--- title: "Ceasefire Unlikely to Restore Low Oil Prices? Nations Rush to Rebuild Stockpiles After Energy Crisis" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/289186102.md" description: "Even if a ceasefire is implemented, it will take several quarters for shipping capacity in the Strait of Hormuz to recover and for global inventories to be replenished, while many Asian countries are launching a wave of strategic petroleum reserve construction. Analysts believe that a nearly 500 million barrel inventory shortfall, combined with national restocking demands, will keep the global oil market tight for an extended period, serving as the core force supporting oil prices above pre-war levels" datetime: "2026-06-09T12:02:50.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289186102.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289186102.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289186102.md) --- # Ceasefire Unlikely to Restore Low Oil Prices? Nations Rush to Rebuild Stockpiles After Energy Crisis Even as tensions in the Middle East ease, global oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels—governments around the world are racing to expand their strategic petroleum reserves, and this wave of restocking will keep the oil market tight for the long term. Oil prices remain high, recently experiencing sharp volatility due to renewed threats to the ceasefire agreement. According to a recent report by The Wall Street Journal, **even if a peace deal is ultimately reached, approximately 100 million barrels of crude oil remain backed up in the Strait of Hormuz awaiting transport, and it will take time for shipping and insurance industries to resume normal operations, meaning supply pressures will not dissipate in the short term.** The more profound impact comes from the demand side. **Several Asian countries, including Pakistan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and India, are accelerating the establishment or expansion of strategic petroleum reserves, with Japan announcing $10 billion in aid to support Asian nations in building oil storage facilities.** Analysts believe that this round of restocking will push global oil inventories to remain at levels higher than those before the war for an extended period, thereby providing sustained support for oil prices. ## Massive Supply Gap, Long Road to Restocking The supply gap left by this energy shock is substantial. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights data, nearly 500 million barrels of crude and refined product inventories consumed outside the Persian Gulf region need to be replenished, and this figure increases by 5.8 million barrels for every additional day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. **Even if a daily supply surplus of 1 million barrels were to magically appear in the market, it would still take more than a year for global inventories to recover to pre-war levels.** The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that even if the strait reopens this month, the supply shortage in the oil market will persist until the fourth quarter of this year, when a small surplus may finally emerge, allowing rapidly depleting inventories everywhere to begin replenishing. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, stated that **it will take four months for traffic in the strait to recover to 80% of pre-war levels, with full restoration not expected until the first or second quarter of 2027.** Saudi Aramco provided a similar timeline expectation. ## Uneven Production Recovery, Technical Bottlenecks for Some Producers Regarding production capacity increase, situations vary among oil-producing countries. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates both possess spare production capacity and can raise output relatively quickly. The UAE withdrew from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last month and is no longer bound by production quotas, allowing it to freely expand extraction scales. In contrast, the production recovery process in Iraq and Kuwait will be slower. Both countries rely heavily on foreign oilfield service companies and need to re-pressurize aging, low-pressure oil wells, involving significant technical difficulties and time costs. Rick Bandazian, founder of the trading analysis platform Offsides Macro, stated, "I think we are at a fairly critical juncture." WTI futures data he tracks shows that **oil market traders are still generally betting on further price increases, but the aggressiveness of long positions has decreased from the peak seen in mid-March this year.** ## Nations Race to Build Reserves, Asia Becomes Main Battlefield for Restocking This energy shock is profoundly changing national energy security strategies, with restocking actions being particularly intensive in Asia. Pakistan previously had no strategic petroleum reserves but now plans to establish its first reserve system, intending to invite international oil producers to build a new "Energy City" near Port Qasim in Karachi to hold commercial inventories. The Philippines is also establishing its first strategic petroleum reserve plan. The Indonesian government announced it will build new oil storage facilities to expand inventories, and India is also increasing its reserve scale. Japan has adopted a more proactive regional layout, committing to provide $10 billion in financial aid to support Asian countries in building oil storage facilities and petroleum inventories. Kevin Book, co-founder of energy consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners, pointed out: "Importing country governments are asking only one question: 'What can we do to ensure this situation does not happen again?'" ## Energy Transition Accelerates, But Short-Term Dominance of Oil Remains Unshaken This crisis is also accelerating the reevaluation of energy structures by various countries. EU ministerial officials are discussing whether to expand oil and gas production within the region, a topic that was almost unimaginable just a few years ago. Meanwhile, cost-effective Chinese electric vehicles and solar panels offer more options for countries hoping to reduce their dependence on fossil fuel imports. Data from the think tank Ember shows that in March this year, 50 countries set historical records for imports of Chinese solar modules. Historical experience indicates that energy shocks often give rise to deep structural shifts. The two oil crises of the 1970s forced the United States to vigorously promote energy efficiency improvements and shift toward alternative energy sources. Today, oil accounts for only about 1% of U.S. electricity generation, whereas in the early 1970s, this proportion was close to one-fifth. However, a genuine energy transition takes time. Before that happens, expanding inventories and ensuring supply security remain the overwhelming primary impulse for governments worldwide, and this will be the core logic supporting oil prices at elevated levels for a longer period. ### Related Stocks - [03097.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03097.HK.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [03175.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03175.HK.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Oil settles lower on continued hopes for Middle East deal](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289228205.md) - [Oil extends losses, falling more than 3.5%](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289224549.md) - [Oil edges up on US-Iran deal uncertainty, Oman's Mina al Fahal loading suspension](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288807263.md) - [IMF says oil price currently close to baseline April forecast](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288745673.md) - [Trump warns gas prices may stay high through midterms](https://longbridge.com/en/news/288912594.md)