---
title: "Investing in God: SpaceX's Valuation"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/289679105.md"
description: "SpaceX officially listed on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, with an IPO price of $135 per share, raising $75 billion and achieving a valuation of $1.77 trillion, marking the largest IPO in history. Its market cap briefly surpassed $2 trillion, making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. The valuation relies on a 'sum-of-the-parts' approach covering Starlink, space launch, and AI businesses, with analysts projecting massive growth by 2040 to justify current high multiples."
datetime: "2026-06-14T04:02:11.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/289679105.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/289679105.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/289679105.md)
---

# Investing in God: SpaceX's Valuation

Author: Chen Li/Ge Xiaoyuan; Source: Chen Li lichen

Yesterday, the largest IPO in human history concluded. Money flowed to space, and also to one person.

## A Giant Company Goes Public

On June 12, 2026, SpaceX officially listed on Nasdaq, stock code SPCX.

The offering price was $135 per share, raising $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.77 trillion—the largest IPO in history, bar none. On its first day of trading, it opened at $174, a surge of 29%, and subsequently closed up about 19%, briefly pushing its market capitalization past $2 trillion, ranking sixth among global listed companies, surpassing JPMorgan Chase and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.

The SpaceX logo was displayed in Times Square.

Humanity has propelled a rocket company to the very center of the financial universe. Simultaneously, Elon Musk's personal wealth has undergone a historic leap. Forbes estimates that after SpaceX's IPO, Musk's stock holdings were worth approximately $866 billion, and with Tesla and other assets, his total net worth exceeds $1.1 trillion. For the first time in human history, an individual's wealth has crossed the trillion-dollar threshold. To grasp this magnitude, $1.1 trillion is equivalent to approximately 8 trillion yuan, roughly 8,000 years of the average per capita disposable income of Chinese residents in 2024. Musk has become the world's first "trillionaire." All of this was accomplished in just one trading day. Is SpaceX's market capitalization based on a segmented valuation? Where does the $1.77 trillion figure come from? The standard Wall Street approach is the "sum-of-the-parts" method, which involves breaking SpaceX down into three business segments, valuing each segment separately, and then adding them together. The first segment: Starlink. Currently SpaceX's only profitable business and the cash anchor for its overall valuation. In 2025, Starlink's revenue is projected to reach $11.387 billion, a 50% year-on-year increase, with an operating profit of $4.4 billion. Its user base surpassed 10.3 million in the first quarter of this year, doubling from a year ago, and currently has no competitors of similar size. The industry generally believes its potential market size is as high as $1.6 trillion. The second segment: Space launch business. Falcon series rockets, Dragon spacecraft, and Starship. In 2025, the space sector generated $4.086 billion in revenue and is currently still unprofitable, but reusable rocket technology constitutes a very deep competitive moat. The third segment: AI business (formerly xAI). In February 2026, SpaceX completed the merger with Musk's xAI, incorporating the Grok large language model and AI computing center. The AI ​​sector is currently experiencing huge losses—a loss of $6.3 billion for the entire year of 2025, and capital expenditures reaching a staggering $7.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Adding these three segments together, based on approximately $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio (P/S) is about 90-107 times, higher than any company in the S&P 500. However, what truly justifies this valuation is that investment banks have extended the timeline to 2040. The potential market for SpaceX's three main businesses is projected to reach $28.5 trillion. During the IPO roadshow, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley shared their forecasting models with top institutional investors: SpaceX's revenue in 2040 could reach $3.4 trillion, and adjusted EBITDA could exceed $2.7 trillion. Both institutions unanimously predict that revenue will approach $160 billion in 2028, and Goldman Sachs expects it to exceed $470 billion in 2030. Why are analysts extending their forecasts to 14 years into the future? Because today's financial data simply cannot support this valuation. With current revenue, the price-to-sales ratio is already the highest in the S&P 500. Only by looking ahead to 2040 can the numbers be reconciled. This valuation model implicitly assumes that over the next 14 years, Musk and his team will consistently make correct judgments, navigating all uncertainties such as AI, space exploration, regulation, and competition, to deliver on that almost unimaginable achievement. What does 14 years mean? In 2012, SpaceX had just completed its first docking with the International Space Station. Starlink didn't exist yet, and xAI was a pipe dream. No one could have predicted SpaceX's future back then. But today's investment banks demand that you trust their predictions for 2040. Only a god can make time less important. And only a god is worth betting your money today on the future 14 years from now. Invest in God. Now look at another number: 85.1%. This is the percentage of voting rights Musk controls through his super dual-class share structure. Regardless of how much outside shareholders hold, Musk has the final say on any key decision. The board cannot restrain him, and shareholders cannot veto him. The pricing method of this IPO itself was a signal. Musk directly announced a fixed offering price of $135 per share, rejecting the industry-standard "pricing-roadshow-adjustment" process, and telling the entire market with a simple "accept or reject" statement: the pricing power is mine. The result? Subscription demand exceeded $250 billion, nearly four times oversubscription. The market did not resist, willingly scrambling to buy. An institutional analyst directly pointed out: "Nearly 85% of the voting rights means that SpaceX will be Musk's 'one-man empire,' with the company driven by Musk's personal will rather than shareholder interests." But why are investors still willing to buy? Because all the promises he made have come true. In 2002, Musk founded SpaceX, claiming he would build reusable orbital rockets—at the time, everyone thought it was a pipe dream. Aerospace engineers had been researching for decades without success; what could a Silicon Valley entrepreneur possibly achieve? In 2008, SpaceX suffered three consecutive launch failures and was on the verge of bankruptcy; the fourth launch that same year was successful, saving the company. Since