--- title: "What Does SpaceX's Sky-High Valuation Mean? It Requires 600-Fold Growth in Ten Years and a 50% Average Annual Revenue Growth Rate" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/288997969.md" description: "SpaceX is set to list on Nasdaq on June 12 with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Calculations suggest that for investors to achieve an annualized return of approximately 10%, SpaceX must generate $1.1 trillion in revenue by 2035. This implies maintaining an average annual growth rate of 50% over the next decade, representing an increase of roughly 600 times. Currently, SpaceX's annual revenue stands at only $18.7 billion, and the company is operating at a loss" datetime: "2026-06-08T03:50:19.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/288997969.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288997969.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/288997969.md) --- # What Does SpaceX's Sky-High Valuation Mean? It Requires 600-Fold Growth in Ten Years and a 50% Average Annual Revenue Growth Rate News of SpaceX's impending IPO continues to gain momentum. As planned, the space and AI company under Elon Musk will list on Nasdaq on June 12 with a market capitalization of approximately $1.75 trillion, becoming the highest-valued IPO in history. But behind this figure lies an extremely stringent arithmetic problem. According to a June 6 report by Fortune magazine, David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs, conducted a calculation using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model: If investors hope to achieve an annualized return of about 10% over the next ten years—note that this is already a fairly conservative expectation—then SpaceX's revenue must reach **$1.1 trillion** by 2035. What does $1.1 trillion signify? Currently, the company with the highest revenue in the United States is Amazon, with sales of $742 billion over the past four quarters. SpaceX needs to surpass this figure by nearly 50%. And what is SpaceX's current revenue? In 2025, it was only **$18.7 billion**, accompanied by a loss of $4.9 billion. From $18.7 billion to $1.1 trillion represents an increase of approximately 600 times, with a time window of just ten years. ## **50% Annual Growth for Ten Consecutive Years** To achieve this growth trajectory, SpaceX needs to maintain an average annual revenue growth rate of about 50% for ten consecutive years. How difficult is this? Let's make a comparison. NVIDIA is one of the fastest-growing tech companies globally in recent years. From 2024 to 2025, NVIDIA added approximately $85 billion in revenue in a single year, a feat that has already astonished the market. However, according to the aforementioned calculation path, SpaceX would need to add approximately **$360 billion** in revenue in just the final year (from 2034 to 2035)—more than four times NVIDIA's incremental growth for that year. Fortune magazine pointed out that this single-year increment is equivalent to Amazon's **total revenue growth over the past six years**. Trainer explicitly stated in his analysis that such a growth rate has no precedent in history. ## **What $1.1 Trillion Means: Equivalent to 2.4% of US GDP** Let's understand the magnitude of this figure from another perspective. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the US GDP in 2035 will be approximately $46.7 trillion. If SpaceX's revenue reaches $1.1 trillion by then, it will account for **2.4%** of the US GDP. What does this mean? According to Fortune's calculations, SpaceX's revenue scale at that time would be equivalent to 1.5 times that of the entire US utilities industry, 55% of the entertainment industry, and nearly three-quarters of the entire US transportation sector—including aviation, rail, trucking, and freight logistics. The latter includes dozens of giants such as Delta Air Lines, CSX, and FedEx. Trainer's judgment is that while large markets can indeed support significant growth, they also attract substantial competition. Alphabet, Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI, and others are all vying for share in the AI market; "it is impossible for everyone to capture several percentage points of GDP." SpaceX's S-1 prospectus mentions that its target addressable AI market size is close to **$30 trillion**. However, the larger the market, the more competitors there are, and the share each company ultimately captures is often far smaller than expected. ## **The Core Contradiction in Valuation Logic** Here lies a structural issue worth noting. The 10% annualized return expectation set in Trainer's model is already very conservative. Typically, investors demand higher returns to compensate for the risk associated with high-risk, high-uncertainty growth stocks. In other words, if the return expectation were reset using a more reasonable risk premium, the revenue target SpaceX would need to achieve would be even higher, not lower. Fortune magazine's conclusion is that SpaceX is not only the largest and most watched IPO in history but also "the most expensively priced one to date." ### Related Stocks - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [RKLB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RKLB.US.md) - [VCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VCX.US.md) - [PL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PL.US.md) - [SATS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SATS.US.md) - [ASTS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ASTS.US.md) - [DXYZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DXYZ.US.md) - [NDAQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NDAQ.US.md) - [AMZN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AMZN.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [DAL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DAL.US.md) - [CSX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CSX.US.md) - [FDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FDX.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [OpenAI.NA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OpenAI.NA.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [SpaceX or Tesla: What Will Be the Better Buy on June 12?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288640074.md) - [News Flash: You Are the Exit Liquidity for the SpaceX IPO](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288697805.md) - [SpaceX IPO running at two times oversubscribed, sources say](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288895560.md) - [EXPLAINER-How can retail investors buy shares in SpaceX's IPO?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288955544.md) - ['Better terms, better pricing': SpaceX employees band together to get primo pricing for tax-saving advice as they prepare to make millions](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288613674.md)