---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline, U.S. May CPI Set to Be Released, Oracle to Announce Earnings After Hours"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/289320482.md"
description: "On June 10th, before the US stock market opened, the three major stock index futures all fell. The market focus is on the upcoming US May CPI data, which is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, returning to the \"4 era,\" leading to a failure of interest rate cut expectations, and the Federal Reserve may face renewed pressure to raise interest rates. In addition, there are reports of significant progress in US-Iran negotiations"
datetime: "2026-06-10T11:40:03.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289320482.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289320482.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289320482.md)
---

# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline, U.S. May CPI Set to Be Released, Oracle to Announce Earnings After Hours

## Pre-Market Market Trends

1.  As of June 10 (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are all down before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 1.01%, S&P 500 futures are down 1.14%, and Nasdaq futures are down 1.69%.

![21.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260610/1781091332355138.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, Germany's DAX index is down 1.10%, the UK's FTSE 100 index is down 0.75%, France's CAC 40 index is down 0.78%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 1.01%.

![22.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260610/1781091345983566.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 2.01%, priced at $89.97 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 1.71%, priced at $93.01 per barrel.

![23.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260610/1781091349891297.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**U.S. May inflation fears return to the "4 era"! Wall Street's rate cut dreams shattered, the Federal Reserve may be forced to resume "rate hike measures."** As the cost of living for American consumers continues to rise, inflation data expected to be released on Wednesday is predicted to breach another unpleasant threshold. If Wall Street's consensus forecast is accurate, the U.S. CPI for May is expected to rise 0.5% month-on-month; the year-on-year increase is expected to reach 4.2%. This would mark the first time since May 2023 that the CPI has surpassed 4%, and it would also set the highest reading since April of that year. Of course, compared to an overall inflation rate of only 2.4% a year ago, the significant surge in this round of data is largely attributed to the skyrocketing energy costs triggered by the Middle East conflict. However, even the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to see a year-on-year increase of 2.9% in May. As rising oil prices begin to transmit throughout the economy, there is growing expectation that inflation will not subside in the short term. The current federal funds rate remains relatively high, and the resurgence of inflation will mean that the Federal Reserve not only loses room for rate cuts but also faces pressure to tighten policies again. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve restarting rate hikes within the year is no longer a low-probability event. For the Federal Reserve's decision-makers, the June to July meetings will become a key observation window. If the May inflation data is confirmed and the June data continues to rise, the Federal Reserve is very likely to take preemptive rate hike measures in the third quarter to anchor inflation expectations.

**After renewed clashes between the U.S. and Iran, reports indicate significant progress in negotiations.** According to media reports on the 9th, citing U.S. officials and several diplomats, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, mediated through Pakistan, have shown "significant progress," with a change in the U.S. stance on the issue of Iran's enriched uranium disposal: the U.S. no longer requires Iran to transport its high-enriched uranium stockpile to other countries but instead collaborates with the International Atomic Energy Agency to dilute it Reports indicate that the likelihood of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran is much greater than previously expected, with both sides currently engaged in "bargaining" primarily around the four demands put forth by the U.S. However, despite U.S. officials claiming "significant progress" in the negotiations, there remain considerable differences between the two parties. Iran has requested the lifting of sanctions and the release of its frozen overseas assets before a final agreement, but the U.S. is unlikely to agree to these terms. Moreover, recent developments regarding clashes between the U.S. and Israel with Iran may pose new obstacles to reaching an agreement.

**Several top investment banks on Wall Street warn: U.S. stocks face a risk of sharp decline.** Data shows that the current momentum trading long positions in U.S. stocks have reached historical extremes, while short positions are relatively low, leading to an extremely imbalanced market structure. Coupled with persistently high interest rates and a narrowing market breadth, a reversal in sentiment could trigger significant volatility as funds concentrate on closing positions. Barclays predicts that the current round of de-risking by funds may reach its largest scale to date, and the market will continue to face pressure this week. Morgan Stanley has downgraded its short-term rating on U.S. stocks to tactical cautious, indicating that technology stocks face profit-taking pressure. At the same time, the U.S. stock market is experiencing a new wave of IPOs, with a large number of AI companies going public, diverting market liquidity and further intensifying adjustment pressure. Citigroup stated that the previous sharp decline only slightly repaired risk exposure, and bullish positions in the Nasdaq remain relatively high, leading to intense long-short battles. Overall, the risk of U.S. stocks at high levels continues to accumulate, and under the multiple pressures of crowded positions, new stock expansions, and high interest rates, the risk of short-term fluctuations and corrections is increasing.

**Goldman Sachs completely concedes! Removes 2026 rate cut forecast, warns that the Federal Reserve may be forced to restart rate hikes.** Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius, in a recent report, canceled the bank's previous forecast of two rate cuts in 2026, replacing it with predictions of a 25 basis point cut in June and December 2027. The catalyst for this shift was the strong non-farm payroll report for May. Goldman Sachs has not only postponed the timing of the rate cuts but also doubled the probability of a slight rate hike by the Federal Reserve from the previous 10% to 20%. Although the bank does not consider rate hikes as its "baseline scenario," this move indicates that the probability distribution of the Federal Reserve's potential policy direction is leaning towards a more hawkish stance. Regarding the risk of rate hikes, Hatzius wrote: "Resilient economic activity and employment data have also lowered the threshold for rate hikes. This is not because the data suggests a risk of overheating in the economy, but because a stronger economic starting point reduces the risk that rate hikes could ultimately become a 'costly mistake.'"