then: The successful vertical recovery of the Falcon 9 first-stage rocket (2015) is considered a watershed moment in human spaceflight history; in 2024, the Starship booster was precisely gripped by the launch pad's "chopstick robotic arm," realizing Musk's vision from eight years prior, to global acclaim. He said he would build a global satellite internet—Starlink. Today, it has over 10 million paying users, and its services are used in aircraft, ships, and military operations, such as providing communications for the Ukrainian conflict. Musk's valuation premium is the market's pricing of a historical record: this man turned the impossible into possible, and more than once. Let's conduct a thought experiment: If Musk leaves SpaceX tomorrow, all business data remains unchanged, Starlink is still operating, rockets are still launching, and AI is still burning through cash—is SpaceX still worth $1.77 trillion? The answer is clearly no. Ordinary investors buying SPCX, ostensibly investing in a space and AI company, are actually casting a vote of confidence in a specific human individual. You're not just investing in a company; you're investing in a person, or rather—investing in a god. The Age of Supermen is Coming. Yuval Noah Harari, author of \*Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind\*, proposed the concept of Homo Deus (or Homo Deus) in his sequel, \*Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow\*. He believes that humanity will split into two classes—a small number of "supermen" (Homo Deus) who master algorithms, data, and capital, and the majority of ordinary people who will be constantly replaced by the system and gradually lose their economic value. Looking back at SpaceX's IPO, this framework is unsettlingly accurate. The first layer: Musk himself is a sample of the age of supermen. His life possesses the basic structure of a myth: descending to earth (South African immigrant), overcoming numerous hardships (three launch failures, near bankruptcy), creating miracles (the successful recovery of Falcon 9, breaking decades-long conclusions), and proclaiming the promised land (Mars). This is not a metaphor; it is a true narrative. Once a myth takes shape, it has the power to spread. When a person's actions themselves are a story, that story will be recounted, amplified, and believed. The second layer: the story told by God can be spread as faith. Many investors involved in SpaceX are not buying the financial model, but the story itself—Mars colonization, a backup of human civilization, space infrastructure, AI dominating the universe. These narratives did not exist before Musk spoke them; after he spoke them, they became assets that could be priced. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley simply translated this story into investment banking language using the figure of "$3.4 trillion by 2040." Predictive models are the shell of rationality; myth is the core within. The third and darkest layer: ordinary people are using their wealth to fund the accelerated replacement of their own systems. Yuval Noah Harari, in \*Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow\*, proposes "dataism": once a system accumulates enough physiological and psychological data, its understanding of individuals will surpass humanity's understanding of itself. At that point, humanity's economic value will be replaced by the system—not exploited, but rendered "unusable." The logical loop is this: SpaceX's valuation includes xAI—an entity burning through $7.7 billion per quarter to develop AI. Ordinary investors buying SPCX are using their wealth to support a system whose ultimate goal is to replace themselves. Ordinary people are using their savings to fund the accelerated replacement of their own machines. This is an absurd logic, but it is rigorous. Retail investors who bought SPCX shares were, in a sense, building their own factories to make themselves unemployed. Harari outlined this in his book, and SpaceX's IPO made it a tangible reality that could be traded on trading platforms. Of course, there's a very real counter-argument: Musk is indeed amazing; buying his shares resulted in a profit. Alphabet, an early investor in SpaceX, saw a nearly 100-fold return in about 10 years. On its first day of trading, SpaceX rose 19%, while Virgin Galactic fell 25%, Rocket Lab fell 8.8%, and Intuitive Machines fell 10.3%. Capital flowed to the strongest performer, leaving others in the shadows. This is a typical characteristic of the superhuman economy: winner-takes-all, the Matthew effect accelerating at an unprecedented rate. But even gods have flaws. Musk's personal decisions have repeatedly had a dramatic impact on the market: Tesla's stock price fluctuated by more than 60% before and after the Twitter acquisition. His relationship with the US government has created unpredictable policy variables. He simultaneously manages SpaceX, Tesla, X, xAI, Neuralink, and The Boring Company—his attention is limited. Investing in a god is essentially entrusting the fate of your wealth to one person's judgment. This person is very intelligent, but also human; they get tired, make mistakes, and may make bad decisions at some point. Some say, "There are those who believe Musk has the Midas touch, and there are tech traders—they check and balance each other to some extent." Believers and arbitrageurs are on the same boat, both waiting for the next miracle, and both calculating when to get off. Whether wealth ultimately increases or decreases is an open-ended question with no standard answer. Conclusion: The Elephant in the Room SpaceX's IPO is not the end, but the beginning. It foreshadows a new investment paradigm: in the AI ​​era, more and more companies rely heavily on the cognition and judgment of a single founder, and this reliance will be openly priced by the capital market. OpenAI will go public, Anthropic will go public, and more "superhuman companies" will enter the public eye. Traditional valuation systems—DCF, comparable company method, sum-of-the-parts—do not leave a separate line for "founder premium": Starlink is worth N billion, the space business is worth N billion, the AI ​​business is worth N billion, Musk personally… (blank). But this line does exist, and it may be the largest one. When analysts anchor their predictions to 2040, and ordinary investors follow suit, this act itself is a collective confirmation of the existence of a "superman"—we believe this person can navigate 14 years of uncertainty and bring our wealth to the other side. This isn't in any traditional valuation model. But it's the elephant in the room; everyone sees it, but nobody knows how to put it in Excel. In the AI ​​era, investing in a "god" may be becoming an increasingly objective and widespread fact. How to view a superman, how to invest in a superman, how to price a superman—these are questions the capital market must seriously answer in the next decade. Just yesterday, that sign lit up in Times Square. The countdown has begun.

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