--- title: "SemiAnalysis Report Cites Delays in Two Key Technologies, Triggering Sharp Decline in \"Optoelectronics\" and Sparking Heated Online Debate on CPO" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/289258610.md" description: "A SemiAnalysis report stated that NVIDIA's 800VDC power architecture and the mass production of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) would be delayed until 2028-2029, causing a sharp drop in the optical communication sector. Despite optimism from NVIDIA executives regarding CPO, the market remained volatile due to lowered expectations. Analysts pointed out that the delay might redirect capital toward traditional pluggable optical modules and the NPO (Near-Package Optics) sector" datetime: "2026-06-10T01:51:12.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289258610.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289258610.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289258610.md) --- # SemiAnalysis Report Cites Delays in Two Key Technologies, Triggering Sharp Decline in "Optoelectronics" and Sparking Heated Online Debate on CPO A report from SemiAnalysis, a star analyst firm in the AI industry chain, pointing to delays in two core technological paths for AI data centers, triggered severe volatility in the optical communication sector on June 10, while also sparking intense debate in the investment and industrial communities about future technical routes and investment opportunities. The report argued that **shipments of NVIDIA's 800VDC power architecture will be delayed until 2028, and the scaled mass production of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) may be postponed to 2028 or even 2029**. The simultaneous downward revision of these two expectations caught the market off guard. Following the news, **US-listed optical communication stocks generally suffered heavy losses.** AAOI (Aoptix Technologies/AoFiber, referred to here as Xiangmao Optoelectronics/AAOI) fell by as much as 17% in a single day, Lumentum dropped about 8%, and companies named in the report with cautious outlooks, such as Himax (HIMX), Navitas Semiconductor Corp, and Wolfspeed, also faced significant pressure. At the same time the SemiAnalysis report was released, interview content with NVIDIA executives was also published. According to Tae Kim, a senior semiconductor and technology investment journalist, Gilad Shainer, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA's Networking Business, expressed a distinctly optimistic stance on the prospects of CPO at Computex 2026, stating directly that "CPO is currently the most exciting technology," and that volume shipments would begin in the second half of the year. **This sparked a fierce debate on social media regarding the CPO timeline.** Notably, several market observers pointed out that the delay in CPO does not mean the disappearance of demand for optical interconnects, but rather **is more likely to redirect capital flows back to traditional pluggable optical modules and the NPO (Near-Package Optics) sector**—a logic that led some investors to seek opportunities in mistakenly sold-off stocks amidst panic selling. ## Core of SemiAnalysis Report: Two Major Technical Paths Delayed In this research note sent to institutional clients, SemiAnalysis provided two core judgments with profound market implications. **800VDC Power Architecture Delayed Until After 2028.** The report pointed out that the shipment window for the single-ended 800VDC power design, which NVIDIA originally planned to adopt on a large scale, has shifted significantly later. Hyperscalers currently prefer to continue using mature low-voltage solutions or gradually transition to 400VDC, rather than rushing to switch to 800VDC. The report believes that the marginal efficiency gains of 800VDC under current grid power supply conditions are insufficient to support its system complexity. In contrast, 400VDC products are expected to start ramping up in volume in the second quarter of 2026, with significant growth in 2027. **CPO Mass Production Schedule Significantly Lags Behind Market Expectations.** The report stated that CPO shipments in 2027 will be significantly lower than previous aggressive forecasts, with **the timeline for scaled mass production potentially delayed until 2028 or even 2029.** The main bottlenecks are concentrated on three levels: > Optical engine connection yield (approximately 95% in an optimistic scenario, but the CPO volume driven by a single ASIC remains extremely limited), ASIC integration difficulty, and overall cost-effectiveness. Shipments of Scale-out CPO switches face the risk of downward revision, and Sidecar shipments relying on new platforms like Rubin Ultra/Kyber will also be delayed to the 2028 window. At the individual stock level, SemiAnalysis maintained a relatively positive view on Amphenol, Vertiv, and Legrand, while holding a cautious attitude towards Lumentum, Himax, Navitas Semiconductor, and Wolfspeed. However, the report itself acknowledged that **CPO as an important direction for future data center network architecture has not been negated; the core reason for the delay is that engineering challenges have not yet been fully overcome**, rather than a disappearance of demand. Meanwhile, the report also pointed out that **some NPO (Near Package Optics) projects may accelerate.** ## NVIDIA Executive Publicly Contradicts, Tae Kim Interview Draws Attention Just as the SemiAnalysis report circulated widely among institutions, senior semiconductor and technology investment journalist Tae Kim published a transcript of a one-on-one interview with Gilad Shainer, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA's Networking Business, during Computex on his Substack column. The content stood in stark contrast to SemiAnalysis's judgment. Shainer stated in the interview, "The most exciting thing today is Co-Packaged Optics, which is the leading edge of technology." He further revealed that NVIDIA is ready to start shipments, and partner Lambda has confirmed via blog post that it has received CPO switches. CPO volume shipments will accelerate in the second half of the year, extending from scale-out to scale-up scenarios. **"If it were up to me, I would want to use CPO everywhere optical networks are used."