--- title: "Single-Day Plunge of Over 10%: Is the Cost of SoftBank's Heavy Bet on OpenAI Beginning to Show?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/288679774.md" description: "SoftBank plummeted more than 11% in a single day, thrusting Masayoshi Son's high-stakes AI gamble into the spotlight. The Japanese tech giant carries $104 billion in interest-bearing debt, with its bet on OpenAI potentially accounting for 30% of its portfolio. S&P has downgraded its credit outlook to negative, and analysts bluntly state, \"Buying SoftBank is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI.\" With the cautionary tale of WeWork's multi-billion-dollar collapse still fresh, is this high-stakes gamble a wealth multiplier or a trigger for a Liquidity Crisis?" datetime: "2026-06-04T09:53:49.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288679774.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288679774.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288679774.md) --- # Single-Day Plunge of Over 10%: Is the Cost of SoftBank's Heavy Bet on OpenAI Beginning to Show? SoftBank's stock price plunged more than 11% in a single day on Thursday, putting the Japanese tech investment giant's highly leveraged strategy on artificial intelligence under the spotlight. According to CNBC, SoftBank's stock has risen about 70% cumulatively this year, at one point surpassing Toyota to become Japan's most valuable company by market capitalization. However, analysts warn that **market optimism is masking its accumulating balance sheet risks.** S&P Global Ratings downgraded SoftBank's credit outlook to negative in March of this year, citing that its massive additional investment in OpenAI would impair the company's asset liquidity and financial capacity. This sharp decline in share price has made a core question increasingly urgent: Is SoftBank's highly concentrated bet on OpenAI a lever to wealth, or a fuse that could trigger a Liquidity Crisis? ## Leveraged Bet on AI, Alarming Debt Scale The scale of this AI gamble, led by SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son, has far exceeded external expectations. As of the end of 2025, SoftBank's interest-bearing debt on a standalone basis was approximately 16.3 trillion yen (about $104 billion). In March of this year, SoftBank secured an additional $40 billion bridge loan for further investment in OpenAI and general corporate purposes. S&P Global estimates that after SoftBank's additional $30 billion investment in OpenAI, OpenAI's share in its portfolio will rise to about 30%, roughly equivalent to the weight of chip design company Arm Holdings. Gil Luria, Head of Technical Research at Davidson Capital Markets, stated, "**SoftBank has positioned itself as a highly leveraged AI bet, which holds significant upside potential but also comes with substantial risks.**" ## OpenAI Valuation Under Pressure, Liquidity Concerns Emerge SoftBank's degree of reliance on OpenAI has made some market participants uneasy. After completing a record $122 billion financing round in March of this year, OpenAI's valuation reached $852 billion. SoftBank's calculation is that if OpenAI can complete an IPO at its current valuation or higher, it will bring substantial returns. However, the risks cannot be ignored. Richard Windsor, founder of equity research firm Radio Free Mobile, warned, "SoftBank's risk exposure is continuing to expand. If OpenAI fails to meet expectations, SoftBank is very likely to face a Liquidity Crisis." Jay R. Ritter, Emeritus Professor at Warrington College of Business, articulated this logic more directly: **"Buying SoftBank is, to some extent, a leveraged bet on OpenAI. If OpenAI performs well, leverage is an aid; but if OpenAI and other investments perform poorly, leverage will backfire on SoftBank."** Luria also pointed out that if OpenAI cannot successfully IPO at its current valuation or higher, given the scale of SoftBank's exposure, it will place considerable pressure on the company. SoftBank is no stranger to the costs of concentrated bets. SoftBank's Vision Fund invested billions of dollars in the shared-office unicorn WeWork, but WeWork's valuation collapsed due to business model and corporate governance issues. Compounded by the impact of the pandemic, it filed for bankruptcy protection in the US in 2023, resulting in cumulative investment losses for SoftBank exceeding $14 billion. ## Divergent Views, Controversy Over Debt Sustainability Not all investors are pessimistic about SoftBank's prospects. Richard Kaye, Portfolio Manager at asset management firm Comgest, believes that SoftBank's assets can still adequately cover its debt obligations, with its loan-to-value (LTV) ratio maintained below 25%. "**SoftBank's debt is sustainable because its total borrowings to immediately realizable equity value ratio is below 25%,**" Kaye said, adding that lenders are still willing to use SoftBank's equity holdings as collateral for financing. He also believes that even if OpenAI disappoints, it will not trigger a solvency crisis. "OpenAI's underperformance will manifest as a one-time write-down, but it does not necessarily lead to a Liquidity Crisis, as SoftBank holds sufficient equity assets to offset such losses." Masayoshi Son himself recently defended SoftBank's aggressive AI strategy in an interview with CNBC, stating that the scale of this technological revolution is "50 times" that of the internet bubble era, and maintaining that any future correction in AI-related stocks would be a buying opportunity rather than a structural threat. ### Related Stocks - [9984.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/9984.JP.md) - [SFTBY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SFTBY.US.md) - [OpenAI.NA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OpenAI.NA.md) - [7203.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/7203.JP.md) - [TM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TM.US.md) - [SPGI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPGI.US.md) - [ARM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ARM.US.md) - [TOYOF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TOYOF.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [SoftBank Is Using OpenAI Shares To Fund Stargate: Here's Why Lenders Are Concerned](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288761613.md) - [How a lawyer at OpenAI uses OpenAI at work](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288244089.md) - [SoftBank (SFTBY) Stares Down Liquidity Crisis as Debt Pile and OpenAI Gamble Raise Red Flags](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288717753.md) - [Why it matters if OpenAI or Anthropic wins the IPO race](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288249199.md) - [SoftBank’s OpenAI bet and rising debt are raising liquidity crunch concerns](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288658102.md)