--- title: "SpaceX Has Not Yet Listed, but the Crypto Market Has Started a 'Rehearsal': Pre-IPO Contracts See $18 Million in Average Daily Turnover" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/288067417.md" description: "The crypto market has launched SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual futures contracts, with average daily turnover nearing $18 million over the past two weeks and open interest exceeding $50 million. Although the market accurately 'predicted' the pricing during the Cerebras listing, recent forced liquidations triggered by oracle failures have exposed structural limitations and high risks, including the lack of a fair market price and heavy reliance on off-chain data" datetime: "2026-05-29T12:21:23.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288067417.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288067417.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288067417.md) --- # SpaceX Has Not Yet Listed, but the Crypto Market Has Started a 'Rehearsal': Pre-IPO Contracts See $18 Million in Average Daily Turnover The cryptocurrency market is pricing in SpaceX's listing performance months in advance through pre-IPO perpetual futures contracts. Synthetic asset contracts tracking SpaceX were launched this month, with average daily trading volume approaching $18 million over the past two weeks. On the Trade.xyz platform, **the contract has recently traded around $200, and the total open interest, denominated in the USDC stablecoin, has exceeded $50 million.** Investors cite the listing case of Cerebras Systems to endorse the signaling value of this market. According to a report by Castle Labs, Trade.xyz launched the contract at $175 when Cerebras' pricing range was determined, and the AI chip company ultimately set its issue price at $185; one hour before the Nasdaq opening, the contract was quoted at $340, and Cerebras subsequently opened at $350. However, it is difficult to establish a complete credit record based on a single data point. Nevertheless, the risks are equally clear. On May 28, an error in oracle data input on the Ventuals platform triggered forced liquidations for some users holding SpaceX contracts. Perpetual contracts do not grant holders any legal rights to the underlying company and carry inherent risks such as position costs and distortions in funding rates. ## Crypto Infrastructure Opens Access to Pre-Listing Markets Applying perpetual futures to pre-listing stocks was initially merely a workaround for retail investors to indirectly participate in hot AI startups. However, as the valuations of AI unicorns like Anthropic and OpenAI continue to rise, these products have moved from the fringe to the mainstream—Binance, Bitget, and OKX have all launched similar products this year. Lloyd Lee, CEO of crypto hedge fund Hyperithm, stated, "The pre-IPO market has historically been the exclusive domain of accredited investors and private equity funds, but crypto infrastructure is opening this door to anyone with a wallet." He further pointed out that less than 10% of the global population can directly participate in US stock investments, and access to pre-listing markets is even scarcer; for traders in regions with weak financial infrastructure, gaining such exposure through perpetual futures is significant. Demand for tokenized pre-listing products had already been heating up due to soaring valuations of AI unicorns, and the accurate 'prediction' of the Cerebras listing further strengthened market interest in SpaceX contracts, causing previously wait-and-see traders to take the market's price discovery function seriously. ## Cerebras Provides a Reference: What Is the Signaling Value? Supporters argue that the Cerebras case demonstrates that pre-listing perpetual contracts can effectively aggregate real demand signals before an IPO is opened to the public, rather than simply creating speculative noise. Looking at the data, Trade.xyz launched the contract at $175 when Cerebras' pricing range was set at $115 to $125, with the final issue price landing at $185; one hour before the Nasdaq opening, the contract was quoted at $340, and Cerebras subsequently opened at $350—the error in both sets of data was within single-digit percentages. Luca Parlamento, Portfolio Manager at D2 Finance, characterized these trades as "basis trading," betting on how the spread evolves under the combined influence of demand, scarcity, and liquidity just before an IPO. "Pre-listing perpetual contracts fold this time window into a public order book before the opening bell rings," he said. "They are not a substitute for the traditional secondary market for accredited investors, but rather a venue that allows retail investors to trade the IPO opening basis in real time." He also acknowledged the limitations of this mechanism: there are no actual shares available for arbitrage before listing, funding rates may distort returns, and large price fluctuations sometimes reflect more of an imbalance in retail capital flows than the fundamental value of the company. ## Risks Remain: Oracle Failures and Structural Limitations The structural risks of perpetual contracts were exemplified this month. On May 28, the Ventuals platform confirmed to users that an off-chain data provider used to track SpaceX pricing had input incorrect data, causing severe anomalies in the contract's oracle price and mark price, resulting in forced liquidations for some user positions. This incident revealed the unique vulnerability of pre-listing contracts: **since the underlying company has not yet listed and lacks a continuous public market price as a reference, the settlement price relies entirely on the oracle mechanism; if the data source deviates, the consequences are borne directly by the position holders.** In terms of scale, this market remains quite limited. The average daily turnover of SpaceX contracts is in the millions of dollars, while SpaceX's expected IPO fundraising is as high as $75 billion. The vast disparity between the two means that price signals from the crypto market are yet to fully capture institutional-level real demand, nor can they withstand the impact of large-scale capital flows. ## Long-Term Holding Signals Emerge Despite diverse risks, some participants are showing signs of long-term positioning. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, stated that among SpaceX contract traders, "there is indeed a group of users choosing to hold their exposure rather than immediately taking profits." The open interest in Trade.xyz's SpaceX perpetual contracts currently exceeds $50 million. While this figure is far from SpaceX's expected IPO scale, it shows considerable participation depth for a market that has been live for only two weeks. For retail investors, these products may not allow them to truly become early shareholders of SpaceX—but they have gained something they never had before: a real-time tradable price benchmark before the company goes public. ### Related Stocks - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [HUT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HUT.US.md) - [CLSK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CLSK.US.md) - [ABTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ABTC.US.md) - [ETHE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETHE.US.md) - [RKLB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RKLB.US.md) - [CORZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CORZ.US.md) - [COIN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/COIN.US.md) - [SQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SQ.US.md) - [ASTS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ASTS.US.md) - [MARA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MARA.US.md) - [PL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PL.US.md) - [BTDR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTDR.US.md) - [SATS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SATS.US.md) - [GBTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GBTC.US.md) - [RIOT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RIOT.US.md) - [MSTR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSTR.US.md) - [BITF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITF.US.md) - [BTCW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCW.US.md) - [FBTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FBTC.US.md) - [BITO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITO.US.md) - [ARKB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ARKB.US.md) - [ETHA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETHA.US.md) - [BRRR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BRRR.US.md) - [BTCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCO.US.md) - [EZBC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EZBC.US.md) - [CETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CETH.US.md) - [BITB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITB.US.md) - [HODL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HODL.US.md) - [ETHW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETHW.US.md) - [IBIT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBIT.US.md) - [FETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FETH.US.md) - [CBRS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CBRS.US.md) - [OpenAI.NA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OpenAI.NA.md) ## Related News & Research - [The 180-Day Lease Holding Up SpaceX's $2 Trillion IPO](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288095214.md) - [SpaceX IPO valuation reports clash ahead of record listing](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288148394.md) - [Pension fund rejects SpaceX IPO as bubble warnings grow](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288095699.md) - [SpaceX's major AI compute deal with Anthropic could end a lot sooner than expected](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287946512.md) - [This Is SpaceX's Biggest Market, and It Might Surprise You (Spoiler Alert: It Has Nothing to Do With Space)](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288140563.md)