** Tae Kim added in the article that Shainer's overall demeanor and body language during the interview showed high enthusiasm for the near-term and long-term volume ramp-up of CPO. He stated that **this remark "seems to directly contradict the narrative of SemiAnalysis."** This discrepancy plunged the market into an information battle. User @qinbafrank on social platform X pointed out that Bernstein had already clearly stated in its mid-May report that cloud providers would not sacrifice system reliability for energy savings, and no cloud provider currently plans to deploy CPO on a large scale in 2026-2027. **"If you had read the Bernstein report in detail, you wouldn't be surprised by today's SemiAnalysis report."** ## Heated Online Debate: Is CPO Delay Bad News or a Mistaken Sell-Off? The market volatility triggered by the report quickly spread to social media, with clear divergences in views surrounding the investment logic of the CPO delay. **Bearish View: Yield and Reliability Are Real Bottlenecks.** SemiAnalysis emphasized in the report that under the CPO architecture, optical engines and large ASICs worth tens of thousands of dollars are co-packaged on the same substrate. Once an optical engine fails due to laser aging or fiber damage, the entire motherboard often needs to be removed and returned to the factory for maintenance. The maintenance costs and downtime risks are far higher than those of traditional pluggable modules. This engineering challenge is considered the core obstacle preventing large-scale implementation of CPO in the short term. **Bullish View: CPO Delay Actually Benefits Pluggable Modules and NPO.** User @TomSzczypka on social platform X posted an analysis stating, " **If CPO arrives late, data still needs to be transmitted, and AI clusters cannot wait two years. Hyperscalers will buy more pluggable modules and NPO for a longer period. The money doesn't disappear; it just changes pockets.**" He also pointed out that the fact that AAOI's drop (17%) far exceeded Lumentum's (8%) on the day itself indicates that the market's selling that day was not based on rational analysis, but rather a cleansing of the weakest holdings. User @michaelsikand stated that currently, any revenue generated from CPO by photonics companies is zero, and the current high growth comes from the huge, unmet NPO opportunity. "The timeline may be delayed, but the TAM (Total Addressable Market) will not." **Voices Questioning the Report's Logic Also Exist.** User @cherryPayment published a long post pointing out internal contradictions in the SemiAnalysis report: On one hand, the report claims the supply chain is not ready in 2027; on the other hand, it predicts that Celestial AI (acquired by Marvell) will reach a $1 billion revenue run rate by the end of 2028, and Amazon has signed contracts for Trainium 4. **"You can't suddenly have $1 billion at the end of 2028 when the supply chain wasn't ready for anything in 2027."** He also pointed out that SemiAnalysis's target audience is procurement decision-makers at hyperscalers, and its conclusion is "no need to go all-in yet," rather than a judgment on investment timing for the capital markets. "They are analyzing deployment pace, not investment timing." X platform user @Herman Jin criticized the timeliness of information from US research institutions, believing that the delays in CPO and 800VDC are "a matter of time." Relevant information had long been circulating in institutional circles, and the SemiAnalysis report merely formalized known information. ## Unexpected Beneficiaries: Copper Connections and Pluggable Modules Against the backdrop of broad market pressure, some analysts turned their attention to potential beneficiaries of the CPO delay. User @qinbafrank sorted out that **more realistic revenue opportunities in 2026 are concentrated in 1.6T pluggable modules**, LPO/NPO, light sources, testing, PCB, ABF, and CCL segments. "Optics will not immediately eliminate copper, nor will copper hold all scenarios forever. Different distances and system levels will choose different solutions." Lumentum's CEO recently also stated that interest in NPO from non-NVIDIA customers has increased significantly in the past two months. User @RealNickMugalli analyzed that at 1.6T rates and 200G per channel, copper cables have reached their physical limits even with retimer technology. Optical solutions will become a mandatory option rather than an optional one within reasonable distances, and the potential market size for NPO may even exceed that of CPO. SemiAnalysis also pointed out in the report that some NPO projects may accelerate, and 400VDC products will begin volume shipments in the second quarter of 2026. For companies like Amphenol and Vertiv, the report maintained a relatively positive stance, believing they benefit from sustained demand during the 400VDC transition period. User @TomSzczypka cited industry chain data from this week to corroborate that demand for AI infrastructure has not weakened: > Fujikura raised prices for data center cables due to simultaneous orders from almost all US hyperscalers; King Slide's rack rail revenue increased by 47% month-over-month; Google ordered 6 million TPUs from Intel; SK Hynix and NVIDIA signed a multi-year storage cooperation agreement, etc. > > **"The real bottlenecks in AI are power, storage, and GPU. None of these three have worsened today."** > > > > > > Meanwhile, @tuolaji2024 posted on social platform X that **memory (HBM/DRAM), as the true physical bottleneck, sees its tight supply-and-demand situation completely unaffected by this technical delay event.** Analysts pointed out that, synthesizing various viewpoints, the market volatility triggered by this SemiAnalysis report **reflects more of a recalibration of the technical roadmap timeline, rather than a fundamental reversal of overall demand for AI data centers.** Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market carries risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. 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