**Citigroup warns: Gold prices may fall to $3,500.** The speed of gold's decline has exceeded market expectations. Spot gold fell below the $4,200 mark during the day, and as of the time of writing, it was at $4,167.82 per ounce. This year's gains have been completely erased, with a cumulative decline of over 2%. Citigroup has lowered its three-month target price for gold from $4,300 per ounce to $4,000. The bank warns that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues until the end of summer, the shrinking demand for gold purchases could push prices down to $3,500 per ounce. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data has driven the dollar to a nearly two-month high, putting additional pressure on gold priced in dollars. This marks the second time in just one month that Citigroup has changed its forecast for gold prices. In mid-May, Citigroup publicly stated a bearish outlook for gold in the short term while predicting that gold prices would reach $4,300 per ounce in the next three months

## Individual Stock News

**Well-known institutions are bearish! Optical communication stocks are soft before the market opens.** As of the time of writing on Wednesday before the U.S. stock market opens, Ciena (CIEN.US), Lumentum (LITE.US), Coherent (COHR.US), Nokia (NOK.US) fell nearly 2%, Corning (GLW.US) fell nearly 3%, Marvell Technology (MRVL.US), POET Technologies (POET.US), and Credo Technology (CRDO.US) fell nearly 4%. In terms of news, the star analysis agency in the AI industry chain, SemiAnalysis, released a report pointing to delays in two core technology paths for AI data centers, stating that the shipment of NVIDIA's 800VDC power architecture will be delayed until 2028, and the mass production of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) may be postponed until 2028 or even 2029. However, executives from NVIDIA's networking division expressed a completely opposite optimistic view on the prospects of CPO, stating that "CPO is currently the most exciting technology" and that large-scale shipments will begin in the second half of the year.

**Tech stocks broadly decline before the market opens.** As of the time of writing on Wednesday before the U.S. stock market opens, Oracle (ORCL.US), AMD (AMD.US), TSMC (TSM.US), Intel (INTC.US), and Qualcomm (QCOM.US) fell over 3%, Salesforce (CRM.US), ASML (ASML.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), and Broadcom (AVGO.US) fell over 2%. In addition, memory chip stocks collectively declined, with Micron Technology (MU.US) and Western Digital (WDC.US) falling nearly 4%, and Seagate Technology (STX.US) and SanDisk (SNDK.US) falling over 2%.

**"AI shovel sellers" transform into "AI infrastructure banks"! OpenAI reportedly negotiating a $500 billion lease to build data centers, with NVIDIA (NVDA.US) providing financial guarantees.** OpenAI, which is preparing for an IPO, is in deep negotiations for an unprecedented data center lease project located on federal land in Pike County, southern Ohio, with a planned total capacity of up to 10 gigawatts and an estimated construction cost of at least $500 billion. This is not only OpenAI's largest infrastructure layout to date but also marks a new phase in the global AI arms race where "capacity equals competitiveness." The uniqueness of this transaction lies in NVIDIA's rare role design. According to insiders, NVIDIA will not only supply all GPU hardware for the facility but will also provide credit guarantees for OpenAI's lease payments and SB Energy's project financing for the first time using its balance sheet, creating a new model for chip manufacturers to deeply engage in infrastructure financing. At the same time, Google is also providing backstop arrangements for competitor Anthropic's approximately $35 billion TPU leasing obligations, with the financial binding scale between AI giants and chip manufacturers rising from "investment" to "balance sheet-level guarantees." **AI demand remains strong! Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC.US) reports a 30% year-on-year revenue growth in May.** According to data released by global wafer foundry giant TSMC, its revenue in May increased by 30% year-on-year to NT$416.98 billion (approximately US$13.2 billion), reflecting the sustained strong demand driven by the global race to build artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. The company's revenue for April and May combined grew by approximately 24% year-on-year, while analysts expect its second-quarter revenue to increase by 35% year-on-year. TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei expressed confidence in the growth prospects for the next few years, benefiting from the strong demand for computing power and advanced semiconductors driven by the AI boom. Wei emphasized multiple times that even with the addition of advanced process or advanced packaging capacity in the United States, TSMC will be unable to meet the nearly endless demand for AI-driven computing power infrastructure for many years. This echoes the remarks made by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, who stated that the company is still limited by insufficient supply capacity.

**Hollywood's "century merger" faces obstacles again! Paramount (PSKY.US) acquisition of Warner (WBD.US) under EU scrutiny, with Middle Eastern funding as a key focus.** The European Union is reviewing Paramount's $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), with regulators investigating whether Middle Eastern funds are providing financial support for the deal. The EU's FSR aims to prevent companies funded by sovereign states (such as oil-rich Gulf countries) from distorting fair competition within the EU. If regulators find issues, a comprehensive investigation may be launched, and Paramount may need to take remedial measures to alleviate regulatory concerns. This Hollywood "century merger" is facing numerous legal obstacles. At the end of March this year, the U.S. Department of Justice issued a subpoena for information on how the merger would affect film and television production output, content copyrights, streaming competition, and the cinema industry. Additionally, California, New York, and several other U.S. states are preparing to file lawsuits to block the deal. The UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has also formally launched an investigation into the transaction.

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30 U.S. May CPI data

Beijing time 23:00 U.S. June IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index PCSI

## Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: Oracle (ORCL.US)

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