--- title: "The person who accurately predicted the surge in gold prices speaks out today" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/288188480.md" description: "Precious metals expert Alasdair Macleod pointed out that Western strategic oil reserves are nearing depletion, and oil prices may surge. Geopolitically, Israel's actions hinder US-Iran negotiations. In terms of gold, physical gold is rapidly flowing to China, COMEX inventories are depleting, and speculative funds are exiting, but swap dealers still bear significant short risks, potentially facing physical shortages and price shocks in the future" datetime: "2026-05-31T23:53:10.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288188480.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288188480.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288188480.md) --- # The person who accurately predicted the surge in gold prices speaks out today Author: Alasdair Macleod, precious metals expert and research director at Goldmoney. In July 2025, when gold prices were still consolidating around $3,300, he predicted that "gold is about to soar by $1,000," and three months later, the gold price accurately rose to his predicted $4,300. **The following is his speech during a media interview this week, organized based on the recording:** The only reason current oil prices can maintain around $85 to $90 is that Western countries have been depleting their strategic oil reserves, which will be close to exhaustion in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised if oil prices surge in the coming weeks. The newspapers are again saying that the U.S. and Iran are closer to reaching some sort of negotiated solution, but the "wolf is coming" story has been told too many times. The real power lies with Israel. Every time it seems a reconciliation might be reached, Israel starts bombing southern Lebanon, and the entire process collapses again. Now let's talk about gold. Gold is continuously flowing from the West to China, and at a fairly rapid pace. It was originally thought that a pullback in gold prices would lead to a decrease in gold demand, but the gold inventory in COMEX warehouses has been rapidly depleting instead. This week, Chinese media reported that "multiple banks are relaxing restrictions on gold investment." Chinese commercial banks had previously restricted this business due to insufficient physical gold to cover their obligations to clients. Now they have acquired enough gold inventory from Western capital markets to continue offering gold accumulation account services to clients. One day, we will ultimately feel the issue of physical gold shortages. The number of open contracts for COMEX gold contracts has dropped to the lowest level in 13 years, and speculative interest in gold futures has almost fallen to zero, with almost all speculators exiting the market. If these speculative funds suddenly re-enter the gold market, it would be a massive shock. Although the number of open contracts for gold has decreased, the total short risk exposure borne by swap dealers remains as high as $90 billion. There are about 24 such institutions, averaging about $3.75 billion in risk exposure per institution. When gold surged to $5,500, this figure was close to $5 billion per institution. This puts immense pressure on capital allocation in the trading department, and management is restricting risk exposure. They are reducing risk through COMEX futures and the London market (via physical exchange mechanisms), resulting in COMEX and the London market being too small to handle the current situation. The market size has become too small to manage the current conditions. Liquidity in Western markets has almost been exhausted. Meanwhile, Chinese commercial banks hold gold and distribute it to clients through account systems. From an international market perspective, this portion of gold has "disappeared." Silver tells a similar story, with the number of open contracts also at a 13-year low and maintaining low levels for several weeks, while silver inventories continue to flow from Western vaults to Asia. One day, we will suddenly find that there is no gold or silver left in the vaults. At that time, a new liquidity crisis will emerge The interpretation of the same market phenomenon is completely different between the East and the West. In the West, when bond yields rise, people believe this is unfavorable for gold, so they sell gold. In the East, however, they think that rising bond yields indicate increasing risks for the US dollar. Therefore, they sell dollars and buy gold. Similarly, when oil prices rise, the West believes this will push up inflation, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to gold sales. But in China, rising oil prices are seen as a signal of US dollar instability, which actually favors gold. This information is being communicated through central banks to large banks in New York, which have begun to "understand the signals" and are therefore reluctant to continue shorting. Analysts at these banks have started to publicly predict that gold prices will reach $6,000 by the end of the year. However, they cannot directly say that gold will skyrocket; instead, they provide predictions slightly above market consensus, so when gold prices do rise significantly, they can say, "We predicted this long ago." The stock market has risen to historically high and almost the most expensive levels, driven by credit expansion. Once credit contracts, this bubble may burst, and the stock market will collapse. So, should we "sell in May"? 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