--- title: "Hong Kong Stock Review: Risks Continue to Unfold" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/289042949.md" description: "Hong Kong stocks are affected by external liquidity and rising expectations for U.S. Treasury yields, with risks continuing to be released. The AI sector faces deleveraging pressure due to previous large gains, crowded trading, and valuations that have already reflected future growth. The short-term market test lies in the May CPI data; if it exceeds expectations, it may trigger a second round of sell-off. Funds are flowing into high-dividend defensive sectors like domestic banks, while commodities are under pressure. The central bank has increased its gold holdings, but gold stocks are less attractive than energy stocks. Looking at the medium term, the main theme of AI has not ended, and the current situation is a cleanup of crowded trades" datetime: "2026-06-08T10:52:18.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289042949.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289042949.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289042949.md) --- # Hong Kong Stock Review: Risks Continue to Unfold Recently, the stock market has been under pressure, not because the logic of the AI industry has suddenly worsened, but because the previous gains in the AI direction were too large and the trading was too crowded. This coincided with a renewed expectation of rising interest rates in the U.S., triggering concentrated profit-taking and deleveraging. The AI industry itself is still accelerating, but many related stocks have already reflected growth expectations for the coming years. Once U.S. Treasury yields rise, the first assets to be devalued will naturally be those with high elasticity and high crowding. Of course, inflationary pressures largely stem from oil prices and the supply side, and interest rate hikes may not directly solve the problem. A more likely scenario is that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance verbally, using rhetoric to suppress inflation expectations. The biggest test for the market in the short term is the upcoming May CPI. If the data exceeds expectations again, interest rate hike expectations will further heat up, and U.S. Treasury yields may rise to another level, potentially leading to a second round of declines in the stock market. Conversely, if U.S. Treasury yields fall, the AI mainline may have a chance to recover first. The sharp decline in the South Korean stock market is a microcosm of this round of risk release. In the past period, South Korean storage, AI hardware, and semiconductor leaders have seen huge gains, and leveraged funds have also been significant. Once external interest rate expectations turn, funds will be forced to retreat, and even the best industry stories will have to yield to liquidity in the short term. Compared to the Japanese market, which may still have policy support, South Korea may not have the same level of support, so it still needs to guard against the continued spread of liquidity shocks. Hong Kong stocks are similarly dragged down by external liquidity. Today, funds naturally flowed into domestic banks and other high-dividend, defensive sectors. On the other hand, commodities are generally under pressure. It is worth noting that the domestic central bank has increased its gold reserves for 19 consecutive months, and the pace of increase in May has intensified, indicating that the official sector still has long-term allocation demand for gold. However, the central bank buying gold does not mean that gold stocks will necessarily outperform. Gold prices have corrected more than 20% from their highs, indicating that gold is no longer just a simple safe-haven asset, but is also influenced by the dollar, interest rates, positions, and liquidity. The biggest problem with gold stocks is that their dividend returns and valuation attractiveness are not as good as some energy stocks. Taking CNOOC as an example, cash flow is clearer at high oil prices, and dividends are more direct; while gold stocks, although they have price elasticity, still face issues such as costs, quality, and capital expenditures. In the short term, the stock market still needs to guard against a second round of volatility; but in the medium term, as long as AI Capex does not truly turn, this seems more like a cleansing of crowded trades rather than the end of the mainline. 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