $5,500 an ounce by the end of 2026, despite recent struggles and volatility linked to geopolitical tensions and dollar strength.

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The double 10K scenario: Wall Street veteran says the S&P 500 and gold can each reach that mark by the end of the decade